Tuesday 21st June
The USDCAD has reached a double top zone, therefore a technical corrective decline should occur. We are expecting the USDCAD to move into the 1.02890 support zone initially. There is possibly a head and shoulders structure setting up, we may look to short if it plays out correctly this week from the 1.3000 level.
Friday 10th June
It has been one of those weeks with a similar scenario on the EURAUD. The USDCAD position would have been a cracker, just possibly a day too early into the market. There has been a break of the negative trend line resistance, after a corrective pull back there is a chance of a run higher.
Tuesday 30th May
If the DXY has topped and began a new bearish trend then the USDCAD would likely follow suit. The USDCAD has moved higher in a 3 wave corrective structure indicating the end of the counter-trend. We are watching for a countertrend rally on the shorter-term time frame to potentially sell into over the next couple of weeks. The DXY will need to set up a lower high on the daily time frame.
Friday 20th May
The USDCAD appears to have set up the first 5 wave decline, which is the sign of a bearish reversal. This aligns with the bullish scenario on the EURUSD and the bearish scenario on the DXY. We do not want to jump the gun and short right now, there needs to be a 3 wave counter trend over the next couple of trading sessions. We have closed our DXY short trades and now need to sit on our hands for the price action to unfold and present the next opportunity.
Monday 16th May
The USDCAD broke out of the corrective triangle but failed to reach the initial target zone of 1.33. I can count a 5 wave rally, so in theory, this could be a top for the USDCAD. I am favouring either a long trade on the AUDUSD or GBPUSD rather than shorting here. If the market moves in a risk-on sentiment the commodity-related currencies should benefit (AUD, CAD and NZD).
Monday 9th May
The USDCAD has broken out of the corrective triangle structure and based on the FIB extension tool, we are looking at a target zone of 1.33-1.3900. We will be digging down into the 1-hour charts this week to find a buy trade set up to hold. Generally, Monday mornings are not an optimal time to enter fresh positions, therefore a pullback on Tuesday/Wednesday would be ideal to buy into.
Wednesday 4th May
Technically speaking the USDCAD is trading at a nice resistance zone and it looks attractive for a short position. However, with the FED interest rate meeting early hours tomorrow morning it would be a high risk play. Post FED announcement, if the USDCAD is trading nearer the bottom of the pennant structure we can look for long trade setups.
Saturday 30th April
The USDCAD is testing the top of the pennant structure. The longer term view looks relatively bullish and we will be looking for the next buying opportunity over the coming days. Keep a close eye on the MACD as a breakout of the pennant on the MACD will suggest the trend has changed into a bullish mode. Ideally there would be another dip on the USDCAD towards the 1.2600 support for us to buy into.
Wednesday 27th April
The USDCAD has reached the first target zone, we closed down slightly early however profit is profit! We will wait to see if there is a rejection and move lower before the next leg to the upside. My personal opinion is a breakout to the upside is more likely due to the initial bullish move prior to the pennant structure.
Saturday 9th April
When you pick a good trade and you get stopped out by a wick it is very frustrating. The USDCAD is rising back inside the pennant structure. We will be looking for a corrective pull back in the market to possibly buy into. This also aligns with a corrective rally on the AUDUSD next week to SELL into. We will need to keep an eye on the MACD, a rising back inside the triangle will also add support to the bullish scenario.
Wednesday 6th April 2022
Hard luck on this one, typical stop hunt outside of the trend line before a reversal back inside. We may look to revisit tomorrow depending on the daily candle close.
Tuesday 28th March
The USDCAD has continued to head south and has bounced on the 1.2460 support level. There is still a higher low in play, therefore a bullish triangle is still valid. The MACD has also reached the bottom of a triangle formation so I am considering a technical buy at this level with a good risk-reward ratio. The 1.2460 level has acted as strong support and resistance zone over the past year.
Tuesday 22nd March
The USDCAD has stabilised at the 1.2590 support zone. This is a double bottom formation and also inline with the rising trend line support, so we can possibly expect a technical bounce higher from here at least. If the bullish triangle formation is correct, there will also be another move to the upside. A bullish move on the USDCAD also aligns with the DXY.
