USDCAD




USDCAD



Friday 21st January

The USDCAD has set up a number of reversal candlestick formations on the daily charts. We are already heavily trading in the USD’s favour and positioned for a risk off move, so I am reluctant to add another position. But technically speaking, there should at least be a small bounce from this level.

Monday 17th January

There has been a technical bounce on the inclining trend line support for the USDCAD. This favours a technical bounce from these levels. Interestingly, crude oil has possibly set up a lower high and may face some selling pressure. All eyes on the DXY over the next couple of days.

Friday 14th January

The USDCAD is trading on a major trend line support which is in line with the DXY and the EURUSD. We are still watching Crude Oil for a possible reversal opportunity that would see the USDCAD run higher.

Tuesday 4th January

Both the USDCAD and Crude Oil have set up possible head and shoulder formations. It is highly unlikely that both of them will play out as these two assets move in opposite directions due to the inverse correlation. If crude oil turns south from here the USDCAD will most likely continue to the upside or vice versa. What we do know is the DXY is possibly ready for another move to the upside which plays into the USDCAD bullish scenario and bearish commodities scenario. We will keep a close eye on both of these over the next couple of days.

Thursday 23rd December

The USDCAD is trading at a major resistance zone inside a rising wedge structure, so technically speaking there could be a breakdown from here. Oil prices are recovering which is playing into a bearish bias on the USDCAD.

Wednesday 8th December

The decline in the USDCAD appears to be a change in trend after the rising channel breakdown. We are playing with the idea that the USDCAD is trading inside a pennant formation and there could be a series of lower highs and higher lows before eventually breaking down. We will monitor this analysis over the coming days, any bounce towards the top of the pennant is going to be our next shorting opportunity.

Tuesday 16th November

The USDCAD stopped at the bearish invalidation level so there is still a possibility of a move to the downside. We are waiting for any breakdown from the rising channel structure to possibly get back into the market. Lost a couple of trades here on the USDCAD so we will be cautious moving forward.

Friday 11th November

Tough lesson here, don’t double guess your analysis. Taking a look at the analysis from the weeks previous I was playing with the idea of a higher USDCAD which has now occurred. The fake breakdown from the rising wedge/bear flag would have drawn in a number of short sellers. We will let this playout for the time being and let the price action unfold.

Monday 25th October

The USDCAD has reached a mirror level which was used as a buying level previously. Technically this looks bullish, however, due to oil prices remaining elevated and the DXY setting up a bearish technical structure I am not convinced just yet. This will be our long DXY trade if the market moves into a risk-off market sentiment.

Monday 18th October 2021

The USDCAD is a tricky one to call at the moment due to oil prices reaching extreme highs. Technically, the USDCAD is setting up a very similar structure to the start of the previous bullish trend, we can see a move into the 1.29 resistance followed by an identical pull back. Currently, the USDCAD is trading on the 38% FIB retracement level. The previous pullback reached the 23% FIB zone. Let’s see how this tracks over this week, for a bullish turn to the upside oil would need a significant pullback which doesn’t look likely just yet. The DXY would also need another move to the upside. This will be our long DXY trade if the USD turns bullish.

Thursday 16th September

The USDCAD has failed the 1.27 resistance for the third occasion so a breakout to the upside looks less likely. With crude oil prices breaking a key resistance we now prefer a bearish breakdown on the USDCAD – due to CAD strength. This is on our list for a shorting opportunity once the triangle formation has been taken out. There could be a move towards the 1.2350 support once the market breaks down.

Monday 13th September

The USDCAD looks very similar to the DXY. There is a possible inverted head and shoulders structure in play indicating a break above the neckline. The CAD, AUD and NZD all look vulnerable to a risk-off move this week, especially if stocks continue to the downside.

Friday 3rd September

Although we closed out a win on the USDCAD earlier in the week I feel disappointed to not have held for longer. There has been a clean breakdown from the rising channel structure which aligns with the DXY. We will be looking to get back into this trade at some stage.

Monday 30th August

The USDCAD rejected the 61% FIB retracement as expected, we are now waiting for a breakdown from the rising channel structure. The plan for this position is to sit tight for the time being. Targets can be found at 1.2495 and 1.2350.

Thursday 26th August 2021

No significant change on the USDCAD, the pair is still trading on the lower trend line. I am expecting some kind of bounce from this level. Looking across other USD pairs, the EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD all have completed a 5 wave structure, meaning a correction is on the cards. There is a possibility of a DXY rally today, leaving room for the FED to possibly send the DXY down on Friday. We will keep a close eye on the DXY index and may close the EURUSD trade early.

