Monday 27th June 2022
The DXY has set up a bearish divergence on the daily and weekly time frame, therefore we are remaining in the US dollar weakness camp for the next week. We are looking to build a second position on the EURUSD over the next couple of days. USDCAD is also approaching our take profit target. There should be a 3-wave decline minimum, if the US dollar sets up a 5-wave decline there will be a case for a top in the market. Equities and cryptos bounced on Friday which also aligns with a weaker DXY.
Tuesday 21st June 2022
The DXY turned sharply lower last week and has bounce fro the 103.50 support level. There is a gap up in the market at the 103.80 level, which will fill at some stage, therefore we are leaning towards a weaker DXY in the short term. The Dollar has had a relentless rally over the past couple of months and is potentially due a sizeable pull back. This aligns with a number of our Elliott wave counts that indicate a stronger AUDUSD and EURUSD over the next week. We are looking to re-enter on a number of trades that are based on a weaker dollar scenario. The weekly charts are indicating a bearish divergence which also suggests a possible topping formation. MACD is yet to cross over to the downside though.
Friday 10th June
Our view of the DXY reversing lower has not changed, however over night I took a short on the AUDUSD as I was expecting a final push to the upside. There is still a CME gap down in the market that is yet to fill around the 103.86 resistance zone so I am keeping that in mind. Our BUY STOP position on the GBPUSD is still valid and I may look to re-adjust the entry later today.
Wednesday 8th June 2022
The DXY initially broke out to the upside of the 102.50 resistance level before reversing sharply lower. I was expecting a larger rally to the upside for the counter trend and unfortunately this did not occur. I will now be looking at currency pairs like the GBPUSD or the EURUSD for long trade setups. This is possibly the start of another decline for the DXY after the a-b-c corrective rally.
Monday 6th June
The longer-term chart is indicating a possible top is in place for the DXY, especially considering the MACD which is close to crossing over to the downside. There has been a series of bearish weekly candle formations showing selling pressure in the market. However, the DXY on the 1-hour chart is suggesting a short term bullish outlook. There is an inverse head and shoulders structure in play, which is indicating a move to the upside. I am aware of a longer-term bearish view, but over the next week, I am looking for a move into the 103 area. The strong US employment numbers on Friday night also support a stronger USD.
Tuesday 30th May 2022
The DXY is testing the top of the rising channel structure and there is also a falling wedge formation on the 1 hour time frame. Last week we were looking for a bounce higher, however I was too early into the market. I may look to re-load a DXY long position tonight leading into the US session, with the GBPUSD or EURUSD on the short trade watchlist.
Tuesday 24th May 2022
The DXY has possibly completed its first 5 wave decline inside a leading diagonal structure. A leading diagonal is a wedge structure that can occur at the start of a trend rather than at the end of a trend. I am looking for a counter-trend rally this week, specifically on either the USDJPY or USDCHF.
Friday 20th May 2022
The DXY turned lower as expected however I am cautious as the gap down in the price action did not fill. Gaps in the market are always filled at some point in time, this is due to liquidity providers holding the other side of the trade. They will try to move the market to fill the gap so they can offload their position. This is generally why there are sharp reversals once gaps are filled. I can count a 5 wave decline on the DXY which is a good sign of another 5 wave decline once an ABC correction has occurred. This is similar on the EURUSD, AUDUSD and GBPUSD. We will wait for a corrective rally before taking another DXY short trade.
The turn down on the USDCHF has been very sharp which indicates an end of a trend. I can only could a 3 wave rally so I am assuming the bullish move to the upside is not fully complete. There needs to be a period of consolidation to set up a wave 4 correction, once this has been completed we can look for the next long trade.
Wednesday 18th May
The DXY has broken down from a rising wedge structure and investors are most likely profit taking from these levels and rotating back into risk on assets. We are positioned well on the AUDUSD and the S&P500, I want to get a long trade into the GBPUSD and also an EU Index over the next 24 hours. Our first target for the DXY to the downside is a retest of the rising channel structure.
The USDCHF has finally broken down from the rising channel structure, and it appears as though a wave (iii) top is in place. The next long trade setup will come after a period of consolidation and an ABC correction or a triangle structure. We will let the price action unfold over the next few days.
Monday 9th May
Non-stop rallying on the DXY due to the FED raising interest rates and expectations of rate hikes over the coming months. Looking across the board, EURUSD, USDCAD and the AUDUSD all have further to move in the favour of the USD. Below is an interesting chart with the DXY against BTCUSD. The major bottom at $3,500 on BTCUSD also correlated with the major top on the DXY back at the start of the covid-19 pandemic. We have also seen the major low on the DXY correlate with the major top of BTCUSD at $65,500. Therefore, whilst the DXY is continuing its bullish move to the upside we can assume the crypto market will remain under pressure.
