Monday 17th January
We are still alive on the GOLD short position and the market has set up a possible lower high which is a bearish signal. The DXY has had a strong bounce on the major support zone which is helping our short position here. I am looking to possibly add a second position at these levels, but I will wait until the US session later this evening. EURUSD, AUDUSD and the USDCAD all appear to favour a move in the direction of the USD.
Friday 14th January
GOLD is still in play on the short side, we are running a fine line. We need to DXY to take a strong technical bounce higher to help out position out. Technically, the analysis is still valid until the 1830 resistance is taken out.
Monday 10th January
News of an escalating energy crisis across Europe, especially in Kazakhstan, potentially pushed oil to highs of 80 per barrel last week. However, these types of fundamental news events are usually short-lived and are generally buy the rumour sell the fact scenarios. Crude has reached the 23% FIB retracement level which is a key resistance zone. I am seriously considering a shorting opportunity here as the risk v reward is heavily skewed in our favour. Markets do look ready to take a serious risk off move, which should filter through to commodities as well as equities. Ill keep you posted on this one.
Thursday 6th January
Very close call on our GOLD short position, however, the sharp turn lower is playing into our bearish theory. 1830 appears to be a very crucial resistance level. GOLD technically looks similar to the AUDUSD which is breaking down from a bear flag structure. This setup is suggesting a very sharp decline in gold prices which would require an aggressive move to the upside on the DXY.
Crude Oil is also looking like a possible shorting opportunity based on the three-wave corrective rally. There is also a possible head and shoulders formation in play. I want to see some more downside here before committing to a short position. Let’s see how crude oil is trading tomorrow.
Tuesday 4th January
Looking at gold there is a strong possibility of a triangle formation in play, which would indicate a move towards 1700. A move towards 1700 would also be the last move in the triangle formation before a rally to the upside. If you take a close look at the triangle formation, each move is made up of 3 sub-waves labelled a,b and c. The recent rally into 1830 is potentially the top of a wave b before a sharp decline. IF the DXY runs higher this would put pressure on gold prices, so the inverse correlation indicates weakness in metals. I will keep you posted on any trade setup that we take on GOLD over the next 24 hours.
SILVER – Silver has really struggled to make any significant move from the 21.50 support level, in fact, the recent bounce higher has been very slow and highlights the possibility of a breakdown. This is the fourth time silver has tested the 21.50 support level, the more times a level is tested the weaker it becomes, similar to skimming a pebble across a pond, eventually it will break through. Long term we are still bullish on metals, however, we need to be aware of a possible breakdown in the short term. If gold leads the market to the downside we can expect silver to follow.
Wednesday 29th December
We closed our crude oil position down early however the price action has unfolded as expected. We are now waiting to see if a shorting opportunity presents itself as there is a possible head and shoulders formation setting up. For crude oil to turn lower there would need to be a significant risk off move in the market which could be led by global lockdowns. Across the world, there has been a record number of covid-19 cases which is currently being ignored by the market. Let’s see if anything changes over the coming days.
We are playing with the idea of a triangle formation setting up on GOLD which would suggest a move towards 1720 is on the cards. The recent rally into 1810-1815 failed to impulse to the upside so this could just be a corrective rally. If the DXY finally has a last push to the upside gold prices could fall lower.
Thursday 23rd December
Crude oil is tracking well so far, we are hoping for a final push into the 75-76 resistance zone. This is the forth attempt at the 73 resistance so the probability of a breakout is high. We will keep a close eye on the price action throughout the day.
Wednesday 8th December
The weakness in the DXY is playing into our long gold bias. We are looking to target the 1808-1815 resistance initially. SILVER is also on our watchlist for a long trade however I would like to see an impulsive 5 wave rally before committing to a buy position.
Monday 6th December
Silver has moved back into the major 22 support zone. The bullish invalidation level is 21.40. Technically speaking this could be a good area to start building some long trades with a really good risk v reward, so we are watching silver this week. For a move to the upside, we would need to see a breakdown of the DXY over the next couple of days.
