EURUSD




EURUSD



Monday 17th January

The EURUSD rejected the negative trend line resistance at the same time the DXY bounced from the major support zone. There is still a strong possibility of a move to the downside, so we are waiting to go short later this evening. The recent move higher can still be classed as a corrective formation.

Friday 14th January

The EURUSD has reached a negative trend line resistance as the DXY declined across the board. There is a chance of a technical bounce from this level. Looking across a number of USD pairs, this appears to be a similar story. We will be watching for signs of a shorting opportunity as the fundamentals support a higher DXY.

Monday 10th January

There was a spike higher on the EURUSD post NFP data on Friday night, however until the 1.1386 resistance is taken out the bearish scenario still remains valid. We will stay short for the time being expecting an additional move to the downside. We may look to add a second position once the market begins to move south with a slightly better risk v reward.

Thursday 6th January

The overall picture on the EURUSD indicates a bottom is near, however, the decline is not yet complete. We are expecting at least another decline into the 23% FIB retracement level at roughly 1.11-1.10. The 1 hour chart shows a 5 wave decline and an ABC corrective rally, this tells us a bearish move to the downside is possibly underway after 2 weeks of consolidation. 1.1386 is our bearish invalidation level.

Wednesday 29th December

The EURUSD is moving in a very similar fashion to the DXY, we can see a pennant structure and compression which indicates a breakout is around the corner. The RSI is trading on the trend line support, a breakdown will indicate a final move lower before a larger reversal. Not much to report on this pair for the time being.

 

Monday 20th December

We are still in the bullish reversal camp for the EURUSD, however, there is a chance of one more low to come before that takes place. The EURUSD failed to break above the negative trend line resistance last week so we need to remain patient and wait for the next low. Ideally, the market will set up a bullish divergence on the daily time frame before reversing. This will stay on our watch list over the next week.

Thursday 18th December

The EURUSD has now set up a higher low which indicates a change in trend. We are already long on the AUDUSD and short on the USDCHF, however, this technical structure supports our bearish DXY bias. A break above the negative trend line resistance could open the doors for a move towards 1.146.

Monday 13th December

The GBPUSD is signalling a possible change in trend, we are playing with the idea that the EURUSD has one more low to make so we are monitoring the technicals closely. Looking across the board there are a number of pairs signalling dollar weakness. The GBPUSD has retraced to the key 61% FIB retracement and has now broken to the upside of a falling wedge structure, there is also a cross over on the MACD.

Before we can consider going long on the EURUSD there needs to be a breakout above the negative trend line resistance. The GBPUSD and AUDUSD appear to be leading the market to the upside for the time being.

 

Thursday 9th December

From an Elliott wave perspective, the EURSUD appears to be approaching a bottom after a year-long decline. There is a possibility of one more low so I do not want to enter too soon. However, this is going to be a big trade setup we are watching over the next couple of weeks. The corrective decline is in 3 waves labelled ABC and has moved into the crucial 38% FIB retracement. This structure is similar across all major pairs and the GBPUSD is also on our watch list. If you take a look at the rally on the DXY, it is also only in three waves which generally indicates a counter corrective trend rather than a long term bullish trend. What may cause the DXY to devalue? There are a number of stories floating around about deflation due to huge stockpiles of commodities and goods around the world. Although inflation is a major theme at the moment, I am watching for a deflation scenario.

Monday 6th December

There was no significant change on the EURUSD since Friday’s post despite the AUDUSD and NZDUSD taking a deep turn lower. There is still a possible inverted head and shoulders formation in play on the shorter-term time frame which aligns with the H&S structure on the DXY. We will be looking to go long if there is a break above the bull flag structure.

Friday 3rd December

There was a technical bounce on the declining trendline structure on the EURUSD and the MACD has crossed over to the upside. These are the early signs of a change in trend, of course, this would require a significant weakness in the DXY. This is on our watch list for a long trade over the coming days/weeks.

There is possibly an inverted head and shoulders formation in play on the shorter-term time frame. This is a play I am watching leading into tonights NFP release.