Saturday 9th April
Here we are, the DXY has hit the 100 resistance level. From an Elliott wave perspective there is a chance of a reversal on this pair over the coming weeks, especially considering the longer term count on the DXY and EURUSD. We will not jump the gun and short the DXY, we will need to see evidence of a reversal, and that would include an initial 5 wave decline. Sit tight!
Wednesday 6th April 2022
The DXY has finally began moving to the upside after the sideways corrective rally. Unfortunately our USDCAD long trade wa stopped out just prior to a move higher. Typical stop hunt scenario with the long wick down. Elliott wave does not tell us where the price action will end, however the 100 resistance will possibly have a reaction of some sort due to the whole number.
Tuesday 29th March 2022
The DXY is possibly approaching the end to a major ABC corrective counter trend rally. We are still expecting a final push to the upside and there are a number of high impact risk events this week that can provide the volatility. The US reports the next round of unemployment data and NFP numbers. Elliott wave theory aside, the DXY remains in a bullish trend and is trading above a key trend line support.
Tuesday 22nd March
The DXY has set up another ABC side ways corrective structure so there is a chance for another high into the 100 resistance level before a major turn down. This also aligns with the sideways correction on the EURUSD, which is possibly breaking down from the rising trend line support. The EURUSD has also set up an ABC counter rally higher.
Thursday 17th March
We are still waiting for the DXY to complete the ABC corrective, counter-trend rally, and our count suggests a top is approaching for the DXY. The FED raised interest rates by the expected 0.25% this morning and the DXY has initially moved lower from the rate hike. There were some expectations of a larger interest rate hike, but this did not occur, along with the possible buy the rumour sell the fact scenario. There is also another fundamental news story in play putting downside pressure on the DXY. Saudi Arabia has announced they are in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales in the Chinese Yuan. These talks have accelerated over the past year, and decoupling from the PetroDollar will paint a bearish picture for the US.
Friday 4th March 2022
The DXY has hit resistance at 97.70. On the shorter term time frame we can see a rising wedge formation and a clear 5 wave structure to the upside. Therefore, there is a strong chance the DXY is reaching the final stages of its rise. We are watching for reversal trades on the EURUSD.
Monday 21st February
The DXY has possibly completed a 3 wave correction from the low of roughly 89.00. Both the USDJPY and EURUSD on the weekly time frame support a possible change in trend over the coming weeks. I am waiting for a long opportunity on the EURUSD and watching the USDJPY closely. The only issue is the conflict in Europe which should see strength return to the USD as a safe haven currency.
Tuesday 15th February
There is a case for a possible top in on the DXY which would align with the EURUSD bullish reversal. However, the fundamentals do not align with a declining DXY which is putting a spanner in the works. Rising interest rates in the US and the possibility of war in Europe both favour a stronger USD. We are tracking a reversal on the DXY, however depending on which count you go for there is also a possibility of one more high to go. There is a bearish reversal level below the most recent swing low.
Wednesday 2nd February 2022
The DXY is facing some significant selling pressure as the market turns back into a risk-on sentiment. As you may know, we are expecting the DXY to break down from the rising channel structure and continue with its longer-term bearish trend, however, we were expecting one final push into the 97.73 resistance zone (didn’t quite reach the target last week). We are watching for shorting opportunities but do not want to rush into a position too early.
Monday 31st January
There was a strong rally into the safe-haven currencies last week with the USD and JPY benefiting from the move. We were positioned well in the market and took full advantage of the risk-off sentiment. We are still expecting another final move to the upside however the DXY could be approaching a top in the market soon. We will let the market settle down today and look to reposition leading into the NFP and unemployment data over the next couple of days.
Thursday 27th January
The DXY is running higher post-FED interest rate decision and press conference. The FED has signalled rate hike will occur sooner rather than later, indicating a March rate hike. They have also suggested the balance sheet will reduce significantly over the coming months. As expected the DXY is running higher and looks set to move into the 97.80 resistance. We have just executed a short position on the AUDUSD, and will look to get into a metals play or back into the EURUSD later today.
Monday 24th January
The DXY surged rapidly towards the end of last week due to the risk-off market sentiment. All risk assets are down, with a deep correction in the crypto market over the weekend. Technically speaking, global indices have more room to move to the downside which favours another rally here for the DXY. We are short on the EURUSD and are looking for second entry points to execute over the next day or two.
Monday 17th January
The DXY has had a strong bounce on the 94.64 support zone indicating a possible bullish reversal. We are watching the EURUSD and AUDUSD for another shorting opportunity. The EURUSD has had a nice rejection from a negative trend line resistance.
Friday 14th January
The past couple of days has seen a large dump on the DXY despite inflation coming out above expectations. It is too early to call a bearish reversal and a technical bounce higher is a possibility. We may revisit the EURUSD again as the pair is trading at a major resistance zone.
