Tuesday 21st June
The AUDJPY turned sharply lower last week and has since recovered into the 94.22 resistance zone. Over the next 24-48 hours we are expecting a continuation to the upside, however we are actively looking for shorting opportunities. The rally from the 86 low to the 97 high is only in 3 waves, which indicates a corrective rally. Therefore, based on the Elliott wave count we are expecting a large drop into the 88 support zone soon. This will complete an ABC correction on the larger degree. Looking at the fundamental side of things, the BoJ is doing all they can to contain interest rates, however at some point they will need to pivot and allow rates to rise, alongside the rest of the world. This will result in a large rotation back into the JPY. 96 is our first potential shorting zone.
Wednesday 15th June
Looking back at the EURAUD position, another trade that just hit our SL before reversing in the correct direction. Technically speaking there is an inverse head and shoulders structure in play, along side a bullish pennant breakout. This indicated a weaker AUD is on the cards, which leads me into the AUDJPY analysis below.
The AUDJPY has possibly completed its first 5 wave decline. The AUDJPY is now retracting higher, and for us to consider going short again, the rally needs to be in 3 sub waves, similar to the previous decline. This is another great opportunity to pick up 200+ pips, we just need to be patient for the corrective rally to unfold.
The EURJPY is also looking very similar to the AUDJPY. There has been an initial 5 wave decline, which generally means another 5 wave decline will occur after an abc corrective rally. The corrective rally may take a couple of days to unfold.
BTCUSD – The crypto market has been hit hard this week, and so far BTCUSD is down roughly 65% from its record high. Generally speaking, during a BTC bear market BTC can decline anywhere from 80%-90%, therefore the downside target is set at the $13-$15k level. However, this bear market is slightly different, there are institutional funds in play, which may limit the downside potential. There are also a number of trend lines providing crucial support at the 20k area.
The BTC 2 year MA multiplier range has also been broken to the downside. These periods do not generally last long, and can be considered a accumulation phase. A move back above the 2 year moving average is the sign we will need that a bull market has resumed. We are confident in the long term potential for cryptos, and this will set up huge opportunities once the market bottoms.
Friday 10th June
The GBPUSD is still on our watchlist for a long trade setup, however I have accounted for another low in the price action to complete an abc corrective decline. This aligns with another push to the upside on the DXY.
The EURCHF is back on the watchlist for a long trade setup. For those who are fairly new to Elliott wave theory this chart may seem slightly daunting. However, the main concept is to understand the ABC sideways correction, the subwave count is 5-3-5 and the EURCHF has began a new 5 wave bullish move to the upside. Therefore, I am watching for a smaller a-b-c correction to complete a wave (ii) pull back before considering going long. If this count is correct, the next move is going to be a large wave 3 bullish move to the upside. Wave 3 is generally the longest and most powerful in the market. Sit tight for the time being.
Wednesday 8th June 2022
The GBPUSD is on the radar for a long trade setup with our targets set at 1.2950-1.3260. The rally from the low can be classed as a leading diagonal structure, and the recent decline appears to be in 3 waves labelled a-b-c. Therefore we can assume another 5 wave rally will unfold, which aligns with a weaker DXY over the coming weeks. There is also a technical inverse head and shoulders formation in play, which is a bullish signal. A trade setup will be posted later today on the pair.
Frustrating here on the USDCHF, after a loss last week I lost confidence in the position and closed early. Controlling emotions and sticking to a trading plan is the hard part after identifying an opportunity. This would have been great trade. I will let the price action unfold before looking at another position on the USDCHF.
Monday 6th June
The AUDJPY is potentially ready for a short, I am watching for confirmation of a breakdown from the rising channel structure. This is consistent with a breakdown from a rising channel structure on the AUDUSD. This is clearly a big call, and my assumption is based on the B wave triangle formation prior to the rally to the upside. A move lower on the AUDJPY would indicate a risk-off market sentiment which would also indicate lower equity prices. Once a breakdown occurs, we will look to target the 91 support level initially.
Tuesday 30th May 2022
Picking bottoms is a tough job, especially in the crypto market which is extremely volatile. The first chart below suggests BTC is approaching a bottom but has some more room on the downside which would take the price action into the 20k area. The weekly RSI is yet to reverse but has been a strong indicator of reversals and bottoms in the market previously.
The bullish Elliott wave count on BTCUSD is still valid and the rising pitchfork is providing support, however, the wave C of the ABC decline appears to be slightly short compared to the initial wave A. There is a chance of 1 more low to come in the crypto market which would align with the first chart above. However, I think it depends largely on the direction of the DXY. IF the DXY has topped and begins to sell-off over the next couple of weeks there is a high probability of a bottom in the crypto market as well as the stock market.