The GBPUSD also has a couple of bullish reversal signals, the falling wedge formation alongside the bullish divergence on the MACD.

Tuesday 23rd November

The EURUSD is working its way down a fairly historic trendline that was previously used as resistance on the weekly charts. The EURUSD is also coming back into the 32-23% FIB retracement zone. Bears are very much in control at the moment, we are watching for any reversal opportunity but it would depend largely on the DXY slowing down.

Monday 8th November

The EURSUD rejected the top of the channel structure and is trading beneath the 1.1600 resistance which is our bullish level. We will be looking to buy this pair once a breakout above the negative trendline occurs. This would require a breakdown from the rising trendline highlighted on the DXY.

Friday 29th October

The EURUSD is tracking well with a nice impulsive move higher. We are sitting tight on this position for the time being along with the GBPUSD. I’ll keep you posted if there are any changes to our positions.

Monday 25th October

No significant change on the EURUSD, we will be looking to enter a long trade on this pair at some stage as the correction looks complete. This is a similar setup to silver as it would require a decline on the DXY. I will keep you posted on any setup over the next day or two.

Thursday 21st October

Just playing with the idea the EURUSD could be setting up a move to the upside, which aligns with the DXY bearish bias and the NZDUSD analysis. We will be looking to get back into the EURUSD at some stage over the coming days. Ideally on a corrective pullback. Most pairs are indicating a bearish move on the DXY but it will depend on the FED’s next move.

Tuesday 14th September

The EURUSD has had a strong bounce from the 1.1760 support zone. This ticks the box for an inverted head and shoulders structure, so theoretically it can now move higher. This scenario suggests a weaker USD coming into play. Therefore we may need to use this as our bearish DXY position later this evening. We are positioned in the favour of the USD on most trades, so having this set up as a backup will help offset our current positions.

Monday 13th September

The EURUSD has broken down from the rising channel structure as expected and appears to be making its way towards the 1.1750 support. From a technical perspective, this could be an inverted head and shoulders structure setup, however, it is too early to call. We will need to see how the DXY reacts once the 1.1750 support is reached.

Wednesday 8th September

The EURUSD is trading on the inclining trendline support. A breakdown from here will open the doors for a move towards the 1.1750 support zone. Again, this setup is very similar to gold – there could be an inverted head and shoulders formation setting up. This chart also indicates a stronger USD over the next couple of days.

The GBPUSD appears to be leading the EURUSD to the downside. The GBPUSD has already broken the trendline support. The GBPUSD is slightly different as there is possibly a triangle formation in play. Just one to keep an eye on, however, we will favour the EURUSD for a long trade once it reaches the 1.1750 support.

Friday 3rd September

The EURUSD has continued to the upside and is making its way into the 1.1900-1.1950 resistance zone. Similar to the AUDUSD we will be looking for pullbacks from the level to possibly buy into. A break above the negative trend line resistance will open the doors for a move towards the 1.22 resistance zone.

Monday 30th August

The EURUSD and GBPUSD could be setting up for a large move higher, especially if the DXY continues its downward trend. The corrective structure potentially looks complete. I made a mistake closing our EURUSD long trade last week, we should have kept hold of the position. We will be waiting for a corrective structure to buy into on either the EURUSD or GBPUSD.

Thursday 26th August

The EURUSD is in a rising channel structure, but we did not get the explosive move higher I was hoping for. We will maintain the position for the time being but keep a close eye on the DXY. We still favour a weaker USD over the next couple of weeks. However, the FED’s comments over the next couple of days will be crucial. We need to see the FED push back slightly on bond tapering, or only announce a small taper.

Monday 23rd August

The 1-hour charts are showing a falling wedge structure which can indicate a reversal opportunity. The EURUSD is on our watch list for a buy swing trade over the next couple of days.

Thursday 12th August 2021

The EURUSD has found support at 1.7111. This technically could be the bottom of a large ABC correction. We would need to see some follow-through to the downside on the DXY for this to play out. Before we look to buy into the EURUSD I would like to see a small 5 wave rally. We will keep this as a possible trade setup over the next week or so. If the market breaks down from here the next support can be found at 1.1630.