Monday 10th January
Despite the deep correction on the DXY, the bullish outlook still remains valid as long as the 95.57 support holds. Any break beneath this level will invalidate our setup. We need the DXY to pick up some momentum over the coming days. There are a number of economic risk events taking place this week including a speech from the FED chair, Jerome Powell, and a very important inflation reading from the US. The market expectation is another increase in inflation which will push the DXY higher due to inflation fears and interest rate hike expectations.
Thursday 6th January
The DXY has setup a bullish 5 wave rally followed by a classic ABC corrective structure, this indicates a new bullish move to the upside is underway. The moves came post FOMC minutes this morning. The statement indicates the FED is ready to raise interest rates sooner than the market initially expected and may look to reduce its balance sheet. The market is moving in a risk-off sentiment.
We are already short AUDUSD and GOLD, personally, I also like the EURUSD however we may not want to overexpose ourselves. I have given trade setups in today’s webinar on youtube for the EURUSD, if you are happy to take the trade good luck!
Tuesday 4th January
The DXY has potentially finished its recent corrective structure and appears to be setting up another move to the upside. Unfortunately, the DXY failed to break through the 95.56 support level like we initially hoped for. We are looking for shorting opportunities on either the AUDUSD or GOLD over the next 24 hours. Long term we are in the bearish camp, but based on the short term technical structure we are expecting a final push to the upside.
Wednesday 29th December
The DXY has been consolidating sideways for the past week with very little movement. Price action is becoming compressed inside the pennant formation so we are waiting for a breakout either way. There is a trend line support coming into play at the 96.15 level so there is a chance of a bounce higher from here. We just need to remain patient for the time being. A run higher would put some downside pressure on metals and the EURUSD.
Thursday 23rd December
The DXY is still trading inside a consolidation structure, it may also qualify as a bear flag. If you take a look at the USDCAD, USDCHF and USDJPY they are all suggesting a possible weaker USD over the coming days, therefore we are staying in the bearish camp for the DXY in the short term. This should play into our positions on USDCHF, GOLD and Crude Oil.
Thursday 16th December
Initially, we were playing with a triangle formation on the DXY but the spike higher has invalidated that particular setup. The structure is still bearish in the short term as it appears to be corrective and prices should decline over the next couple of days. The recent spike higher is also a lower high which indicates a possible change in trend. We are looking to play the bearish DXY setup on the AUDUSD and may move into another pair or commodity later today.
Monday 13th December
Despite the US inflation data rising again for the month of November, the USD weakened across the board. This is potentially due to the data coming out in line with the forecast. There is a triangle formation in play at the top of the channel structure so I am waiting for a breakout before committing to another USD position. AUDUSD and GBPUSD are looking attractive for long trade setups.
Wednesday 8th December
The DXY has been teasing a breakdown from the rising trendline support. Technically speaking there is a 5 wave decline which indicates a possible change in trend, or the start of an ABC correction. Either way, there should be at least one more leg down for the DXY. A decline in the DXY would indicate a decreased demand for the safe-haven currency which has been seen overnight as the VIX has rejected the top of the channel structure.
Monday 6th December
On Friday night the US reported mixed/conflicting economic data, the unemployment rate declined to 4.2% whereas the US NFP came out well below the forecast at only 235K. Average hourly earnings also came in below forecast at 0.3% MoM and 4.8% YoY. As you know the USD has been tough to trade, the AUDUSD and NZDUSD took a deep turn lower on Friday night despite the DXY holding its price at the 96.20 level. Technically speaking there are a couple of bearish reversal patterns so we will keep a close eye on this chart this week.
Friday 3rd December 2021
The DXY is back inside the rising channel structure and despite global equities moving lower due to the risk-off market sentiment, the DXY has actually declined in value. There has been a cross over on the MACD which is generally a reversal signal when found on the daily time frame.
The USDCHF created a fake breakout above the pennant structure and has since declined lower. We are looking to take a short position here if the USDCHF breaks down. It will depend on the DXY moving lower as well, this is one to keep your eyes on.
Tuesday 23rd November
The reappointment of Powell as the FED Chair is giving the DXY more fuel to the upside. Brainard was considered a DXY dove as she would have been more inclined to leave interest rates lower for a longer period of time. Currently, the market is pricing in a rate hike in June/July for the US of 25 basis points. The DXY is trading above the rising channel structure and the MACD has broken out of a pennant structure. Most indicators are pointing higher for the time being. We will be sitting on the side lines on the DXY for a couple of days.
Thursday 18th November
The DXY is trading at the top end of the rising channel structure, so technically speaking a pullback scenario is on the cards. USDCAD is still trading higher so we will leave that pair for the time being. I am watching the EURUSD for a major trend reversal over the coming week.