Gold has broken to the upside of the falling wedge formation and the MACD is turning higher. Both are bullish reversal signals. Commodities have hopefully bottomed this week so we will be looking for long opportunities across silver and gold, whilst maintaining our position on crude oil.
Crude oil is retesting the broken falling wedge structure and the trade setup remains valid. If the retest does not hold we may need to close down early but I will keep you posted.
Friday 3rd December
There is a falling wedge structure on gold leading into tonights NFP and US unemployment data release. For gold to run higher the DXY will need to see some weakness overnight. We are watching gold for a long trade as long term we remain in the bullish camp.
Tuesday 23rd November
Silver has broken back beneath the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders formation. There is a rising trendline support coming into play. If this level is broken to the downside a deeper correction is on the cards. The rally in the DXY is putting downside pressure on metals, we need to see the DXY show signs of slowing down before re-entering on the long side.
Gold has also moved back into the 1809 support zone and is trading on the pennant structure. We are waiting for a long opportunity but may need to re-evaluate if the DXY continues to pick up momentum. As expected a retest of the pennant is taking place, which is why we were hesitant to enter a long trade. Let’s see how gold reacts on this level over the next couple of days.
Thursday 18th November
Gold is yet to retest the broken pennant structure so we are cautious of a pullback across metals. Looking at the shorter-term chart there has been a rising wedge breakout and a possible head and shoulders is setting up. We are still bullish across metals and will look to re-enter the market at a lower level.
Tuesday 16th November
Silver is retesting the neckline of the head and shoulders formation. This level needs to hold to confirm a continuation to the upside. MACD is signalling a bullish trend.
Gold has finally broken out of the year-long consolidation period and most technicals are indicating a continuation to the upside. The MACD is in the early stages of impulsing to the upside, and the 50-day moving average is close to a cross over on the 200-day moving average which is known as a golden cross. We will be looking to buy into gold on a pull-back. Ideally there should be a retest of the 1830 support level.
Friday 11th November
Silver is coming along very nicely! Finally a breakout above the inverse head and shoulders formation. There is still a long way to go on this one but it should move quickly as buyers will be stepping into the market. Technicals are all indicating higher prices. One concern is that gold and silver are both moving alongside the DXY which is very unusual. Stop-loss can be moved to break-even as the price action should not revisit that area now.
Breakout on gold as expected, the next key level is the 1916 resistance. This can start to rally pretty quickly now it has broken out of the pennant, we just need to pick a good entry point to get in on the action. Ideally there needs to be a pull back to re-test the pennant structure. I will keep you posted on any buy position throughout today.
Monday 8th November
The bullish outlook on gold and silver was correct, unfortunately, the stop was taken out on gold before a large move to the upside. Gold looks set to move into the crucial 1830 resistance over the next couple of days. We are watching for a possible breakout play from the pennant structure that has been in play for the past year. 1840 is our bullish level and we will be looking for dips to buy into. The current economic conditions support higher gold and silver prices.
Silver is tracking well, we need to see the 24.80 resistance taken out to confirm the inverted head and shoulders structure. Once taken out it should open to doors for a large move to the upside.
Friday 29th October 2021
Short term resistance is coming into play on SILVER at 24.84 and there is a possibility of a breakdown from the rising channel structure. We will be looking to buy back into the metal around the 22.50 level which could set up an inverse head and shoulders formation. If SILVER plays out as we are hoping, there is a possible large move to the upside coming over the next couple of months. For the time being, we will remain patient for the correct setup.
Monday 25th October
This is a very bullish Elliott wave count on SILVER, it indicates a large consolidation phase is complete as an ABC. It would also suggest we are setting up for a bull market that could break the 30 handle. We are long already so we will see how this plays out over the next couple of weeks, but it would need a large decline in the DXY. This is also similar to the bullish scenario on gold (second chart) which is setting up an inverse head and shoulders formation and bullish pennant.