Friday 30th July 2021

Firstly, thank you Matty for sharing your chart. Great spot with the death cross formation on the EURUSD. The death cross is generally a bearish signal (long term), however, the market still has room to move to the upside. I took profit to secure a win for the week. Interestingly, GOLD has set up a golden cross formation on the daily chart which is a bullish signal. So there are conflicting signals coming on the moving averages. Time will tell which one is correct. We are expecting a slight pull back lower on the EURUSD and we can then re-evaluate a second entry (depending on the DXY).

Wednesday 28th July 2021

The EURUSD has broken out to the upside as anticipated. We would need to see another 20+ pips before we can move the SL to break even.

Monday 26th July 2021

EURUSD had a large spike last week before moving back into the falling wedge structure. The technicals are still suggesting a bullish reversal opportunity with the RSI and MACD turning higher. Again, the direction will most likely be a result of the fundamentals coming from the US this week. Risk assets are continuing to recover therefore the market sentiment is very much risk on at the moment.

Thursday 22nd July 2021

The EURUSD is trading inside a possible triangle formation with a falling wedge structure. This shouts our a bullish reversal opportunity soon. The ECB will provide their latest interest rate decision and statement this evening which could provide the fuel the EURUSD needs to break to the upside. Market consensus is for everything to remain on hold, however with inflation running hot and other central banks beginning to talk about bond tapering a bullish reaction is a strong possibility. Of course, we can not enter the trade until a breakout is confirmed.

Tuesday 20th July

Looks like there is still some downside to come on the EURUSD with the support being at 1.1700. The EURUSD has not fallen as far as other currencies as the ECB provided some more hawkish comments during their last meeting. This week the ECB provides the next interest rate decision and statement which could put a further bullish sentiment on the EUR. EURGBP will be our long trade at some stage this week.

Friday 16th July 2021

EURUSD still moving lower whilst the RSI is edging higher, this is setting up a bullish divergence. Very choppy price action inside the falling wedge so we will remain on the sidelines until a breakout occurs.

Tuesday 13th July 2021

The EURUSD has broken out to the upside of the falling wedge and has retested the trendline. We should see a rise towards the 1.1044 resistance over the coming days.

Tuesday 29th June

There has been no significant change on the EURUSD. The pair is still trading beneath the key trend line resistance which suggests bears are in control. Our SHORT position is now active.

Friday 25th June 2021

There has been a rejection from the trend line resistance which supports a selling opportunity. Furthermore, the breakout of the bull flag on the DXY suggests the EURUSD will continue to move lower.

Wednesday 23rd June 2021

The EURUSD is retesting the broken trendline at 1.1958. If the DXY takes another move towards the upside we may see the EURUSD decline to the 1.1800 area. I will keep you posted if we look to go short on the pair.

Monday 21st June 2021

The EURUSD has broken down from the rising channel formation, there has been no confirmation just yet and the pair are sitting on the 240 Daily EMA. This can be used as support/resistance zone. A break back above and into the channel could provide a long opportunity. We will need to see how the DXY reacts this week.

Thursday 17th June 2021

The EURUSD is approaching the rising channel support line at the same time the DXY is reaching resistance. Similarly, there is an inverted head and shoulders formation setting up. We will remain on the sidelines on the USD pairs until the DXY shows a rejection or a breakout.

Tuesday 15th June 2021

The long term bullish trend is still intact, the price action looks very similar to gold on the 1 hour. The falling channel formation can still be considered a bull flag structure. Let’s see how this unfolds over there next day or two, we are still active on the EURUSD.

Thursday 10th June 2021

Taking the Elliott wave count away the EURUSD is possibly setting up a bull flag structure leading into the ECB interest rate decision later this evening.  The market has been very quiet this week with very minimal movements from the Monday open. ING has stated they do not expect any fireworks during tonights ECB decision, but they are leaning towards a strong EUR  given the optimism over the EU zone covid-19 recovery. In general, Central Banks have been increasing economic forecasts and painting a slightly more positive picture. Let’s see how this plays out.