Tuesday 16th November
The DXY has continued to the upside alongside metals, at some stage they should resume their usual inverse correlation. The MACD is trading inside a pennant which indicates momentum is not in a clear direction just yet, the highs are getting lower and the lows are getting higher each time. Once the MACD breaks out either above or below the pennant a trend should be formed. The DXY is approaching the 95.80 resistance so we will need to see how it reacts here before committing to a trade.
Friday 12th November
The DXY has broken out above the 94.80 resistance alongside metals which is strange. Both gold, silver and the DXY are running higher on inflation fears. Inflation in the US came out well above forecast at 6.2% on Thursday which indicates inflation is not as transitory as the FED has been suggesting. We are going to stay clear of the USD for the remainder of the week.
Monday 8th November
The DXY has set up a higher high (bullish), but also an inverted hammer candle formation (bearish). Last week we were completely on the wrong side of the DXY so we are going to wait for this price action to unfold further before committing to a trend direction. On the bearish side id like to see a move beneath the rising trendline support.
Friday 29th October
The DXY is moving lower as expected. The RSI and MACD are signalling a bearish turn to the downside which is playing into our long EURUSD and GBPUSD positions. Overnight the US GDP came in below forecast at 2%, which is the result we were hoping for. The US economy has gone from a 6.7% increase in GDP the month previous to a 2% rise in GDP in last nights result. The sharp decrease in economic output is signalling trouble in the US economy due to supply chain bottlenecks and surging inflation. This decrease in GDP output will also put upside pressure on inflation, if you cast your minds back to last weeks GOLD email, the higher inflation runs whilst rates remain the same, the further “real rates” move into the negative. This is setting up a bullish outlook for metals, and we will be looking to buy the dips on SILVER and GOLD.
Monday 25th October
No significant change on the DXY. The weekly structure is looking bearish and pairs like the EURUSD are looking bullish. However, the USDCAD also looks bullish from a technical perspective so there are a couple of conflicting setups. Gold and silver look bullish in the weekly time frame so we will need to monitor the DXY moving forward. There needs to be follow-through to the downside on the DXY to play into our long metal setups. Later this week the US reports the next round of GDP which is expected to be a 2.8% increase from a 6.8% rise last month. Any result below 2.8% should result in a bearish DXY scenario.
Thursday 21st October
The DXY has continued its decline possibly due to the FED Governor comments regarding interest rates. There has been some jawboning in play, which is where officials play down the strength of a currency. Christopher Waller has played down rising interest rate questions, suggesting they are still some way off. This has put downside pressure on the USD and is helping our SILVER long trade. We are looking to possibly get back into a DXY short play, either the NZDUSD or the AUDUSD are options. US equities have continued to the upside and are just shy of record highs suggesting the market is very much risk on.
Monday 18th October
The DXY came off its highs as expected last week, however, we can not confirm a bearish reversal just yet. There is a bearish divergence coming into play adding weight to the bearish sentiment. On one hand, inflation is continuing to the upside adding pressure on the FED to continue with their plan to begin bond tapering next month, which is bullish for the USD. On the other hand, once supply chain restrictions ease, inflation should come down which would reduce the pressure to begin bond tapering. There has been an inverse correlation between the DXY and the stock market since the covid-19 pandemic, and this relationship continued on Friday with the US stock market rallying to the upside whilst the DXY declined. The US government has raised the debt ceiling temporarily and issues in China appears to be contained, for the time being, these are both positive for the stock market. I want to let the market play out of the next 24 hours before making a decision on the next USD trade setup. We will let our EURUSD trade run.
Wednesday 6th October
The DXY is a tricky one to call at the moment as it is resting on the new 93.60 support zone. Looking across the board the JPY cross pairs are moving in a risk-on sentiment, additionally, the US stock market looks ready for a bounce higher (check the NASDAQ chart in indices tab). This indicates a possible decline in the DXY index as the USD moves invertedly to equities. However, technically the DXY is still above resistance which indicates bulls are still in control for the time being. IF the DXY breaks down beneath 93.60 we can look to go long on the AUDUSD or EURUSD.
Friday 1st October
The inverse relationship between the USD and risk assets has remained consistent over the past couple of weeks. The USD has rallied into the 94.60 resistance as equity prices declined. Based on the bullish technical structure on gold I am watching for a possible reversal on the DXY soon. The US stock market has remained under pressure this week and at some stage there could be a corrective rally. Interestingly, the AUDUSD and GOLD has not set up a lower low meaning they could still be in a bullish trend. Despite the risk-off rally, the JPY has also weakened across the board which is very uncommon. Usually, pairs like the AUDJPY will come under pressure, however, the AUDJPY actually looks bullish. I am watching the AUDJPY for another long trade today.
Tuesday 28th September
The DXY is moving closer to the invalidation level which would be the headline at 93.72. With all the uncertainty in the market at the moment, we can assume the demand for the USD is relatively high, however, I would not look to buy the USD unless the headline resistance is taken out. Just a waiting game on the USD front for the time being.