Thursday 17th March
The USDCAD has been one tough currency pair over the past couple of weeks. Overall on the longer-term picture, if the DXY is going to turn to the downside, I would assume the USDCAD would also follow. Which aligns with a possible reversal trade on the EURUSD. Before we consider going short, I would want to see a breakdown from the rising trend line structure.
Monday 7th March
The USDCAD has been a complete mess recently, with very choppy price action. The DXY strengthening due to the safe haven aspect is suggesting to buy the USDCAD, whereas the CAD also has a bullish scenario due to higher crude oil prices. Technically, there is a major rising trend line support coming into play, whilst the market is trading above this level the bulls are still in control. The daily chart is showing a possibly bullish outlook, whereas the shorter-term time frame favours a bearish move.
The USDCAD has a major resistance zone at 1.2800, there has been a short term rejection from this level. To go long here there would need to be a breakout above 1.2800, and to go short I would like to see a breakdown from the rising trend line structure.
Friday 25th February
Finally a breakout from the consolidation zone on the USDCAD. We need to see if the new support area at 1.2800 holds before considering going long. If crude faces some selling pressure there is a chance of another move to the upside on this pair.
Monday 21st February
The USDCAD is still trading inside a very tight range. If the market sentiment turns negative we can expect a move to the upside, if there appears to be a cooling of tensions in Europe then we will most likely see a move to the downside. There is no clear direction on this pair just yet.
Monday 14th February
Despite crude oil prices running higher, there is still a chance for the inverted head and shoulders formation to play out here on the USDCAD. Commodity related currencies look fragile at the moment due to the uncertainty in Europe. Any escalation between Russia and the Ukraine/West will put pressure on the AUD, NZD and CAD as they are risk currencies.
Thursday 3rd February
Based on the bearish technical signals on crude oil, there is a possibility of this inverse head and shoulders playing out due to the inverse correlation. The DXY has declined throughout the week, however, leading into Friday night NFP and unemployment data there could be a rally back into the DXY. We are looking to trade a possible stronger USD over the next couple of days.
Thursday 27th January
The USDCAD has continued to the upside but we are not looking to trade this pair just yet as crude oil is also still on the move. There is no obvious position to take here, ill keep an eye on the chart moving forward.
Monday 24th January
As expected, the USDCAD pushed higher off the technical rising trend line support. We are sticking with our EURUSD position for the time being, however, if Crude Oil shows signs of weakness from its current peak this may also be another opportunity. Commodity related currencies, AUD, CAD & NZD, are all vulnerable over the next week whilst the market has a negative sentiment.
Friday 21st January
The USDCAD has set up a number of reversal candlestick formations on the daily charts. We are already heavily trading in the USD’s favour and positioned for a risk off move, so I am reluctant to add another position. But technically speaking, there should at least be a small bounce from this level.
Monday 17th January
There has been a technical bounce on the inclining trend line support for the USDCAD. This favours a technical bounce from these levels. Interestingly, crude oil has possibly set up a lower high and may face some selling pressure. All eyes on the DXY over the next couple of days.
Friday 14th January
The USDCAD is trading on a major trend line support which is in line with the DXY and the EURUSD. We are still watching Crude Oil for a possible reversal opportunity that would see the USDCAD run higher.
Tuesday 4th January
Both the USDCAD and Crude Oil have set up possible head and shoulder formations. It is highly unlikely that both of them will play out as these two assets move in opposite directions due to the inverse correlation. If crude oil turns south from here the USDCAD will most likely continue to the upside or vice versa. What we do know is the DXY is possibly ready for another move to the upside which plays into the USDCAD bullish scenario and bearish commodities scenario. We will keep a close eye on both of these over the next couple of days.
Thursday 23rd December
The USDCAD is trading at a major resistance zone inside a rising wedge structure, so technically speaking there could be a breakdown from here. Oil prices are recovering which is playing into a bearish bias on the USDCAD.