Thursday 21st October
This is the bullish wave count we have on SILVER. If correct, silver could be setting up a large impulsive move to the upside for a Primary wave 3. Primary wave 3 is the largest wave in the bullish cycle. It appears as though the year-long consolidation has been complete with a nice ABC structure. From a fundamental perspective, the FED has downplayed the possibility of interest rate hikes in the near future which sets up a bullish outlook for metals as inflation remains high. FED Governor Christopher Walter said the FED should begin tapering bonds next month, though interest rates hikes are probably some way off. The FED’s most recent dot plot show half of the policymakers see rates rising by the end of 2022 and the other half expecting a rise by the end of 2023. If the FED delay raising interest rates the USD will see a decline across the board which plays into a long bias across metals.
Monday 18th October
Technically speaking, both GOLD and SILVER are setting up bullish outlooks. There is a large inverted head and shoulders formation on gold, followed by a bullish channel breakout on silver. Silver has been consolidating between 22-30 for the past year and gold has been in a declining consolidation structure. Looking at gold, the 1840 resistance is a key level that bulls must break for confirmation of a trend reversal. We are looking to reload on one of the metals this week, firstly, I want to see how the DXY reacts tonight as that will be a key driver of the market.
Wednesday 6th October
Crude oil on the weekly chart is setting up a fairly bullish structure. There has been a clear breakout above a long term negative trend line followed by a retest. If crude oil breaks above the 80 resistance which is a key zone, I wouldn’t be surprised if a move towards $100 occurs. We will be waiting for a pullback on the shorter-term time frame to get in on the action. Fundamentally, if crude continues to the upside we can expect the CAD to gain strength – which provides an opportunity on the CADJPY.
Friday 1st October
I have been waiting for gold to set up a bullish structure for us to look at going long again. Gold has set up a higher low, followed by a falling wedge structure which are both bullish technicals. If gold breaks to the upside it would suggest the USD may take a breather from the recent rally. We are waiting for a breakout play here to possibly ride gold towards the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders formation.
Tuesday 18th September
Silver is trading on a key support at 22.61. Whilst a buy does look attractive, the DXY concerns me. If the DXY breaks to the upside of the head and shoulders formation there could be a large drop coming for silver and gold. I would be more interested in a buy trade once the negative trend line resistance is broken to the upside. Most trade setups are waiting for the DXY to breakout either above or below the structure. This will indicate either a risk-on or risk-off market sentiment.
Tuesday 21st September
Gold has hit our target zone for a long trade scenario. This aligns with a bearish head and shoulders formation on the DXY. We held off trading the DXY last night as I wanted to confirm a bullish breakout which didn’t actually take place. There could be a very good risk v reward trade set up on gold if the DXY reverses and moves lower. Fundamentally, we need the FED to push back bond tapering and highlight the current risks in the economy during their meeting this week. The miss on inflation is playing into the FED’s transitory theory. Any comments in line with the thought process would send the DXY lower and help provide support for gold and the stock market – which is what the FED has been doing over the past year.
Tuesday 14th September
Technically there is a head and shoulders set up on gold, however, I am not interested in shorting the metal. I would like to wait for a buying opportunity. We may look to buy if the metal reaches the 1760 support zone, or if it breaks above the 1815 resistance.
Wednesday 8th September
There has been a clear breakdown from the rising channel/wedge. We will take another look at gold if it reaches the 1760 support zone. This could set up a nice buying opportunity for another large move to the upside. It will depend largely on the DXY head and shoulders formation.
Monday 6th September
Gold has reached our initial target zone at 1830. The plan is to wait for either a breakout to the upside or wait for another correction to buy back into at a lower price. If the DXY takes a technical bounce higher this week it would indicate a correction lower on gold. Silver (the second chart) is also setting up a bullish technical breakout. Silver has been range trading between $22-$30 since September 2020. Metals should resume its bullish trend if the DXY continues its decline.
Wednesday 1st September
Gold is still trading inside the rising channel structure with 1830 acting as a major resistance initially. We are expecting a reaction from this level over the coming days. We remain in the bullish camp for gold and would like to get into the market at some point. The issue is working out risk v reward ratios at the moment.