Tuesday 21st September
Technically, the DXY has set up a shooting start reversal candlestick formation on the daily chart. We will remain neutral on the DXY unless a move towards the 93.70 resistance occurs, OR if the DXY breaks back into the head and shoulders structure – which would indicate the H&S bearish scenario is still in play. This actually aligns very nicely with our bullish scenario for gold. We are watching gold for a long trade today.
Thursday 16th September
I wanted to highlight a couple of head and shoulder formations that have set up a bearish move on the DXY previously. The DXY has been very choppy this week, we were expecting a clean move towards the shoulder line at 93.20 which has not occurred. However, H&S structures sometimes do not create a symmetrical setup, so we need to be aware of a move to the downside over the coming weeks. If this does happen, it would also indicate a top in the stock market is not in place just yet. For a top to be in place there would need to be a significant move to the upside for the USD which looks unlikely at the moment due to this bearish technical pattern.
Tuesday 14th September
There are two possible scenarios here on the DXY. To help our current positions we need the DXY to rally into the 93.10 resistance which would also indicate a further risk-off move in the market. However, we do need to be aware of the larger head and shoulders structure which suggests a large move to the downside for the USD. We will be preparing a trade on the EURUSD for the bearish DXY scenario later this evening.
DXY Bearish Scenario
Monday 13th September
The bull flag breakout and inverted head and shoulders structure are both indicating a move to the upside. This would suggest a further risk-off move in the market as generally the USD and equities move in opposite directions. We may need to have a re-shuffle on some positions as the JPY could also strengthen alongside the USD. I will keep you posted later this afternoon, we are either tracking the USDCAD, NZDUSD or AUDUSD for a possible trade setup.
Wednesday 8th September
The DXY broke out of the negative trend line resistance and appears to be setting up a possible head and shoulders structure. We were initially expecting the DXY to reach the 91.80 support however that looks less likely now. We will stay long on the USD until the right shoulder has formed. The whole market appears to be moving in line with the DXY – gold has broken down and appears to be setting up an inverted head and shoulders formation along with the EURUSD.
Monday 6th September
The DXY is still in decline coming out of the NFP miss on Friday night which played perfectly into our long gold trade. There is a possible corrective bounce due soon on the DXY, major support is coming into play at the 91.80-91.50 level.
Friday 3rd September
There has been a clean breakdown from the 92.40 support zone and appears to be moving towards the 91.80 level leading into tonights NFP and unemployment report. The weakening DXY should play into our commodity long trades.
Wednesday 1st September
The DXY has found support at the 92.50 region. Technically, there is a possible head and shoulders setting up, which would mean a corrective rally on the USD before a larger decline. If the DXY reaches the 92.30 resistance we can look to buy assets like gold or the EURUSD. We will need to see how this plays out over the coming days. The ideal scenario would be a DXY rally into the NFP and unemployment data on Friday night before a big move lower.
Monday 30th August
The DXY dumped on Friday as expected. The FED Chair Jerome Powell indicated tapering should occur by the end of 2021, however, he also stated interest rates will remain near record lows for the foreseeable future. If you cast your minds back to 2018, the FED decided to raise interest rates and the market didn’t take the news very well, with a large sell-off across risk assets. The FED are now very cautious with interest rates, so although they are planning to dial back bond purchases, interest rates are another question. This news pushed the DXY down which has played into our USDCAD short position. This week the US Non-Fam Payroll on Friday will be another blockbuster announcement.
Wednesday 25th August
The DXY has broken down from the rising wedge structure suggesting bearish pressure is coming into play, or traders are trimming down their long positions prior to the Jackson Hole meeting which begins tomorrow. If the DXY breaks beneath the 92.20 support (previous pennant formation) we can assume the bearish trend is back. Looking across the board, EURUSD, GBPUSD and the NZDUSD all look relatively bullish along with GOLD.
Monday 23rd August
DXY moved to the upside throughout last week due to a number of negative fundamentals resulting in a risk-off market sentiment. We are expecting volatility to pick up towards the end of the week as the Jackson Hole meeting becomes the main focus. We will need to see how the market is positioned on Thursday to make a more informed decision. Generally, the FED are supportive of the market, therefore I wouldn’t be surprised if they try to play down the DXY. There has been a bullish breakout of the pennant, but there is also a possible rising wedge. Let’s see how this unfolds over the coming days.
Tuesday 17th August
Tricky one on the DXY, the large pullback looks impulsive to the downside but there are a number of technical support lines coming into play. Interestingly, the DXY did not rally alongside the JPY overnight. On the shorter-term time frame, there is also a possible bear flag structure. We will keep an eye out for further weakness coming into play this week.
Monday 9th August
Nice run on the DXY from Fridays NFP and unemployment data. Expectations that the FED will begin bond tapering are rising due to the strong economic data. Ideally we will no see the DXY continue towards the 93.40 resistance. We will keep a close eye on the DXY over the next couple of days.