Wednesday 8th December
The decline in the USDCAD appears to be a change in trend after the rising channel breakdown. We are playing with the idea that the USDCAD is trading inside a pennant formation and there could be a series of lower highs and higher lows before eventually breaking down. We will monitor this analysis over the coming days, any bounce towards the top of the pennant is going to be our next shorting opportunity.
Tuesday 16th November
The USDCAD stopped at the bearish invalidation level so there is still a possibility of a move to the downside. We are waiting for any breakdown from the rising channel structure to possibly get back into the market. Lost a couple of trades here on the USDCAD so we will be cautious moving forward.
Friday 11th November
Tough lesson here, don’t double guess your analysis. Taking a look at the analysis from the weeks previous I was playing with the idea of a higher USDCAD which has now occurred. The fake breakdown from the rising wedge/bear flag would have drawn in a number of short sellers. We will let this playout for the time being and let the price action unfold.
Monday 25th October
The USDCAD has reached a mirror level which was used as a buying level previously. Technically this looks bullish, however, due to oil prices remaining elevated and the DXY setting up a bearish technical structure I am not convinced just yet. This will be our long DXY trade if the market moves into a risk-off market sentiment.
Monday 18th October 2021
The USDCAD is a tricky one to call at the moment due to oil prices reaching extreme highs. Technically, the USDCAD is setting up a very similar structure to the start of the previous bullish trend, we can see a move into the 1.29 resistance followed by an identical pull back. Currently, the USDCAD is trading on the 38% FIB retracement level. The previous pullback reached the 23% FIB zone. Let’s see how this tracks over this week, for a bullish turn to the upside oil would need a significant pullback which doesn’t look likely just yet. The DXY would also need another move to the upside. This will be our long DXY trade if the USD turns bullish.
Thursday 16th September
The USDCAD has failed the 1.27 resistance for the third occasion so a breakout to the upside looks less likely. With crude oil prices breaking a key resistance we now prefer a bearish breakdown on the USDCAD – due to CAD strength. This is on our list for a shorting opportunity once the triangle formation has been taken out. There could be a move towards the 1.2350 support once the market breaks down.
Monday 13th September
The USDCAD looks very similar to the DXY. There is a possible inverted head and shoulders structure in play indicating a break above the neckline. The CAD, AUD and NZD all look vulnerable to a risk-off move this week, especially if stocks continue to the downside.
Friday 3rd September
Although we closed out a win on the USDCAD earlier in the week I feel disappointed to not have held for longer. There has been a clean breakdown from the rising channel structure which aligns with the DXY. We will be looking to get back into this trade at some stage.
Monday 30th August
The USDCAD rejected the 61% FIB retracement as expected, we are now waiting for a breakdown from the rising channel structure. The plan for this position is to sit tight for the time being. Targets can be found at 1.2495 and 1.2350.
Thursday 26th August 2021
No significant change on the USDCAD, the pair is still trading on the lower trend line. I am expecting some kind of bounce from this level. Looking across other USD pairs, the EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD all have completed a 5 wave structure, meaning a correction is on the cards. There is a possibility of a DXY rally today, leaving room for the FED to possibly send the DXY down on Friday. We will keep a close eye on the DXY index and may close the EURUSD trade early.
Wednesday 25th August
There was a reversal on the USDCAD due to the DXY coming under pressure. The DXY has broken down from a rising wedge structure whilst oil prices have recovered. This paints a bearish picture of the USDCAD. However, I would like to see a bounce on the USDCAD for a nice entry too short, expecting a breakdown from the rising channel.
Monday 23rd August
There was a sharp rise on the USDACD last week, but the daily charts are showing a pin bar candle which can indicate a reversal in the market. Crude oil is trading on a major support zone after a week of relentless selling. There could be a relief rally on crude prices this week which would put pressure on the USDCAD. Obviously, we need to be aware of what the DXY is doing leading into the Jackson Hole meeting towards the end of the week.