Monday 30th August
GOLD is looking very bullish from a technical and fundamental perspective. The flash crash a couple of weeks back would have taken out the majority of long positions in the market. There could be a correction from the 1830 resistance which is a key zone, we will be waiting for any pullbacks to go long in the market. Fundamentally, a weaker USD will support higher metal prices.
Thursday 26th August
This scenario is tracking well. Gold is in a corrective decline, ideally, the correction needs to be three waves. Once the correction is complete we can look to buy in again at the B wave top. Our outlook for metals remains bullish, especially gold. Good decision to close our long trade, nice work.
Wednesday 25th August
We decided to take the profit on gold last night as we can count a 5 wave structure and there was some selling pressure coming into the market. We remain in the bullish camp, however, there could be a short term correction coming over the next couple of days. Once a correction has complete we will be looking to potentially reposition. Solid trade.
Monday 23rd August
GOLD is still trading inside a bull flag structure, ideally, we need to see DXY weakness come into play tonight which will help commodities recover. There are a number of economic risks around the world at the moment, meaning the demand for gold should be high, despite the recent market sell off.
Thursday 12th August
A huge breakdown from the rising trendline support here on gold. The market is moving back for the retest as we speak. Any break back above the trendline would be bullish for the metal. For now, I do not see any obvious trading opportunity, so we will let the price action unfold over the next few sessions.
Monday 9th July 2021
Crude oil has rejected the 77 mirror resistance and is currently trading on the key support zone. Delta is weighing on oil prices and any escalation could easily result in a breakdown. OPEC provide their latest report on Thursday which will also provide volatility on crude prices.
Thursday 5th July 2021
There was a strange move across the metals market last night due to the whipsaw on the DXY. Interestingly, gold has failed the 1832 resistance for the third time and I wouldn’t be surprised on there was further downside from here. We will stay on the sidelines for gold and silver until a clear level is broken. On silver, we are waiting for a break above the wedge highlighted yesterday.
Tuesday 3rd August 2021
Silver is an interesting one, there has been a breakdown from the rising trend line support followed by a retest which indicates a bearish sentiment. However, there is also a falling wedge structure that has set up a bullish breakout previously. Let’s see how this plays out over the coming sessions. We can look to buy a break above 25.80.
Wednesday 28th July 2021
The larger picture for gold is very interesting and this would suggest a large move to the upside is coming. There is a possible inverted head and shoulders structure in play. This would also mean the DXY could be set for a large correction to the downside. The shorter-term chart (second chart) has a possible bull flag structure, we will be waiting for a breakout to the upside before going long here.
Tuesday 20th July
Here is a possible bearish setup on gold, technically there is a retest of a broken channel formation alongside a head and shoulders formation. If the DXY continues to move higher this could put further pressure on the metal market. Long term we are still bullish, however, this ticks the box for a possible setup. We may look at this later this evening.
SILVER: There has been a breakdown from a very important trendline support. The outlook for silver from a technical perspective looks pretty bearish if the 24.00 support does not hold.
Monday 19th July 2021
Metals pulled lower on Friday and gold is testing an important technical structure. The 1810 support must hold for bulls to stay in control. The DXY is still trading inside the rising wedge structure at the top of a pennant formation. I guess the direction of the markets will depend largely on the direction of the DXY, we need to see a breakdown to play into our positions.
Tuesday 13th July 2021
The 1790 zone is now acting as support. Metals should benefit from a weaker DXY as the index has broken down from a rising wedge structure. The second chart on Silver also looks bullish as the metal has broken out of a falling wedge structure. We just need to sit tight on this trade.
Friday 9th July 2021
SILVER is possilby setting up a bull flag structure and trading on the 23% FIB retracement tool. The invalidation level for any long trades is at 25.50 support. If a new low is made the bearish trend will remain intact. Ideally, the DXY breaks down from the rising wedge structure which would provide upside momentum in the metals market.