Thursday 5th August 2021
The DXY has found support at 91.50. We have the US Non-Fram Payroll and unemployment data due on Friday night. Many analysts are forecast a 1 million result for the NFP meaning the DXY could rally into the announcement over the coming days. The labour market will be a key driver of the FED monetary policy, if more jobs are created there is a possibility of bond tapering leading into the Jackson hole FED meeting later this month. The weekly charts do look rather bullish, the MACD is beginning to pulse to the upside.
Tuesday 3rd August 2021
The DXY has bounced a previous support zone at 91.90. Although the overall trend is still bearish there is a possible short term bounce which we are currently trading on the USDCAD. On the one hand, the structure looks bearish due to the previous MACD cross over and bearish divergence on the RSI, however, from a fundamental perspective, there are a number of risk events taking place that could result in a large risk-off market sentiment. Looking at US indices they are at ridiculous valuations inside sharp rising wedge structures, which indicates a reversal is around the corner. If the US stock market corrects lower the DXY will no doubt rally higher due to the safe-haven appeal. So we need to be prepared for both scenarios.
Friday 30th July 2021
The DXY has created a clean breakdown from the rising wedge structure as anticipated playing into our positions. There is a possibility of a bounce soon, however, I am expecting the bounce to be a correction rather than an impulsive move higher. This should provide us with an opportunity to short the DXY from a higher entry point. From a technical perspective, there could be a head and shoulders formation setting up as this is consistent with the USDCAD and the EURUSD.
Wednesday 28th July 2021
Finally, the DXY has seen a breakdown from the never-ending rising wedge structure. Interestingly, the DXY has also broken back down inside the triangle structure. We still need to be aware of a possible rally to the upside as the FED Chair Jerome Powell is due to talk over the coming days alongside the US interest rate decision and statement. Once our trades are clear in the green we can move the SL to breakeven.
Monday 26th July 2021
The DXY has broken down from the rising trend line support, however, the price action is still inside the rising wedge structure. RSI and MACD are both signalling a bearish reversal opportunity. There are a number of US fundamental events taking place this week that will result in volatility across all USD pairs. We will maintain our EURUSD long trade for the time being.
Thursday 22nd July 2021
The DXY is still trading inside the rising wedge structure, also known as an ending diagonal structure. This is generally a reversal structure but clearly too early to call. Looking at the candle formations we can see a bearish engulfing candle which has also set up a reversal opportunity previously. RSI is showing a bearish divergence. The trade we would like to take is a EURUSD long once the breakdown is confirmed. Gold long trade is also on the cards.
Tuesday 20th July 2021
The DXY is teasing a breakout to the upside, so want to be prepared for that. If there is a continuation to the upside expect the risk-off sentiment to continue. Fears of rising interest rates/inflation are increasing along with increased global covid19 infections. This is resulting in a move into the USD. 93.40 and 94.40 will be the next resistance zones.
Monday 19th July 2021
The DXY is at a make or break situation. A breakout to the upside will suggest a risk-off scenario in the markets with stocks and equities moving lower. On the other hand, if the DXY breaks down from the rising wedge structure we can expect to see a recovery in risk assets and metals.
Friday 16th July 2021
The DXY has been very tricky to predict over the past couple of weeks. Technically it looks great for a sell but the market is not playing ball. There has been a very choppy price action which has been putting pressure on all USD pairs. Obviously, we need to remain unbiased in terms of what we want to happen and trade what we see. There is still a pennant formation on the daily time frame which is providing resistance. All technicals are suggesting a bearish reversal is coming. If anyone has any other analysis with a bullish picture please share!
Tuesday 19th July 2021
The DXY has broken down from the rising wedge structure which should play into our EURUSD long trade. RSI is showing a bearish divergence suggesting the DXY will continue to move lower.
Friday 9th July 2021
The DXY is trading at the upper level of a possible triangle formation. The rally on the DXY has resulted in a pull back in the stock market and a move into safe haven currencies like the JPY. On the shorter-term time frame, the DXY has a possible rising wedge structure which can indicate a reversal opportunity. IF the DXY breaks down from the rising wedge it will play into our long silver play.
Tuesday 29th June 2021
The 200-day moving average is providing support for the DXY. There has also been a possible bull flag breakout which suggests bulls are in control. US Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment data are due on Friday night which will provide volatility on all USD pairings.
Friday 25th June 2021
The DXY is breaking to the upside of the bull flag structure as expected. We may enter the EURUSD slightly earlier to our SELL STOP level to get a better entry point. I will keep you posted over the next couple of hours. A rally on the USD may result in a risk-off market sentiment during tonights US session.
Wednesday 23rd June 2021
The DXY is correcting lower after the recent breakout from the negative trendline resistance. This appears to be in only 3 waves, therefore we have to consider this as a correction rather than a trend. If the 92.12 resistance is taken out we can expect another move to the upside. Support can be found at 91.35.