Wednesday 25th August

There was a reversal on the USDCAD due to the DXY coming under pressure. The DXY has broken down from a rising wedge structure whilst oil prices have recovered. This paints a bearish picture of the USDCAD. However, I would like to see a bounce on the USDCAD for a nice entry too short, expecting a breakdown from the rising channel.

Monday 23rd August

There was a sharp rise on the USDACD last week, but the daily charts are showing a pin bar candle which can indicate a reversal in the market. Crude oil is trading on a major support zone after a week of relentless selling. There could be a relief rally on crude prices this week which would put pressure on the USDCAD. Obviously, we need to be aware of what the DXY is doing leading into the Jackson Hole meeting towards the end of the week.

Tuesday 17th August

The head and shoulders structure is technically still valid, however, we would need to see a breakdown from the rising trend line support before entering short again. Oil was under pressure overnight which has helped this pair move higher. If oil begins to recover there is a possible breakdown play on the USDCAD.

Thursday 12th August 2021

The USDCAD has broken the key trendline support which indicates bearish pressure coming into play. The DXY had a sharp pullback overnight due to the softer inflation data. This does not mean the DXY will reverse completely as there is still employment data due tonight. We will need to monitor the DXY over the next couple of sessions.

Looking at the stock market across different countries, Aus, US and France, the valuations are very high inside tight rising wedge structures. If they break down it is likely the USD will rally higher, so we will remain alert for any shorting opportunities.

Thursday 5th August 2021

Technically, the USDCAD could have a head and shoulders formation setting up, however, I am not convinced just yet. Weaker oil prices would push the USDCAD higher as well as the Non-Farm Payroll due on Friday night. We will keep this in the back pocket, if the DXY turns south this will be our short play. A break above the 1.2590 resistance will potentially invalidate the head and shoulders.

Tuesday 3rd August 2021

The USDCAD is edging higher due to oil prices declining and a risk-off market sentiment. We are sitting with the SL at break even so we can let the trade run for the time being. If our TP is hit we may consider turning short due to the head and shoulders formation, but only if the fundamentals support the set-up.

Friday 30th July 2021

Nice technical breakdown on the USDCAD as expected. The market is currently trading on a possible neckline of a head and shoulders formation. There is a possible short entry point at 1.2590. We will see if the DXY takes a bounce higher during tonights US session.

Wednesday 28th July 2021

The USDCAD is still trading on the key trend line support. There is a possible bear flag structure forming so we need to be aware of a deeper correction.

Monday 26th July

The USDCAD is trading at the lower end of a rising channel structure.  MACD is suggesting further downside but it is far too early to pick a direction. The economic data points coming from the US will provide the next move. Oil prices recovering also put strength back into the CAD. There could be a breakdown play if the DXY finally moves to the downside over the coming days.

Thursday 22nd July 2021

The USDCAD is a tricky one to pick at the moment, oil prices recovered overnight putting pressure on the USDCAD. Clearly, the USDCAD has broken a long term downward trend, but I am not confident enough to go long due to the rising wedge on the DXY.

Thursday 8th July 2021

The weekly charts are looking very bullish for the USDCAD. Double bottom alongside a bullish breakout from the falling channel structure. This should play into our NZDCAD long trade as well. Crude oil appears to have reached a possible top which should weaken the CAD due to the correlation.

Friday 25th June 2021

The USDCAD appears to have broken to the upside of a bull flag structure that aligns with the DXY. There is also a trend line support coming into play. Our preferred trade is the EURUSD due to oil prices supporting a stronger CAD.

Tuesday 1st June 2021

The USDCAD remains at the key 1.2000 support zone. This is a trade set-up we are waiting for. The structure looks like a classic long term flat correction with the ABC structure (see the second chart). Wave A and B are made up of 3 waves with wave C breaking down into 5 sub-waves. This suggests a reversal opportunity may occur in the near future. There is a possibility of 1 further decline which will take out all of the buyers in the market before reversing higher.

Wednesday 26th May 2021

The USDCAD is trading inside a short term triangle formation at a key support zone. There is no trading opportunity on the USDCAD until a breakout on either side of the triangle is confirmed.

