Monday 10th January
USDJPY is still trading higher and the recent correction appears to be in a triangle formation. Triangles can only occur in wave B or wave 4, therefore the recent correction appears to be just a short term pullback. We may look to go long at the 115.92 level, however, it may only have a short distance to travel to the upside. We will keep this on our radar this week for a trading opportunity.
Tuesday 4th January
The USDJPY is moving close to invalidating the bearish head and shoulders formation, any high above the 115.53 resistance will indicate a continuation to the upside. Equities are trading near or at record highs which decreases the demand for the JPY whilst the DXY is also maintaining its strength – these both indicate a continuation to the upside here. We will let this continue to play out over the next couple of days.
Wednesday 29th December
The USDJPY is moving close to the invalidation level for the head and shoulders formation at 115.56. A move lower will indicate a risk off move in the market which is a possibility due to the negative fundamentals in the media at the moment. We are watching JPY pairs for an indication of a sell opportunity.
Thursday 23rd December
There has been no real significant change on the USDJPY, however the head and shoulders structure is still in play. The USDCAD and USDCHF all suggest a weaker DXY over the coming days, so we are watching for an opportunity to go short. I would prefer the USDCAD though as equities are recovering and the JPY weakened further especially against the AUD overnight. But we will see how the market is trading later this evening.
Monday 20th December
All JPY pairs moved lower on Friday night alongside US equities. The USDJPY is on our watch list for a possible shorting opportunity as there is a head and shoulders formation setting up. This is similar to the AUDJPY which we activated earlier this morning. I will keep you posted on any setup that we take on this pair over the next couple of days.
Thursday 9th December
The USDJPY is creeping higher however there is a possible head and shoulders structure in play. We are focusing on the USDCHF and the USDCAD for the time being but I am keeping a close eye on this pair in case the correct setup presents itself.
Friday 3rd December
There is a pennant structure on the USDJPY at the 113 support zone. The MACD is showing a bullish divergence so there is a chance of a breakout to the upside. The week has been non-stop risk-off with the JPY strengthening across all major pairs. However, the majority of JPY pairs look ready for a technical move higher during today/tonight’s trading session. I wouldn’t be surprise if equities ran higher along with JPY pairs over the next 24 hours.
Tuesday 16th November
The recent pullback on the USDJPY looks corrective so we are waiting for either a move above 114.40 or a pullback towards support at 113.50 to enter a long position. A move towards the 113.50 support would set up an inverted head and shoulders formation.
Friday 12th November
The USDJPY appears to be testing a negative trend line on the 1 hour charts, a breakout above the negative trend line could indicate a move towards the 115.60 resistance. I am cautious to buy this pair as it is running higher with gold prices, generally there is an inverse correlation between the USDJPY and GOLD.
Monday 8th November
The USDJPY is consolidating at the 114.00 resistance. We can see a cross over on the MACD on the daily chart which indicates a bearish reversal. If the USDJPY declines from this peak it will play into the long gold bias. We are not too interested in shorting here just yet, ill keep you posted if we look to enter a trade.
Monday 25th October
There has been some profit-taking at this major resistance zone and the USDJPY has come off its peak. We do not see a trade set up here just yet, BUT the inverse correlation between GOLD and the USDJPY is in play. If the USDJPY continues its decline to the downside it will play into our long gold trade.
Monday 18th October
The USDJPY has reached a major resistance at 114.10. This level has been used to short the market on a number of occasions previously. We will monitor this pair closely, however, if the USDJPY takes a turn lower we will focus on a long GOLD trade rather than short this market. We can also see the pair reaching an overbought condition.
Friday 1st October
The UDJPY had a large surge out of the complex triangle formation as expected. There is possibly a head and shoulders formation setting up at the peak which would indicate a pullback is on the cards. This would also play into the long bias for gold. I am not interested in shorting this one, we will see how it unfolds over the next couple of days.
Tuesday 14th September
I have attached the USDCHF and USDJPY below. The USDCHF is on track for a continuation to the upside. We have locked in at least a 55 pip win. The USDJPY has been tricky after breaking back down inside the pennant formation. We would need to see the DXY rally to the upside to help the position move into the green. IF the USDCHF moves back to stop loss in profit we will look to close out the USDJPY early.