Thursday 17th June
The DXY surged based on multiple FED members bringing forward their interest rate hike projections to 2023. The DXY is approaching a major resistance level, which could be a technical head and shoulders formation. The FED maintained their view that inflation is going to be transitory and they would need to see unemployment fall before considering any rate hikes. However, the tone is beginning to become more bullish. The negative trend line resistance is coming into play at the same resistance zone. We will need to see a breakout before considering going long on the USD.
Tuesday 15th June 2021
The sharp rise on the DXY has thrown a spanner in the works. However, it is still a lower high on the 1-hour time frame. We need to see the price action unfold before looking to reenter on the USD. Due to the overlapping structure, I am still on the side of a corrective rise rather than a bullish trend.
Thursday 10th June 2021
The DXY is in consolidation mode leading into tonights CPI data release. We can count three waves as a correction as they are overlapping in nature, so in theory the DXY should be moving lower, we just need some fundamental stimulus to push the index to the downside.
Monday 7th June 2021
The DXY is back down retesting the pennant formation trend line. On Friday we were expecting a rise towards the 1.618% FIB extension which did not play out. All the technical were suggesting further upside. We are going to remain cautious on the USD leading into this week. The long term bearish trend is still intact.
Thursday 3rd June 2021
The DXY reversed overnight and the EURUSD moved back to breakeven. The USD has been consolidating sideways for a couple of weeks now making it difficult to predict the correct direction. There are a number of high impact data points coming from the US tonight and tomorrow which should provide a clearer picture.
Tuesday 1st June 2021
The DXY broke out of the falling wedge structure last week and has possibly set up a five-wave move higher. This tends to be a bullish structure suggesting there will be another 5 wave rise after a correction. If the DXY breaks the 89.50 support then bears are in control. A move above 90.15 will provide an opportunity to go short on the EURUSD.
Wednesday 26th May 2021
The DXY is showing a bullish reversal opportunity as there is a bullish divergence on the RSI alongside a falling wedge structure. We are already on the AUDUSD and NZDUSD short side, therefore I would like to see a breakout to the upside before entering another position. GBPUSD SHORT is on my watch list.
Monday 24th May 2021
The DXY is still trading inside the falling wedge/ending diagonal formation. This week we will be focusing on a DXY breakout which will play into our NZDUSD and AUDUSD short positions. Furthermore, if the DXY breaks out we will be looking to add a SHORT position on the GBPUSD. This will also indicate a possible risk-off sentiment in the market which could see stocks move lower.
Friday 21st May 2021
The DXY reversed overnight and is trading between a falling wedge structure, this comes as the global stock market recovered. The recovery is not yet confirmed in the stock market, and could well be a dead cat bounce. We are positioned on the long side of the DXY therefore we need to see some strength coming back into play during tonights US session, which would mean another risk-off play in the market.
Wednesday 19th May 2021
DXY has hit the support zone highlighted yesterday, ideally, I would like to see a rally from support which would play into our AUDUSD short position. This will also provide an opportunity to go long on the USDCAD on the breakout. Let’s see how the DXY reacts from here.
Tuesday 18th May 2021
The DXY is moving lower towards the 89.72 support zone suggesting there is a possibility of further weakness coming on the USD. We still remain on the bullish side for the USDJPY based on JPY weakness.
Wednesday 5th May 2021
The DXY has moved towards the 91.40 resistance again. From here we are watching for a move back towards the 90.90 support, which could provide an opportunity to go long. This would play into the EURUSD short opportunity highlighted in the EURUSD tab.
Tuesday 4th May 2021
The DXY has finally broken to the upside of the falling channel structure. The USD is now testing the 90.90 support which could be setting up an inverted head and shoulders formation. We may look to trade a stronger USD today, possibly looking at the USDCAD or EURUSD.
Tuesday 27th April 2021
The DXY is trading on the crucial 38% FIB retracement. The falling channel formation is still in tact and looks very similar to the USDJPY. The AUDUSD 5 waves run looks complete, along with the EURUSD so I am anticipating a rotation back into the USD in the near future. We will be looking to buy the USD if a breakout to the upside of the channel occurs. The FED interest rate decision and statement will no doubt result in some volatility over the coming days.
Monday 26th April 2021
The DXY has moved lower and has maintained its position underneath the negative trend line resistance. Keep in mind a weaker USD means risk ON and a stronger USD means risk off. The EUR is surging higher due to the weaker greenback. Our Elliott wave count on the DXY appears to be tracking well at the moment but there has not been any significant pullback yet. We will look to maintain our AUDUSD long position whilst the DXY trades beneath the negative trend line.