Taking a look at the Elliott wave count there has been a clear ABC decline with a sub-wave count of 5-3-5. So generally speaking this would indicate the end of a bearish correction. However, due to the triangle structure in the recent price action, I am assuming the AUDJPY is trading inside a wave c of wave B in a counter-trend rally. This indicates that we are yet to have a final wave C decline which should be similar in length to wave A. The 3 wave decline was potentially just the first wave A of an ABC correction. Triangle structures can only occur in wave B or wave 4, so this indicates the JPY cross pairs are going to have another move lower. This is similar across all JPY cross pairs. If the JPY strengthens it would indicate a strong risk-off move in the market in the near future.
Tuesday 24th May 2022
After a very close call on the GBPAUD, the position is looking much better. The wave e low has not taken out the wave c low which indicates a bullish triangle structure. In hindsight I closed out our long positions on the EURUSD and AUDUSD a day too early. However, there will be other opportunities to buy back in at a later stage.
The USDCHF appears to have completed an initial 5 wave decline, so I am watching for a long trade setup to trade the corrective counter-trend rally. The USDJPY also aligns with this setup. Other pairs like the AUDUSD, EURUSD and GBPUSD appear to be moving in the favour of the USD so we may see a corrective move higher on the DXY over the next couple of days.
Monday 16th May 2022
I am going to put a brave call out there and say the bottom is in for cryptocurrencies. If you watched the webinar I previously recorded a month ago I suggested that one more low is a possibility to set up an expanding flat scenario. This appears to have taken place as the wave B rally set up a higher high than the end of wave 3, and the C wave correction has created a lower low than the wave A corrective decline. The bullish invalidation level is at $13,523, which is the wave 1 top. The rising channel structure is still in play, and we will remain in the bullish camp until a breakdown occurs. Looking at the stock market, the US market should recover this week based on a possible completed ABC corrective decline. We are also watching for a rollover on the DXY or at least a correction.
The USDCHF is still trading higher inside a rising channel structure. There is yet to be a wave (iv) pull back to set up the next buying opportunity. We may also consider a short term sell once a topping formation has occurred.
Wednesday 11th May
The USDCHF is yet to setup a 4th wave corrective pull back, the pair is still trading inside a bullish 3rd wave which can take some time to complete. The 3rd wave is generally the longest and most aggressive, which is what is taking place at the moment. Once a 4th wave corrective pull back occurs we can look for another long trade opportunity.
The EURCHF is tracking well, nothing fresh to report on this one apart from the possibility of increasing our target zone to the 1.0800 region.
Monday 9th May 2022
Cryptos are still sliding to the downside and the running or expanding flat scenario appears to be unfolding. If it is an expanding flat the low will surpass the A wave low at $28,900 USD. Whilst this is hurting some of my crypto portfolio, I do see this as a great long term opportunity to enter into a number of ALT coins over the coming weeks. I would recommend keeping some cash on the side ready to deploy when the time is right.
The AUDJPY is trading inside a corrective rally. We can count an initial 5 wave decline which is labelled wave A, there has been a possible a-b-c corrective rally, OR there is yet to be one final high to complete the c wave in the corrective rally. I am focusing heavily on this set-up this week as there should be 300+ pips up for grabs if it plays out to the downside.
The EURCHF is ticking along nicely, we are sitting tight on the position and will possibly look to buy into any ABC corrective declines. I am well and truly kicking myself for closing the USDCHF too early, so we will let this one run over the next week and hopefully reach the end target zone. SL is set to break even so we have no risk on this position.
Wednesday 4th April
The USDCHF is still moving higher, however I am expecting limited upside over the next couple of days. The wave count suggest the USDCHF is trading inside wave 3 of a bullish move tot he upside. Once a 4th wave corrective pull back occurs we can look to reload long positions for the final 5th wave bullish rally.
The AUDJPY is still trading inside a corrective rally, therefore we are looking for a move into the 94.50 resistance zone before considering going short on the pair. The blue abc wave count is my favoured scenario. In the short term the AUD may strengthen due to the interest rate hike from the RBA yesterday. The RBA increased rates by 0.25% which was larger than what the market was expecting.
The EURAUD has rallied higher in 3 waves, therefore this can be labelled as an initial a-b-c counter rally. This is the opposite to the AUDJPY. Once the EURAUD has declined in 3 waves we may look to go long on the pair for a final C wave rally to the upside.
Our buy position on the EURCHF is beginning to move higher. We are expecting the EURCHF to break above the neck line of the inverse head and shoulders formation taking us into the 1.0500 resistance zone initially. Sit tight on this position for the time being.
Saturday 30th April
The AUDJPY has turned sharply lower during Fridays trading session along side global equities. We are looking for short positions on Monday as the corrective rally appears to have completed at our TP level. The AUDJPY should set up another 5 wave decline which will complete a larger ABC corrective decline with a sub wave count of 5-3-5.
Wednesday 27th April
Risk assets are in decline across the board, most likely due to the fears of aggressive rate hikes over the coming months. From an Elliott wave perspective, we are now tracking another decline on BTCUSD as the rally to the upside appears to be in 3 waves, with a B wave triangle formation. We will be looking for buying opportunities once the 5th wave decline completes around the 32-28k area. Long term we are bullish, however be aware of another short term dip in the market.