Monday 7th June 2021

The EURUSD played out as we expected taking a turn lower to form an A-B-C correction, so the theory was correct just the execution did not provide a profit. We did expect a deeper correction towards the 1.2050 support. The question now is has the correction complete? The key level to watch for is the 1.2218 resistance. We will be looking to go long on a breakout to the upside expecting a continuation once this level is taken.

Wednesday 26th May 2021

The EURUSD is still trading at the 1.2240 resistance zone. This week has been relatively slow with markets trading at similar open levels to Monday. The GBPUSD is still our preferred short opportunity if the DXY breaks to the upside (see the second chart).

The GBPUSD ticks the box for a reversal opportunity, however, as we are on the AUDUSD and NZDUSD short side I would like to see a bullish breakout on the DXY before entering this position, or some negative news come out of the UK

Monday 24th May 2021

No significant change on the EURUSD, we are still waiting for either a breakdown from the 1.2160 support or a break above the 1.2240 resistance. I prefer the GBPUSD short trade setup rather than the EURUSD – check the second chart.

 

The GBPUSD is testing the lower trendline of a rising wedge structure which generally indicates a bearish reversal opportunity. We will be looking to trade the GBPUSD in the trading floor later this evening.

Friday 21st May 2021

EURUSD still trading at a double top zone. The bearish level to watch out for is 1.2162, a break down from here will signal a deeper correction on the pair. However, a break to the upside will suggest the EURUSD will move to new highs at 1.2360.

Similarly, the GBPUSD is trading at a key double top inside a rising wedge (see the second chart), which suggests a reversal opportunity once the price action breaks to the downside.

GBPUSD 4 Hour Charts

Wednesday 19th May 2021

The EURUSD has reached a double top zone along with a technical resistance. Based on other currency pairs, we see the USD strengthening from here, therefore the EURUSD could see some downside from resistance. There is a possibility of a final push into 1.2240 before a correction.

Sunday 16th May 2021

Just a quick look at the larger picture on the EURUSD. There has been a breakout of a longer-term pennant formation which favours the bulls.

The daily charts are showing a rising channel formation, however the pair could be coming into a short term resistance at the 1.2180 level. The EURUSD looks bullish whilst pairs like the AUDUSD and USDCAD potentially favours the USD. The move on the USD index will be impacted by the FOMC on Thursday morning.

Wednesday 5th May 2021

The EURUSD looks poised for a move towards the 1.2075 resistance zone. IF there is a rejection at 1.2075 there is a possible head and shoulders formation in play, which would indicate a further decline. We may look to play the head and shoulders formation over the coming days.

Tuesday 4th May 2021

The EURUSD appears to have completed a 5 wave rise and the correction is underway. If the EURUSD reaches the 1.9970-1.1930 support we will consider going long. In the shorter term, there is a possible head and shoulders formation that also aligns with the DXY, so be aware of a deeper correction.

Monday 26th April 2021

The EURUSD appears to have completed a standard ABC correction. Unfortunately, the pair did not correct a deep as I was hoping for and is now running higher. The overall trend looks bullish in nature, therefore we will be looking to buy into the pair at some stage.

Wednesday 21st April 2021

The EURUSD appears to have completed the initial wave 1 bullish sequence higher. The pair moved higher than we anticipated due to the weaker USD over the past couple of days. However, a breakdown from the trend line support could provide an opportunity for a short trade. We can expect a reasonable pull back on the breakdown here towards the 1.1945 support. The real trade is once the correction completes, going long on the EURUSD. For us to consider going long in the market we need to see a 3 wave correction.

Thursday 15th April 2021

Ok, so the EURUSD appears to have completed the first wave of a 5 wave sequence which is what we have been waiting for. Ideally, the EURUSD will complete an A-B-C correction possibly down at the 1.1860 support zone. This will provide us with an opportunity to go long in the market expecting a continuation higher. This set up is the inverse of the DXY index. Let’s see how this plays out, overall the structure is bullish.