Tuesday 6th July 2021
MACD on the daily charts has crossed over and appears to be moving higher. This has provided a bullish move when occurred previously. Yesterday’s daily candle was a bullish engulfing which suggests a move to the upside is on the cards. This is also similar for silver. FOMC minutes are due this week which could provide the next move on the USD and metals.
Friday 2nd July
Gold had the final dip as expected over the past couple of days and is showing signs of a bullish move higher. Before going long I would like to see either a break above 1795, or an inverted head and shoulders formation to buy into. This entry point will be crucial for a long term hold. We can count 5 structures in the wave a, 3 structures in wave b and 5 structures in wave c. This has now completed an abc correction.
Tuesday 29th June 2021
Gold and silver are still in consolidation mode, moving sideways inside a tight range. There is a possible head and shoulders formation in play here, however, I am not looking to trade this. Long term, based on Bidens infrastructure spending bill commodities should remain in high demand therefore prices should move higher. However, this will also depend on the direction of the DXY based on the inverse correlation.
Monday 21st June 2021
Gold has bounced on the 1760 support and will most likely retrace to the 1797 resistance. It is too soon to call a bottom on this pullback, the market will need to break back out of the falling channel formation for bulls to regain control.
Tuesday 15th June
Our position on GOLD came close to activation, thankfully the metal turned lower before the BUY stop. We are still in the bullish camp on gold, this appears to be just a pullback so far. We will be looking to update our entry point on gold today. This is going to be our key focus over the coming days whilst the USD index price action unfolds further.
Thursday 10th June
Gold has just tagged the 38% FIB retracement which is a key support zone in a bullish sequence. The channel formation needs to hold. I have taken a SMALL position here on gold with the pending order still waiting to be activated. The ABC correction should now have completed, which also aligns with the USDJPY due to the inverse correlation. Once the b wave top is taken out we should be in for a large move higher.
Tuesday 8th June 2021
Gold is the inverse of the USDJPY, we can see a 5 wave rise from the trendline support. We now need to wait for a corrective structure to buy into. I am expecting this to play out tonight/tomorrow, as always I will keep you posted.
Monday 7th June 2021
Commodities are continuing to run higher across the board. Gold is trading inside a rising bullish channel, the structure looks impulsive as there are no overlapping waves. Major resistance is set at 1960 where there could be a larger correction. We are possibly looking to go long on gold, however, I would like to see the DXY breakdown first which would provide a bullish outlook for gold.
Tuesday 1st June 2021
There has been a very bullish break out on gold and the metal appears to be moving towards the 1960 resistance. We are looking to buy any dips into the 1840 region, or if there is a retest on the broken trendline. Gold hasn’t provided any pull reasonable pullback to buy into just yet, therefore we need to remain patient for the correct opportunity.
Monday 24th May 2021
Crude Oil had a very bearish move towards the end of last week breaking down from the bear flag formation. For now, we will need to see a retest and rejection before considering going short again. The 57-55 zone is still our target level for further downside.
Wednesday 19th May 2021
Crude Oil has been VERY choppy, however, the short bias is still our preferred direction. The structure still appears to be a bear flag and this is one of the reasons we have taken a short on the CADJPY.
Silver has created a throw over from the 28.30 resistance. This is also known as a “stop hunt” where short-sellers are taken out of the market due to the tight SL above the resistance zone. We are watching for a possible reversal opportunity here.
Sunday 16th May 2021
Silver is trading between a rising channel formation with resistance coming in at 28.30. At the 28.30 resistance zone we will be watching for a potential sell opportunity to set up an inverse head and shoulders formation.
Tuesday 4th May 2021
Crude oil rallied higher after creating a 5 wave decline, so the structure still remains bearish. Ideally Crude will begin to move lower as the ABC correction looks complete.
Monday 26th April 2021
Gold has broken down from a rising wedge formation therefore we are waiting for a possible larger correction. If the USD continues to weaken it will provide a bullish outlook for metals. Our long term view remains with the bulls for gold, however ideally the market will set up a nice ABC correction for us to buy into.