The USDCHF is still moving higher and should be approaching the end of wave (iii). We are waiting for a corrective pullback on the market to set up the next buying opportunity. Once wave (iv) is complete we will look to go long in the market with targets set at the 0.99 resistance zone. The wave (iv) low can not overlap the wave (i) top, which will be the new bullish invalidation level.
The AUDJPY is close to completing a 5 wave initial decline. After a 5 wave decline there should be a minimum 3 wave corrective rally. The big trade will be the C wave decline which we will be looking to trade. I may look to take a short term buy position over the next day or two.
Monday 25th April
The USDCHF is continuing its move to the upside which aligns with our EURCHF long position. We closed out our initial positions here with a very good profit, however I will be looking for opportunities to buy back into this trend over the next week.
The AUDJPY has possibly reached a top in a major trend cycle as we can see 2 different triangle formations. The first larger triangle was possibly the 4th wave of a major market cycle, and the smaller triangle at the top of the trend was possibly the 4th wave of the 5th wave to the upside. We are actively looking for short trades on this pair over the next couple of days. There has also been a weekly pin bar formation which generally indicates a change in trend due to the selling pressure.
Tuesday 19th April
No significant change on the EURCHF, we are still expecting a large move to the upside which would be a very healthy payday! We have one active position and a second entry ready to go. We are viewing any dips over the next 24-48 hours as buying opportunities.
Thursday 14th April 2022
Very close call on the EURCHF with 5 pips left in the SL, but the position is looking much better this morning. The move higher is looking rather impulsive which is a great sign. We will watch for any corrective dips to buy into at lower levels. The USDCHF is tracking well and if the Elliott wave count is correct – it should pick up some momentum over the next 24 hours.
PAYPAL – We have been holding our long leverage trade for a couple of weeks and the stock price action has declined into the 61% FIB retracement level. Technically speaking this is still suggesting a move to the upside due to the bullish 5 wave sequence to the upside followed by an A-B-C correction. We can look to build a second position on the stock at the 112 resistance level.
BABA – Alibaba has continued to the downside after we purchase the stock outright. However, we are looking for a long trade leverage setup over the next couple of weeks. There appears to have been a completed major market cycle decline, labelled A-B-C. There was a large extension in wave C.
On the 15 minute time frame, the price action looks relatively similar to PAYPAL. There has been a 5 wave sequence to the upside followed by an a-b-c corrective decline. The triangle formation also tells us its an a-b-c decline as triangle formations can only occur in wave 4 or wave b. We will be looking to go long on the stock with a leverage trade at the 117 high.
Saturday 9th April
If this is correct we are all set on a hell of a trade! We need the USDCHF to clear 0.9378 and 0.9463 over the next week. As the market is possibly moving into wave iii, it should move quickly to the upside. Wave iii is generally the longest and most aggressive. There could be another opportunity to buy into this pair next week once a key level is breached.
The EURAUD is in a major oversold condition on the MACD Daily chart, we are expecting a technical bounce on the EURAUD next week as the support level has been used on previous occasions as a reversal zone. This also supports downside on the AUDUSD after a corrective rally.
Wednesday 6th April 2022
If you look at Elliott wave theory in a text book the NZDCAD looks near identical. The NZDCAD has possibly finished a bear market correction in 3 waves and has possibly set up the first impulsive wave to the upside. We are looking to go long at 0.8783 with a long term target above 0.9323. I will be posting a live trade once it is ready to go
The USDCHF is finally moving to the upside, we will be looking to move our SL to breakeven once the pair breaks the first resistance zone. IF the Elliott wave complex B wave triangle is correct, the price action should be heading towards the 0.9650 level over the next couple of weeks. Just need to sit tight for the time being.
The EURCHF has possibly bottomed after a 3 wave corrective decline. Our long entry position is at 1.0243 and should continue towards the 1.0522 resistance target. Ideally this should move along side the USDCHF. Our stop loss is set below the most recent swing low position so we are all set for our entry to be activated.
Saturday 2nd April (Stocks & Crypto)
Well held here on the GDX, the US stock/ETF is currently trading +22% from our initial entry point, this is also similar on the ASX version. The clear bull flag breakout is looking great for a continuation to the upside. There will be a reaction of some sort around the 47 resistance level, however over the longer term we are expecting a move into 60.
PAYPAL update. Please check the trade on PayPal for the longer term analysis. On the 1 hour chart, I can count a clear 5 wave bullish rally to the upside, we can now expect an abc corrective decline into the 112 support zone before another 5 wave bullish rally. This is ticking along nicely and we may have the opportunity to add a second position with a tighter stop loss next week.
Morning team, outside of FX trading I also have a crypto portfolio and have provided some charts on the coins I like the look of over the longer term. Firstly BNB, I have been accumulating BNB on the technical breakout around $350 USD and I am expecting a rise to the $500 resistance over the next week or so. I will want to see how BNB reacts around the 500 resistance as technically speaking this will be a head and shoulders formation (bearish). However, if the overall market remains bullish I doubt this will play out.