Friday 23rd April 2021
The DXY is testing the negative trend line resistance. The rise in the USD has resulted in a decline across risk assets from crypto to equities. If the DXY breaks to the upside here we can expect further downside on US stocks along with currency pairs like the AUDUSD, NZDUSD and EURUSD. A breakout to the upside may also provide an opportunity to go long on the USDCAD.
Wednesday 21st April 2021
The USD index has broken down lower than we initially anticipated this week. However, the recent rise has worked into our USDCAD buy position. Pairs like the EURUSD, AUDUSD also look ready for a pullback over the coming days so we are expecting a DXY rise from here.
Thursday 15th April 2021
The DXY is approaching support at the 91.35 zone just as the SP500 breaks down from the rising wedge formation. If there is a rally on the USD back towards the 92.45 resistance we can expect further downside on risk assets (US equities).
Tuesday 13th April 2021
The DXY is coming lower as expected. Be aware of a short term spike above the negative trend line. Tonight the US reports the next round of CPI data (a measure of inflation). IF the result comes in above the forecast there could be a spike in the DXY creating a risk-off sentiment in the market. We will be looking to play this later in the trading floor, possibly taking a look at the USDCAD.
Tuesday 6th April 2021
The DXY is moving lower as the risk-on sentiment kicks off the week. Our positions on the GBPUSD and AUDUSD are looking great so far for a continuation higher. Ideally, we will see the DXY break down from the rising wedge/triangle formation. We are yet to see if this rally has finished. The key level to look out for is the 91.50 support. Once this level is broken to the downside we can consider a new low coming into play for the USD index.
Thursday 1st April 2021
The DXY has created an over throw on the technical resistance line. Our ideal scenario would be for the USD to weaken from this level breaking down from the rising wedge formation. We need to see a breakdown back under 93.00 to confirm our scenario 1. However, we also need to be aware of a breakout above the negative trend line resistance. If there is a breakout then the USDCAD will be our long position going forward.
Tuesday 30th March 2021
No change on the DXY just yet, however, we are looking for a reversal opportunity. Ideally, we would see the DXY break down from the rising wedge formation over the course of this week. A weaker USD will no doubt be bullish for the rest of the market. The 93.20 resistance is our crucial level that must hold. A break to the upside would suggest a change in trend on the DXY with a continuation to the upside.
Friday 26th March 2021
The DXY continued its move higher overnight and is approaching a key resistance zone at 93.20. For the bearish scenario to play out we will need to see the DXY reject and breakdown from the rising triangle formation. A break above could see the index move towards 94.50. A breakout to the upside would suggest a top is in place for the US stock market and a risk off play will take place. Lets see how this plays out throughout the US session tonight.
Wednesday 24th March 2021
The DXY has strengthened from the crucial support at 91.40. We are now expecting the USD to continue strengthening for a final leg higher. Targets can be found at the 93.20 resistance. This may also mean the risk-off sentiment will continue in the short term.
Monday 22nd March 2021
The DXY had a large reversal from the crucial support zone at 91.40 last week. The market is ignoring the FED’s comments and expectations as the DXY continues to climb. Currently we are waiting for either a break above the 92.20 resistance to go long on the USD, or a break below the 91.40 support. If the DXY turns bearish the EURUSD will be our long trade idea, if the DXY turns bullish then silver will be our short trade.
Thursday 18th March 2021
The DXY has broken down from the bear flag structure and is trading on a crucial support zone. Looking across the market including equities and USD related currency pairs, everything appears to be riding on the DXY. If the USD breaks down from this zone we can expect a strong risk-on move across the market. ALL risk assets including cryptos will benefit from that. We are looking to buy into the EURUSD shortly.
Monday 15th March 2021
The 1-hour charts are showing a potential bull flag breakout, however, we are yet to be convinced of a stronger USD, just yet. As highlighted on Friday, the 91.40 region acted as a key support zone. This level is yet to be breached, once the DXY breaks down we will have the confidence to go short on the USD. For the time being we will maintain out current position on the USDJPY which is moving higher based on a weaker JPY.
Friday 12th March 2021
The DXY has declined to the key zone we highlighted in yesterdays members video. The market is now at a cross roads. If the DXY breaks down from this zone expect the global stock markets to continue rallying higher as this would suggest the USD will continue towards new lows at the 89-88 region.
However, if there is a bounce from this zone we could be set for one more rally on the DXY which will create another sizeable pull back on risk assets before the next rally. See today’s SP500 chart for a possible risk off scenario.
Thursday 11th March 2021
The USD index is showing signs of a potential corrective structure higher, meaning this rally is possibly only a correction and not an impulsive move. If the 91.36 support zone is breached it will put the bears back in control, and we will be looking to trade the index back down to the swing lows at 89.40.
Elliott Wave theory suggests corrective structures can be a 3-3-3 structure or a 5-3-5 structure. Below, we can see a 3-3-3 structure, we just need to see a breach of the 91.30 to confirm the USD will be heading lower.