Wednesday 19th May 2021

The USDCAD is teasing a breakout from a smaller falling channel formation. On the breakout, the pair could rise to the 1.2200 resistance initially. This also plays into our CADJPY short position.

Tuesday 4th May 2021

The USDCAD is trading on a key support zone, if the DXY breaks higher with the inverse head and shoulders formation the USDCAD could rally higher. However, the pair remains in a strong downwards trend so be aware of limited upside for the time being.

Friday 30th April 2021

The USDCAD has broken to the downside of the top wedge line, meaning the long trade is now invalid. The pair is approaching key support at 1.2246 and 1.2064, so be aware of a further decline. We may only consider going long if the DXY picks up some momentum to the upside. For the time being, we will remain on the sidelines, however, the USDCAD will stay on our radar for a reversal opportunity next week.

Wednesday 28th April 2021

The USDCAD has been a tricky one lately. The pair is now trading on the broken negative trendline. I guess trend lines can be subjective so we will keep a close eye to see if a recovery occurs over the coming days. There is also a double bottom structure which may result in a reversal opportunity.

Wednesday 21st April 2021

The USDCAD is tracking well at the moment. Ideally, we would like to see a move towards the 1.2725 resistance. The bull flag breakout suggests momentum is with the bulls.

Thursday 15th April 2021

The long idea on the USDCAD can still be valid in the DXY faces a corrective rally higher from the support zone highlighted in the DXY tab. We will consider going long here if the USDCAD breaks the 1.2575 resistance. The 1.2737 resistance can provide a target for any TP.

Tuesday 13th April 2021

The USDCAD is setting up a pennant formation. The pair ticks the box for a bullish run higher, despite pairs like the EURUSD and AUDUSD setting up a bearish technical structure for the USD. The move will most likely depend on the direction of crude oil. IF there is a run higher we want to be able to capitalise on this as the breakout from the falling wedge has been confirmed. Keep a close eye on any breakout of the pennant formation.

On the flip side, if the USDCAD breaks to the downside of the triangle the bullish setup becomes invalid.

Monday 12th April 2021

No significant change on the USDCAD, the price action has been very choppy but the pair is still trading above the falling wedge structure. Therefore we still see the possibility of a run higher. We will be using the 1.2610 resistance as a level to go long in the market (see the 1-hour chart below).

Thursday 8th April 2021

USDCAD is making progress. The pair appear to be struggling to break above the 1.2630 resistance so we will watch carefully for any reversals. We are risk-free in the market on this one with the SL at break even.

Tuesday 6th April 2021

No change on the USDCAD, the pair are edging down the trend line support. The USDCAD failed to break above the 1.2615 resistance which would have provided a green light to go long on the pair. This will remain our trigger point, for the time being, we don’t see any trading opportunity.

Thursday 1st April 2021

The USDCAD is retesting the broken wedge formation suggesting a bullish breakout is on the cards. Nothing is confirmed just yet. We would need to see a move back above the 1.2615 resistance before we consider going long on the pair.

Tuesday 30th March 2021

The USDCAD is still capped underneath the negative trend line resistance (depending on your trendline). The breakout has not been convincing, generally, once a trend line is broken there will be a surge in the currency pair as buyers step into the market. The next move on the USDCAD will depend on the DXY and Oil prices. Oil has recovered some what and looks bullish so we are expecting the USDCAD to remain at its current level for the time being.

Wednesday 24th March 2021

There has been a strong rally on the USDCAD towards the top end of the falling wedge formation. Weaker oil prices and a stronger USD has given the pair a bullish sentiment. However, we are yet to see any breakout to suggest a reversal in trend. Let’s see how this unfolds this week.

Monday 22nd March 2021

The USDCAD reversed on the 1.2370 support and has moved back into the falling wedge formation. Price is continuing to compress inside the wedge. We see no trading opportunities on the USDCAD just yet but the pair remain on our radar for a larger reversal in the long term.

Tuesday 16th March 2021

The USDCAD remains under pressure and is still trading inside the falling wedge formation. The next key support zone comes in at 1.2420 and 1.2370. We will remain on the sidelines on this one for the time being.

Thursday 11th March 2021

The USDCAD is currently trading on a key support zone at 1.2620. Technically this appears to be an opportunity for a long trade, however, we remain unbiased just due to the current set up on the USD index.

We can still see a valid inverted head and shoulders formation which we were stopped out of last week, so these technicals are suggesting a bullish bias. Let’s see if this support zone holds before making any trading decisions.