ADA – ADA has broken out of a long term negative trending channel formation, which alone suggests a change in trend. The 1 support zone can be used as an accumulation zone on this one. I have highlighted a couple of key levels on the charts where a reaction may occur.
VET – I posted this chart on VET in the crypto chat a couple of weeks back when VET was trading at roughly 0.058. The price action is now trading at 0.08 and appears to be running higher. From an Elliott wave perspective the coin appears to have completed a long term ABC corrective decline, finishing with an ending diagonal formation.
Tuesday 22nd March
The USDCHF is retesting the top of the triangle formation, our buy zone is the 0.9490 resistance level. For us to consider going long we would need to see a move higher as soon as possible. Any breakdown into the triangle will raise a red flag on the bullish scenario. Interestingly, this aligns with a move higher on the USDCAD, DXY and a short term move lower on the EURUSD.
XRP appears too have broken out of the triangle formation and we are just in a waiting game for the time being. Both positions are protected with the SL at breakeven. Our first target zone is the 0.9000 resistance level.
Friday 18th March
Thursday 17th March
The USDCHF has made a breakout to the upside of the triangle formation. We are looking for a continuation to the upside on this pair. Safe-haven currencies are down, especially the JPY due to potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. This is creating a risk-on sentiment in the FX market. The initial invasion has taken place, the likely hood of the war escalating to other nations is relatively slim as there will be no “winner” in a larger war involving other nations. We are hoping for a de-escalation, which would put the CHF and JPY in a position of weakness moving forward.
XRP is tracking well so far and the bullish count is very much intact. Keep a close eye on the rising trend line support on the 1-hour chart, any breakdown from there could indicate a deeper correction – for now, we are sitting tight on the long trades.
Thursday 10th March
The NZDJPY bearish invalidation level is set at 79.58, any new high above this level will suggest the bullish trend remains intact. We are still waiting for a breakdown from the rising trend line support. Technically speaking this is ticking the box for a short trade soon. As we are already on the AUDJPY, we will be looking to possibly add another position from a higher level due to the counter-trend rally overnight.
The USDCHF is still on our watch list for a long trade setup. Price is continuing to compress inside the triangle formation and will explode out of the structure soon. Our buy zone is set at 0.9340. I’ll keep you posted once we activate a trade.
Wednesday 9th March
The NZDJPY has reached a major resistance zone at 79.50. This level has provided a number of selling opportunities previously and this could be another one. Looking at the NZDJPY on the shorter-term time frame we can now count 5 waves down from the peak which tends to be the early signs of a reversal. We are watching for a breakdown from the rising trend line support, our short position can go into the market at 78.54. I will have a trade set up live once the breakdown occurs.
The NZDUSD daily chart is also indicating a major rejection from a key negative trend line resistance, which also aligns with the 61% FIB retracement zone and the 200 day MA. Based on both charts indicating possible reversal opportunities against the NZD we are considering a short trade on either the NZDJPY or the NZDUSD.
Monday 7th March
Cryptos are consolidating at the moment with both BTCUSD and ETHUSD trading inside pennant formations. There are both bullish and bearish cases for the next. On one hand, the conflict in Europe is creating a risk-off environment for all risk assets, including cryptos, and we have seen a lot of selling pressure over the past two weeks as investors are most likely reducing exposure to equities and cryptos. On the other hand, the sanctions placed on Russian banks and high net worth individuals may also increase volume moving into the decentralized space. War, conflict and political tensions all reduce trust for the government and central banks, which may also lead individuals to move deeper into cryptocurrency. We are already long on XRP, we are waiting for other opportunities to open up over the coming weeks. There will be a time to buy some assets at a major discount!
Friday 4th March
The EURAUD has broken a major support zone on the weekly time frame. This indicates the AUD may continue to strengthen over the coming months. There is a large head and shoulders formation in play here, once a retest of the support zone occurs we may look to enter a short position.
XRP has moved to the upside as expected, we are now waiting for the next move higher. Anyone looking to add another position to XRP can use the 0.8040 resistance as a BUY STOP level.
Friday 25th February
Despite the conflict happening across Europe, risk currencies have not seen the downside pressure I was expecting. The AUD, CAD and NZD have all held up against the safe haven currencies. There is still a chance of a breakdown here on the NZDUSD if the DXY continues to pick up some momentum.
The USDCHF is still trading inside a long term triangle and we are expecting a breakout any day now. We are looking to buy any breakout above 0.9339 over the coming days, expecting a move towards 0.9700 initially.
Monday 21st February
The CADJPY and the AUDJPY both appear to be setting up a bearish move, which also aligns with the USDJPY analysis. Very close call on the AUDPY with just 1 pip in the trade. We will sit tight on the AUDJPY as the technicals and fundamentals still support a move lower.