Wednesday 8th September
The USDJPY is breaking out of the triangle formation so we should see the price continue above the 110.60 neckline of the inverted head and shoulders. The USDJPY and GOLD have an inverse correlation meaning gold should continue its downward trend in the short term if the USDJPY moves to the upside.
Friday 3rd September
I haven’t updated the USDJPY for a while as the pair is trading inside a pennant structure. All other majors are moving higher against the JPY due to the risk on market sentiment. We need to remain on the sidelines on this pair for the time being.
Thursday 5th August 2021
A very strong breakout play on the USDJPY. If the USDJPY continues to the upside we will most likely see metals decline. This is supportive of a stronger USD over the coming sessions, especially leading into the Friday night US Non-Farm and unemployment data. The Non-Farm payroll has a very high number on the forecast, with some analysts touting a 1 million result. Although the market has not seen the data yet we may see the event price into the DXY over the next couple of days.
Friday 30th July 2021
The inverse head and shoulders formation could still be in play. I am not looking to trade this just yet unless there is a sharp turn on the DXY. This would also mean lower gold prices. We will keep this in the back pocket if the market turns tonight.
Wednesday 28th July 2021
The USDJPY is back down retesting the broken negative trend line. There is a possible inverted head and shoulders formation in play which is a bullish structure. If this plays out the USDJPY could see a rise back towards the 111.00 level initially. I am prepping a trade on the AUDJPY which is my preferred trade against the JPY. I will keep you posted today once ready to execute.
Thursday 22nd July 2021
The USDJPY has broken above a negative trend line resistance, however, the structure looks like a head and shoulders formation. A break above the 110.30 resistance will suggest a bullish move to the upside playing into the JPY weakness. Keep in mind, if the DXY breaks down from the rising wedge structure the head and shoulders short setup could play out.
Thursday 8th July 2021
Most technicals are turning bearish for the USDJPY. The ideal sell zone is at 111.10 which would set up a head and shoulders formation. If the USDJPY moves lower, gold and silver should rally based on the inverse correlation. MACD has crossed over alongside a bearish divergence on the RSI.
Tuesday 6th July 2021
The USDJPY is still trading inside the rising channel structure. Gold and silver both have bullish technical structures, which suggest the USDJPY could move to the downside due to the inverse correlation. We are focusing on metals this week, however, if there is a break to the downside there could be a short opportunity here.
Tuesday 29th June 2021
The USDJPY is edging lower after reaching the 111.00 resistance. The JPY appears to be strengthening across most pairs, however, we are yet to see if this is just a pullback in the market.
Friday 25th June 2021
The USDJPY is seeing further upside pressure due to the weakness of the JPY. There is a possibility of a breakout here, however, we prefer to look at other JPY crosses due to better entry points. We may look to re-enter the AUDJPY but I would like to see a correction first.
Wednesday 23rd June 2021
The USDJPY is approaching a key resistance zone at the 111.00 level. JPY appears to be weakening across the board which is playing into our AUDJPY long trade. On Friday, the BoJ kept its super-easy monetary policy unchanged, which is diverging from the FED who are beginning to take a more hawkish approach. The BoJ maintained its negative interest rate and held steady on the quantitative easing program. Therefore, there is a fundamental divergence occurring in central bank policy. USDJPY should continue to rise, as long as there are no risk events that result in a RISK OFF market sentiment. For now, there are no entry points into this trade, so we will maintain the AUDJPY position.
Monday 21st June 2021
The USDJPY is yet to form a new high despite the DXY breaking out of a negative trend line resistance. This will be due to the JPY strength over recent sessions. There is a possible bear flag formation in play. If risk assets continue to the downside we may see further strength in all JPY pairs.
Thursday 10th June 2021
We could be on here for the USDJPY as there appears to have been an abc correction from the impulsive move down. I am weighing up a SELL STOP at 109.20 or a SELL LIMIT at 109.80. I will keep you posted tonight. We already have two short USD trades on and a long gold trade pending, therefore we will need to be cautious with this USD short trade.
Tuesday 8th June 2021
The USDJPY has declined in 5 sub-waves, therefore once a correction higher has completed in 3 waves we can look to go short expecting another 5 wave decline. Target zones can be found at 108.40-107.60. I will keep you posted once we take a position.