Crude Oil – we picked up a nice win on crude last week and we may look to reenter on the short side. There is possible a deeper correction coming this week especially with the OPEC meeting on Thursday. The overall longer term trend remains bullish, but I would like to see crude trade down at the 57-55 support zone before considering going long in the market.
Tuesday 13th April 2021
No change on crude oil, price action is still compressing inside the triangle formation. This appears to be a similar story for the USDCAD which is setting up a triangle formation. The USDCAD will most likely breakout in the opposite direction to crude oil. Keep a close eye on both.
GOLD – The correction on gold is underway. We do not want to buy in just yet as we would ideally like to see the metal bottom before going long or wait for a break above 1750. We also have our position pending on silver in the trading floor live trades. Gold is a key trade we are looking to get into at some point as we see a strong possibility of the metal turning higher.
Thursday 8th April 2021
Crude oil has been very stubborn on the trend line support. Price action is very messy making it difficult to trade. Ideally, we want to see a breakdown to help our CAD trades. We will remain on the sidelines for the time being.
Tuesday 6th April 2021
Silver has broken the short term negative trend line resistance. There is potentially a bull flag structure in play on the metal. IF the DXY breaks down from the rising wedge formation, metals and commodities should benefit. We are looking to get into either gold or silver for a swing trade this week.
Crude Oil – crude has broken down from the rising trend line support, however, we have decided not to go short just yet. We need to see a retest of the trend line support and a close beneath the trend line. As always I will keep you posted IF we decide to take the trade.
Friday 26th March 2021
Silver has reached our expected support zone just as the DXY moves towards the key resistance. Interestingly, silver has created a textbook reversal daily candle. We can see a long Doji candle which can indicate a reversal opportunity. We will be looking to go long here, only if the DXY rejects the new resistance zone and once silver has broken the negative trend line resistance.
Wednesday 24th March 2021
Crude oil has come down as expected to the 57.30 support zone. We WILL be considering going long over the rest of the week, however buy on a falling knife is not fun. I will be looking for a bullish reversal pattern before considering going long on the market. If the DXY continues higher crude may continue to decline towards the 55 support zone. Lets see how this unfolds over the coming days.
SILVER – All commodities have taken a turn lower due to the stronger USD. The market may continue to decline if the DXY sets up a new high. We are waiting for buying opportunities on a number of commodities once the DXY has topped out.
Monday 22nd March 2021
Silver has been consolidating between a rising channel formation which may also be a bear flag structure. If the USD continues to rise expect metals to move lower, a breakdown from the bear flag structure will provide the green light to enter a short position. The 24.30 support can provide an initial target.
Crude Oil – This would have been the perfect trade, we positioned well last week. We are now waiting for a possible final leg lower before going long in the market. 63.50 is our bullish level. Any move above 63.50 would suggest bulls are back in control.
Thursday 18th March 2021
Gold is moving higher and we can now relax on the position. The metal is benefiting from a weaker USD. FED officials confirmed they will not be looking to increase interest rates until 2024. This should provide gold with the fuel to begin a new rally higher. We are positioned well to capitalise on that. Something to keep in mind is whether the market believes what the FED officials have said this morning. If US economic data continues to improve we may see the market diverge from the FED’s comments.
Monday 15th March 2021
Gold activated our order on Friday at the 1710 support zone. We positioned the SL well just below the 38% FIB retracement. Ideally, we will see the USD index breakdown from its current support zone providing gold with the fuel it needs to break above the 1740 neckline resistance. The target remains the same for the time being.
Friday 12th March 2021
Gold has set up a bullish breakout from the falling wedge formation. The metal is currently having a pull back, and we see the 1705-1710 a possible buy zone. The metal could be setting up an inverted head and shoulders formation. If the USD continues declining from its current area then metals will benefit from a weaker greenback. Keep in mind a rally on the USD will indicate a possible deeper correction across commodities.