Tuesday 15th February
The AUDJPY is trading inside a contracting triangle formation but looks incomplete. Therefore we are watching for a move towards the 80 support level before considering going long in the market. If the AUDJPY turns south it will indicate a risk off market sentiment as the JPY will strengthen across the board.
The USDCHF is still trading inside a contracting triangle structure and eventually the structure will provide a breakout play. We are leaning to a bullish move towards the 0.9800 resistance zone before another deep decline. Triangles can only occur in wave b or wave 4 in Elliott wave theory. We will be looking to go long above the bullish high only.
Tuesday 8th February
Ripple came VERY close to invalidating the bullish Elliott wave count at 0.5060. The price action has setup a higher low and is surging to the upside. We can count a clear 5 wave rally to the upside followed by a very long 3 wave corrective decline. We are still hodling our bag of XRP in the Trading Floor and will wait for a corrective pull back to leverage a long trade setup. This is still early days, however the higher low is possibly providing a bullish setup.
2nd February 2022
Markets are in recovery mode with the US stock market taking a strong bounce on support. Due to the risk-on sentiment, the JPY is declining across the board and I am considering a long trade opportunity here on the NZDJPY. There is a bullish divergence on the daily time frame, and the bearish head and shoulders structure is possibly complete.
Friday 21st January
VERY close call here in the AUDJPY but we should now be in the clear. Sit tight on this position for the time being. If we hit the 79,82 target it will be a huge payday on the double position.
Monday 17th January
There is a possible buying opportunity on ADA with a strong bounce at the $1 support zone. I will keep you posted if we look to purchase this coin over the coming days.
Friday 14th January
The AUDJPY has possibly setup a lower high inside a potential triangle formation. Keeping our eyes on the rising channel structure for any breakdown play.
Thursday 23rd December
The USDCHF is finally moving south after a number of attempts. Once the 0.9160 support is broken it should open the doors for a much deeper correction. Our targets remain at the 0.8930 support level.
Monday 20th December
There is still downside pressure on BTCUSD along with the majority of risk-on assets. The break of the rising trend line support indicates a change in trend so we are watching for a move into the 40,000 support. The MACD and RSI are showing some signs that a bottom is near however it is far too early to call just yet.
Thursday 9th December
The AUDNZD is tracking well so far with both of our open positions. Our initial target is at 1.08 however there is the potential for this to run a lot higher. From an Elliott wave perspective, there has been a completion of a 3 wave correction which began back in September 2020. For this bullish scenario to hold any weight we really need the 1.06 resistance taken out. Until this level is taken out there can still be a bearish move. A new high above this level will indicate a much larger rally is unfolding. The rally from March-September 2020 is in a clear 5 wave impulsive rally so, in theory, a similar structure should now occur. Time to sit tight and see how this plays out over the next couple of days.
The USDCHF is starting to move south, we need to see some follow-through over the next day or two. Our second entry is not too far away which should help the profits on the way down. The USDCAD is also moving lower as expected which is indicating USD weakness across the board.
Monday 6th December
We are watching for a bounce higher on the USDCHF for a shorting opportunity. This appears to be a bearish pennant structure after creating a fake breakout above the structure last week.
There was a large pullback across the crypto market over the weekend, possibly a decline to wipe out leveraged positions which tends to occur before a major leg higher. The XRP bullish count is still valid until the 0.51 support is taken out which is the invalidation point. We are watching for a long trade set-up, ideally once the declining trend line is broken to the upside.
Friday 3rd December
The VIX (volatility index) has surged higher during the risk-off market move over the past week, however, it has reached a major resistance zone. Technically the VIX should decline from here which would provide some relief for risk assets. If the VIX declines from resistance it could lead to a recovery across stocks and JPY pairs.
Tuesday 23rd November
The USDCHF is trading inside a pennant formation and a breakout, either way, will occur over the next couple of trading sessions. This is on our watch list for a trading opportunity.
BTC is trading inside a rising channel structure. The pullback in the market is still in favour of the bulls until the rising trendline support is taken out. If the channel structure is broken to the downside there is a higher probability of a much deeper correction.
Tuesday 16th November
GDX is edging higher alongside gold prices. We are expecting this to be a long term play over the coming months. Once a breakout above the bull flag formation occurs we can sit back and relax on this position.
GBPUSD – The GBPUSD is approaching the lower end of the declining channel structure. No set up here just yet, momentum is still in the bearish direction.
Monday 8th November
XRP is tracking well, our SL is at breakeven so we need to see a bullish continuation to the upside. 1.3892 is our first target, however, if this level is taken out there should be a large impulsive move to the upside. We will see how it plays out this week, if 1.3890 is broken 1.7 will be our next target.
Thursday 21st October
The NZDUSD is possibly setting up a very bullish outlook, but this would require a major devaluation of the USD. Taking a look across the board, there are a number of central banks ahead of the FED in their policy outlook. The UK, NZ and CAD all appear to be closer to raising interest rates so bets are growing that these central banks will shoot first. This would lead to strengthening across all pairs against the USD and will play into the DXY bearish bias. The NZD, AUD and CAD are all in high demand due to the risk on market sentiment and bullish commodity market. The JPY has been the worst performer of the week indicating investors are risk-on.