Tuesday 17th August
The head and shoulders structure is technically still valid, however, we would need to see a breakdown from the rising trend line support before entering short again. Oil was under pressure overnight which has helped this pair move higher. If oil begins to recover there is a possible breakdown play on the USDCAD.
Thursday 12th August 2021
The USDCAD has broken the key trendline support which indicates bearish pressure coming into play. The DXY had a sharp pullback overnight due to the softer inflation data. This does not mean the DXY will reverse completely as there is still employment data due tonight. We will need to monitor the DXY over the next couple of sessions.
Looking at the stock market across different countries, Aus, US and France, the valuations are very high inside tight rising wedge structures. If they break down it is likely the USD will rally higher, so we will remain alert for any shorting opportunities.
Thursday 5th August 2021
Technically, the USDCAD could have a head and shoulders formation setting up, however, I am not convinced just yet. Weaker oil prices would push the USDCAD higher as well as the Non-Farm Payroll due on Friday night. We will keep this in the back pocket, if the DXY turns south this will be our short play. A break above the 1.2590 resistance will potentially invalidate the head and shoulders.
Tuesday 3rd August 2021
The USDCAD is edging higher due to oil prices declining and a risk-off market sentiment. We are sitting with the SL at break even so we can let the trade run for the time being. If our TP is hit we may consider turning short due to the head and shoulders formation, but only if the fundamentals support the set-up.
Friday 30th July 2021
Nice technical breakdown on the USDCAD as expected. The market is currently trading on a possible neckline of a head and shoulders formation. There is a possible short entry point at 1.2590. We will see if the DXY takes a bounce higher during tonights US session.
Wednesday 28th July 2021
The USDCAD is still trading on the key trend line support. There is a possible bear flag structure forming so we need to be aware of a deeper correction.
Monday 26th July
The USDCAD is trading at the lower end of a rising channel structure. MACD is suggesting further downside but it is far too early to pick a direction. The economic data points coming from the US will provide the next move. Oil prices recovering also put strength back into the CAD. There could be a breakdown play if the DXY finally moves to the downside over the coming days.
Thursday 22nd July 2021
The USDCAD is a tricky one to pick at the moment, oil prices recovered overnight putting pressure on the USDCAD. Clearly, the USDCAD has broken a long term downward trend, but I am not confident enough to go long due to the rising wedge on the DXY.
Thursday 8th July 2021
The weekly charts are looking very bullish for the USDCAD. Double bottom alongside a bullish breakout from the falling channel structure. This should play into our NZDCAD long trade as well. Crude oil appears to have reached a possible top which should weaken the CAD due to the correlation.
Friday 25th June 2021
The USDCAD appears to have broken to the upside of a bull flag structure that aligns with the DXY. There is also a trend line support coming into play. Our preferred trade is the EURUSD due to oil prices supporting a stronger CAD.
Tuesday 1st June 2021
The USDCAD remains at the key 1.2000 support zone. This is a trade set-up we are waiting for. The structure looks like a classic long term flat correction with the ABC structure (see the second chart). Wave A and B are made up of 3 waves with wave C breaking down into 5 sub-waves. This suggests a reversal opportunity may occur in the near future. There is a possibility of 1 further decline which will take out all of the buyers in the market before reversing higher.
Wednesday 26th May 2021
The USDCAD is trading inside a short term triangle formation at a key support zone. There is no trading opportunity on the USDCAD until a breakout on either side of the triangle is confirmed.
Wednesday 19th May 2021
The USDCAD is teasing a breakout from a smaller falling channel formation. On the breakout, the pair could rise to the 1.2200 resistance initially. This also plays into our CADJPY short position.
Tuesday 4th May 2021
The USDCAD is trading on a key support zone, if the DXY breaks higher with the inverse head and shoulders formation the USDCAD could rally higher. However, the pair remains in a strong downwards trend so be aware of limited upside for the time being.