Friday 9th April 2021

This is playing out exactly as I was hoping. The market price action is creating bullish impulsive waves, we now want to see a reasonable pull back on the EURUSD so we can go long in the market with a really good risk V reward. Ideally, the pair will create an a-b-c correction to the 61% fib retracement.

Tuesday 6th April 2021

Here we go, the EURUSD has broken our target resistance zone and reversed at the 1.17109 support as expected. Keep in mind we are long on the GBPUSD and AUDUSD therefore I will not be posting a specific trade on this one as I don’t want to over-leverage shorting the USD. The EURUSD is lagging behind the GBPUSD as bulls have just stepped into the market. There is a possibility of a bullish run higher initially towards 1.1930 which will be the trend line resistance.

 

GBPUSD – Chart Update, trade looking good so far!

Thursday 1st April 2021

The EURUSD has reached the 1.618 FIB extension at 1.1710. The final leg lower appear to have completed a 5 wave structure suggesting the correction could now be complete. Ideally the EURUSD will create an impulsive move higher above the 1.1797 resistance. This will depend largely on the DXY index.

Tuesday 30th March 2021

The EURUSD is grinding lower towards the 1.1710 support zone. The pair are on our radar for a reversal opportunity. The only downside here is fundamentally Europe is lagging behind the rest of the world distributing the Covid-19 vaccine. There are fears of a third wave coming into play which of course would be bearish for the EUR. We will track this story closely over the coming week.

Friday 26th March 2021

The EURUSD is coming down nicely towards the alternative scenario at the 1.618% fib extension at the 1.1710 support. A final push higher on the DXY followed by a reversal would set up a buy trade very nicely. However, it is too early to buy into the pair just yet. This trade is on our watch list over the coming weeks.

Wednesday 24th March 2021

The EURUSD reversed from the crucial resistance at 1.1990 suggesting our alternative scenario is now in play. The corrective structure A-B-C is looking correct, however, the C wave is setting up a 5 wave decline rather than a 3 wave decline. The pair could be approaching the next support zone at 1.1750 over the coming days.

Thursday 18th March 2021

The EURUSD has taken a similar path to gold over the past couple of months trending lower in what appears to be a corrective structure. The main question here is has the correction completed. The EURUSD has broken out of a bull flag structure which is a bullish signal post FOMC announcement. The stock market is moving higher which also signals a risk-on sentiment.

There are two possible scenarios here, either the correction has finished and we move higher, or a reversal takes place on the DXY and the EURUSD moves to new lows before the larger reversal.

Monday 15th March 2021

The EURUSD weekly charts has created an inside bar candlestick formation. This can indicate a reversal opportunity when found at a key support or resistance zone. We can see the 1.1900 previous resistance acting as current support.

The EURUSD 1 hour charts has two zones to keep an eye on. The 1.2000 resistance is our bullish zone. A break above here will indicate bulls are back in control, and we will be looking to go long in the market in the trading floor. However, a breakdown from 1.1910 will suggest another low is yet to come. We will keep you posted on any taken trades.

Friday 12th March 2021

The EURUSD is trading on a key resistance zone at 1.1990. A break above the 1.1200 resistance will indicate bulls are back in control. We cannot rule out another move lower towards the 1.618 FIB extension until the 1.1200 resistance is taken out as we can still be in a C wave decline.

The next move will be dictated by the USD index. If the USD index continues to move lower, then the EURUSD will become very attractive for a BUY position as it is still very low on its range, we will be looking to target the 1.24 zone once BULLS take control.

Thursday 11th March 2021

The EURUSD is currently trending lower, however, we are yet to see if the final correction has finished. We remain unbiased on this currency pair. Later this evening we have the ECB interest rate decision and statement which we will be potentially looking to trade.

If this correction has finished the market could be setting up for another move higher, which would align with the DXY corrective structure we have highlighted as well.