Monday 18th October
We have been tracking the AUDNZD for another long trade opportunity. It appears as though it has finished its first 5 wave sequence to the upside after completing a longer-term ABC corrective structure. We are expecting a large move to the upside over the coming weeks, just a matter of timing the long trade correctly. There is a possibility of a slightly deeper correction in the short term. I will keep you posted once this set-up is ready to go.
Wednesday 6th October
The AUDJPY is finally moving to the upside and the NZDJPY is also setting up a bullish picture. There is a nice inverted head and shoulders formation followed by a retest of the broken bull flag structure. With the JPY pairs setting up a bullish move to the upside, we can expect the stock market to take a technical bounce. This suggests the market could stabilise over the coming days. JPY weakness generally indicates a risk-on environment, resulting in risk assets performing well, from crypto through to stocks.
Friday 1st October
The AUDJPY rallied as expected and would have hit our TP set last week. I am looking to reload on this position today, but only if the market breaks the 80.90 resistance. There is a clear 5 wave rally and a possible ABC correction in play, which indicates a bullish trend. I will keep you posted once a trade set-up is ready to go.
Tuesday 28th September
The AUDNZD is breaking out of a falling wedge structure which suggests a bullish reversal opportunity could be in play. This is a trade setup we are looking to buy into later this afternoon. The NZDCAD would have been a great trade, just unfortunate we were stopped out at breakeven. NZD weakness is coming into the market as expected.
Tuesday 21st September
We have been watching the NZD for a reversal opportunity and the AUDNZD is finally picking up some momentum. Taking a look at the NZDCAD there is also a possible shorting opportunity, which suggests NZD weakness could be coming into the market. The AUDNZD has set up a large 3 wave decline, labelled ABC. Once a breakout from the falling wedge occurs we will be looking to go long for a swing trade. This could provide significant upside over the next couple of weeks with targets above the wave 1 top.
Monday 13th September
The NZDUSD has set up a technical pattern called “dark cloud cover” on the weekly charts. This is a bearish reversal pattern. Price action opens above the close on the candle previous but closes lower. This has worked fairly well at spotting reversal opportunities on the NZDUSD previously. This is technically setting up a short trade opportunity for the week ahead. I will keep you posted once we look to enter the trade.
NZDUSD 4 Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart has set up a lower high which indicates a change in trend. There is also a possible 3 wave correction – bearish.
Monday 6th September
The USDCHF is back down to the 0.9118 support. Technically this still ticks the box for an inverted head and shoulders structure – suggesting a move to the upside. Obviously, the DXY in decline is not helping this pair, however, due to the risk on market sentiment, the CHF should devalue due to the decreased demand for the safe-haven currencies.
Friday 3rd September 2021
RIPPLE – Potential breakout here on ripple (XRP). The inverted head and shoulders structure played out as expected from earlier in the week. Cryptos tend to have a positive run over the weekends so let’s see if it can crack the 1.3830 resistance. If so it should open the doors for a move towards 1.7080.
DOGECOIN – similar set up here to Ripple. The inverted head and shoulders structure played out from earlier in the week. Doge appears to have also broken a bull flag structure. We are bullish on Doge whilst it trades above the wedge structure.
Wednesday 1st September
The USDCHF has been range-trading for a week or so, but it ticks the box for a long trade. The inverted head and shoulders structure indicates a potential move to the upside. Also, keep an eye on a breakout of the pennant structure to the upside.
Monday 30th August 2021
XRP (Ripple) is looking rather bullish from a technical perspective. An inverted head and shoulders structure is setting up alongside a bull flag structure. We can see the recent correction is in three waves labelled a-b-c, which also indicates a move to the upside. There is a really nice risk v reward on this set-up as we can expect XRP to break the 1.400 highs. over the coming weeks.
Looking at JPY crosses, they all look set for a bullish run higher. The declining channel formation on the NZDJPY looks set to break to the upside, which would suggest another risk-on move in the market is around the corner. We will be waiting for any pullbacks on JPY pairs to possibly go long. Ideally, we would like to go long on the AUDJPY or NZDJPY. First, there needs to be a breakout above the negative trend line.
Wednesday 25th August
The EURJPY is testing a negative trend line resistance. A break above here will give us the green light to go long towards the 130.60 resistance initially. The JPY has been in low demand throughout the early stages of the week. We are set up on the GBPJPY, but keep a close eye on this pair also.
Tuesday 17th August
The GBPUSD is trading inside a possible bull flag structure. This would indicate DXY weakness over the coming week. We will only look to trade this if there is a breakout to the upside of the flag structure. The stop loss would need to go at the swing low of 1.3788. I will keep you posted.