Friday 30th April 2021
The USDCAD has broken to the downside of the top wedge line, meaning the long trade is now invalid. The pair is approaching key support at 1.2246 and 1.2064, so be aware of a further decline. We may only consider going long if the DXY picks up some momentum to the upside. For the time being, we will remain on the sidelines, however, the USDCAD will stay on our radar for a reversal opportunity next week.
Wednesday 28th April 2021
The USDCAD has been a tricky one lately. The pair is now trading on the broken negative trendline. I guess trend lines can be subjective so we will keep a close eye to see if a recovery occurs over the coming days. There is also a double bottom structure which may result in a reversal opportunity.
Wednesday 21st April 2021
The USDCAD is tracking well at the moment. Ideally, we would like to see a move towards the 1.2725 resistance. The bull flag breakout suggests momentum is with the bulls.
Thursday 15th April 2021
The long idea on the USDCAD can still be valid in the DXY faces a corrective rally higher from the support zone highlighted in the DXY tab. We will consider going long here if the USDCAD breaks the 1.2575 resistance. The 1.2737 resistance can provide a target for any TP.
Tuesday 13th April 2021
The USDCAD is setting up a pennant formation. The pair ticks the box for a bullish run higher, despite pairs like the EURUSD and AUDUSD setting up a bearish technical structure for the USD. The move will most likely depend on the direction of crude oil. IF there is a run higher we want to be able to capitalise on this as the breakout from the falling wedge has been confirmed. Keep a close eye on any breakout of the pennant formation.
On the flip side, if the USDCAD breaks to the downside of the triangle the bullish setup becomes invalid.
Monday 12th April 2021
No significant change on the USDCAD, the price action has been very choppy but the pair is still trading above the falling wedge structure. Therefore we still see the possibility of a run higher. We will be using the 1.2610 resistance as a level to go long in the market (see the 1-hour chart below).
Thursday 8th April 2021
USDCAD is making progress. The pair appear to be struggling to break above the 1.2630 resistance so we will watch carefully for any reversals. We are risk-free in the market on this one with the SL at break even.
Tuesday 6th April 2021
No change on the USDCAD, the pair are edging down the trend line support. The USDCAD failed to break above the 1.2615 resistance which would have provided a green light to go long on the pair. This will remain our trigger point, for the time being, we don’t see any trading opportunity.
Thursday 1st April 2021
The USDCAD is retesting the broken wedge formation suggesting a bullish breakout is on the cards. Nothing is confirmed just yet. We would need to see a move back above the 1.2615 resistance before we consider going long on the pair.
Tuesday 30th March 2021
The USDCAD is still capped underneath the negative trend line resistance (depending on your trendline). The breakout has not been convincing, generally, once a trend line is broken there will be a surge in the currency pair as buyers step into the market. The next move on the USDCAD will depend on the DXY and Oil prices. Oil has recovered some what and looks bullish so we are expecting the USDCAD to remain at its current level for the time being.
Wednesday 24th March 2021
There has been a strong rally on the USDCAD towards the top end of the falling wedge formation. Weaker oil prices and a stronger USD has given the pair a bullish sentiment. However, we are yet to see any breakout to suggest a reversal in trend. Let’s see how this unfolds this week.
Monday 22nd March 2021
The USDCAD reversed on the 1.2370 support and has moved back into the falling wedge formation. Price is continuing to compress inside the wedge. We see no trading opportunities on the USDCAD just yet but the pair remain on our radar for a larger reversal in the long term.
Tuesday 16th March 2021
The USDCAD remains under pressure and is still trading inside the falling wedge formation. The next key support zone comes in at 1.2420 and 1.2370. We will remain on the sidelines on this one for the time being.
Thursday 11th March 2021
The USDCAD is currently trading on a key support zone at 1.2620. Technically this appears to be an opportunity for a long trade, however, we remain unbiased just due to the current set up on the USD index.
We can still see a valid inverted head and shoulders formation which we were stopped out of last week, so these technicals are suggesting a bullish bias. Let’s see if this support zone holds before making any trading decisions.