Monday 7th June 2021
The USDJPY has been a tricky one of late as well. In theory, with gold moving higher the USDJPY should be pushing to the downside due to the inverse correlation between gold and the USD. Taking a look at the recent price action we can see a number of overlapping structures which suggests the formation is NOT bullish. Therefore, we must consider the USDJPY is in a corrective structure and may see a deeper correction. I am keeping an eye on this pair for a selling opportunity.
Monday 24th May 2021
The USDJPY didn’t provide the correct bullish move on Friday for the entry, however, the set-up will still remain valid if the price breaks 109.30. We will maintain our USDJPY pending order for the time being.
Friday 21st May 2021
The USDJPY is setting up a possible inverted head and shoulders on the 15 minute time frame. Again, the pair is trading at the lower end of the base channel which could provide an entry for a long trade. This is a set-up we will look at later leading into the EU open at 5-6pm anticipating a move towards 111.00.
Wednesday 19th May 2021
No significant change on the USDJPY, the pair is currently trading on the key trend line support. We are waiting for a breakout to the upside of the bull flag structure before we look to enter the position. There is a possibility of lowering our entry point again, I will keep you posted.
Tuesday 18th May 2021
No real change here on the USDJPY from yesterday’s trade setup. The pair is still trading inside a possible bull flag formation, therefore we will wait for a breakout before entering on the long side.
Friday 30th April 2021
Really pleased with the progress on the USDJPY this week. The 5 wave rise is very clear to see, which means the pair should now see a correction towards the 108.40 support. This could be a play for next week once the correction has complete. We will then look to go long on the pair towards the 111 resistance.
Wednesday 28th April 2021
A great breakout trade here on the USDJPY. We will maintain our position and let the trade unfold. We are yet to see if this is just a correction or a continuation to new highs. Ideally the USDJPY will set up a 5 wave structure which will suggest the bulls are back.
Tuesday 27th April 2021
Ok the USDJPY looks complete to the downside with a small overthrow underneath the base channel structure. I am considering a long position here and will keep you posted in the trading floor if the position is taken. The JPY has weakened across the board and with the DXY on crucial support this could provide a great pair to go long on – ONLY if the DXY picks up some momentum.
Wednesday 21st April 2021
This count on the USDJPY is still valid. The pair is now trading near the base of the previous rising channel formation. This area could provide some support. I would like to see a breakout to the upside of the falling channel before considering going long on the pair.
Thursday 15th April 2021
USDJPY – I have not updated this chart for a couple of weeks as I wanted to let the correction finish. We are now tracking a possible bullish breakout from the falling wedge structure. We are yet to see a final wave 5 to complete the sequence which can end around the 112 region. Wave 5 tends to be similar in length to wave 1. Keep a close eye on any breakout above the falling wedge formation. This will provide an opportunity to go long in the market. The red numbers indicate the alternative scenario, just something to keep in mind.
Monday 26th March 2021
Our trade is slowly moving into the green. We need to see the pair break the 109.20 resistance so we can relax on the position. Once this level is cleared we will be looking to move our SL to open.
Wednesday 24th March 2021
The USDJPY is trending lower however it is potentially trading inside a bull flag structure. If the DXY continues to push higher the long trade could still be on the cards. The only downside is the JPY strengthening across the board this morning. We need to see the USDJPY break the 108.80 resistance before we consider going long in the market.
Monday 22nd March 2021
This USDJPY count is still a possibility. If the DXY continues to climb we may see the USDJPY reach the 110 resistance before a larger correction. This is a trade we are looking to set up later this afternoon in the trading floor.
Tuesday 16th March 2021
No change here, we are still in our long position on the USDJPY. We may change our view on the pair if the inclining trend line support is broken. We are hoping for a final push higher towards the 110 resistance before a larger correction.
Thursday 11th March 2021
The USDJPY has hade a huge run from the lows of 103, and what we can notice is the structures are very impulsive. We are now expecting a continuation to the upside once this small correction has completed. We are potentially still in Wave 3.
Traders can look to go long above 108.90 once the corrective structure has completed. 109.90-110.00 can be our initial targets before a larger correction occurs.