Thursday 12th August 2021
GBPUSD had a nice bounce near the 1.38 support. There is a possible inverted head and shoulders structure in play, but we will wait for a break above the negative trendline resistance. That will indicate a large rally to the upside is on the cards.
Most charts are indicating DXY weakness could take place over the next couple of weeks – USDCAD, EURUSD and the NZDUSD.
Monday 9th August 2021
The GBPUSD is tracking okay so far. We need to see an acceleration to the downside. Technically the 1.3790 support could set up an inverse head and shoulders formation. Keep in mind the UK is recovering from the Covid-19 virus quicker than other parts of the world and the BoE is also looking at bond tapering soon. So the GBP is actually rather bullish at the moment. Once the GBPUSD reaches 1.3850 we will look to move the SL to breakeven.
Tuesday 3rd August 2021
The AUDNZD is approaching a fairly important trend line support. This level has provided a reversal opportunity, however, due to the RBA statement today it is too early to call. The RBA is expected to take a dovish tone due to the Covid-19 outbreaks. We will see how this plays out initially and may enter on the LONG side if the opportunity presents itself. The big move will take place if the RBA actually takes a more positive tone than the market is expecting.
Tuesday 13th July 2021
The AUDJPY could have bottomed as the market has set up a bullish divergence on the RSI which has predicted reversal opportunities previously. We are on the AUDNZD for a long trade so I will not post a trade set-up on the AUDJPY, but this looks fairly nice and ticks the boxes to buy into.
Finally a breakout above the falling channel structure for the AUDNZD. Once the retest has completed there is another opportunity to go long in the market.
Friday 9th July 2021
AUDNZD analysis is still valid. I understand some of you who trade with Fusion markets were stopped out due to the spread. Our trade on Focus is still active which is frustrating. To re-enter the position wait for a breakout above the negative trend channel with the SL below the most recent swing low.
Thursday 8th July 2021
EURGBP is not playing ball at the moment, but the bull flag structure is still intact. Hopefully, we see a break above the 0.8590 resistance over the coming sessions.
Tuesday 6th July 2021
The GBPUSD has possibly set up a bullish breakout. We have a pretty full portfolio at the moment, once we close down a trade this could be an option to go long towards the 1.4000 resistance.
The AUDNZD is still trending lower inside a possible bull flag structure. Once the market breaks the 1.0727 resistance we can look to enter another position. Hopefully, this comes today with the RBA interest rate decision and statement. The structure is overlapping and very messy which does suggest a correction rather than a trend.
Friday 2nd July 2021
The AUDNZD trade is still valid. We can count a five-wave rise which is a bullish sequence and a possible abc correction. There is also an inverted head and shoulders formation in play. Hopefully we see some upside throughout next week.
Monday 21st June 2021
AUDCAD is setting up a possible head and shoulders formation. There has been a falling wedge breakout, which looks very similar to the breakout previous. To enter the trade I would like to see a move above 0.9400.
The AUDNZD is on our watchlist for a long opportunity. There is a possible triangle formation, and based on the impulsive rally from March 2020-September 2020 and the current corrective structure, we favour a move to the upside. A breakout above 1.0900 will be a key buy zone.
EURGBP – We are tracking a possible bull flag structure on the EURGBP which could move towards the 0.8735 resistance initially. I will keep you posted on any active trade .
Thursday 3rd June 2021
AUDCAD is trading down the negative trend line support. We will leave things for the time being.
Tuesday 1st June 2021
The RBA provides the next interest rate decision and statement today at 14:30. The AUDCAD has a falling wedge structure leading into a key support zone at the 61% FIB retracement. It is too early to buy the pair, however, we will be looking for any breakout post announcement. Interestingly, the NZDCAD has the same structure prior to the RBNZ last week and broke out to the upside. We will be looking to position prior to the 14:30 announcement in the trading floor.
Wednesday 26th May 2021
The AUDNZD has broken down leading into the RBNZ interest rate decision and statement later this afternoon. We will be looking to move our SL to open prior to the event.
Wednesday 19th May 2021
NZDUSD is looking very similar to the AUDUSD with a possible head and shoulders formation in play. With this set up we would like to see a break below the rising trend line support before considering the trade.
Sunday 16th May 2021
I posted a set up on Tesla a few weeks back and it has been unfolding nicely over the past couple of weeks. To be honest, I am never a fan of shorting a stock as it is risky business. What we will now wait for is the correction to end around the 400-450 zone. This will provide a great entry to buy the stock outright, and possibly execute a leveraged position. Tesla appears to be leading the market, especially the NASDAQ.
Friday 30th April 2021
Crude Oil – We were stopped out this week going short on crude oil, however, I am still in the camp of seeing further downside here. The bear flag structure is still in play. The USDCAD is still under pressure and is approaching a major support zone. Once the USDCAD bottoms there could be a large reversal meaning a stronger USDCAD and weaker oil prices. We will remain on the sidelines for the time being.
Wednesday 28th April 2021
The USDCHF is in an interesting area. The pair have returned to the base of a rising channel formation. Technically this could be a nice entry for a buy position, however, we are long on the USDJPY and short on the AUDUSD therefore it may not be wise to go long here as well. Let’s track this to see how it unfolds.
Tuesday 27th April 2021
JPY is weakening across the board leading into the BoJ interest rate decision and statement at 1pm this afternoon. Interestingly, the AUDJPY is setting up a possible pennant formation inside a large rising wedge structure. A breakout to the upside would suggest a move towards the 86 resistance is on the cards. However, keep in mind the US stock market is becoming very toppy, therefore there is a risk of a large pullback soon which would push strength back into the JPY. In the short term, JPY weakness should continue to play out.
Monday 26th April 2021
The CADJPY is trading beneath a negative trend line resistance. The US stock market looks bullish, therefore we may see a risk-on sentiment meaning a weaker JPY. Watch out for any possible breakout to the upside here. Targets can be found at 87.10-87.50 initially.
Friday 23rd March 2021
TESLA is showing a potential bearish set up here. The overlapping nature of the recent structure suggests the stock price is in an ABC correction meaning price can revisit the 500-400 lows.
Wednesday 21st April 2021
The VIX has broken to the upside of the falling wedge structure as highlighted last week. This has created a risk-off sentiment in the market (in the short term), traders have moved into safe-haven currencies like the USD and JPY with global equities declining overnight.
Tuesday 13th April 2021
AUDCAD – Firstly, we are long already on the AUDJPY and AUDUSD so I wouldn’t recommend going long here just yet. Ideally, we would like to see a breakout above 0.9590 before committing to another AUD long trade. From a technical perspective, there is an inverted head and shoulders formation in play so we can use the 1.618 fib extension as a target if there is a breakout at 0.9740.
Friday 9th April 2021
Taking a look at the AUDJPY on the shorter term, it appears as though a bullish set up is forming. We will be looking to build into a long position once the 83.85 resistance is taken out, we will also be looking to add to the position once the 84.30 resistance is broken.
Thursday 8th April 2021
The AUDJPY is currently trading on a key trendline support. Looking at the formation at the top of this trend, there is possibly a head and shoulders formation in play. However it is too early to call a top in place. Equities are looking VERY high, and we are expecting a large correction over the coming weeks. We can not rule out a final push higher on the AUDJPY into the wedge formation before the breakdown.
We decided not to go in for a long position on Tesla, purely due to the current formation on the price action. This overlapping structure can be considered a correction rather than impulsive. If this is a corrective structure it would suggest Tesla could be heading lower. Tesla is possibly ahead of the rest of the tech stocks, we are expecting a final push higher on the NASDAQ before a larger correction.
Thursday 1st April 2021
We have been watching Tesla for buying opportunities as the stock dropped roughly 40% from its most recent high. This appears to be huge discount and buyers may look to step back into the market. The question is has the correction finished. The breakout on the tech NASDAQ looks bullish from a technical perspective. Tesla has also broken out of a possible bull flag structure after bouncing on a key trend line support.
Friday 26th March 2021
GBPUSD – The pair broke down from the rising trend line support, however, we are yet to see a confirmation on the breakdown. I would like to see a retest and rejection. IF the GBPUSD breaks back above the trend line we can look for long opportunities in the market.
Wednesday 24th March 2021
EURNZD – The pair had a huge run higher breaking out of the falling wedge formation. VERY gutted I missed the trade on this one, well done to those who traded the pair on their own from the previous analysis. The EURNZD could be approaching a key resistance at 1.7000
Thursday 18th March 2021
The AUDCAD is testing a negative trend line resistance. The overall trend is bullish, therefore once a breakout occurs we may see a continuation to the upside. We are waiting for a breakout to potentially go long in the trading floor.
Tuesday 16th March 2021
GBPUSD – If the DXY breaks beneath the bearish level we can expect the GBPUSD to benefit. Technically, there is an inverted head and shoulders formation suggesting we could see a break above the neckline at 1.4000 over the coming weeks.
Monday 15th March 2021
EURNZD – weekly charts have set up a very interesting candlestick formation. There has been three weekly inside bar formations which is VERY rare. I guess this is potentially why the currency pair has been pretty frustrating to trade over the previous weeks. Price is compressing between a very tight range, and we see this being our HOT chart, there could be an explosion on the pair soon. The falling wedge formation suggests price could surge higher once the 1.6670 resistance is taken out.
EURNZD 4 Hour Charts are showing the pair trading at a key resistance zone. There is also a negative trend line resistance coming into play. We will be keeping a close eye on this pair for long opportunity once the falling wedge formation is broken to the upside.
Friday 12th March 2021
The EURNZD is still toying with the idea of a bullish breakout. For this to happen the market would need to turn towards a risk off sentiment (meaning a rally on the DXY). This pair has been very frustrating over the past couple of weeks as the price action has been trading in tight ranges.
Technically, a breakout above the bull flag structure would give the green light to trade towards the 1.6750 resistance zone.