Monday 27th June
The AUDUSD has potentially set up a morning star candlestick formation on the weekly time frame. The morning star candle can indicate a reversal opportunity out of a bearish trend. The Evening star candlestick formation can indicate a reversal from a bullish trend. We are already short the US Dollar on the USDCAD and EURUSD, however, the AUDUSD is also indicating a period of US dollar weakness which supports our positions.
Tuesday 21st June 2022
Similar to the EURUSD, the AUDUSD has possibly set up an a-b-c corrective decline. One of the reasons I am assuming it is a corrective decline is due to the triangle structure in wave b. Although our trade moved back to breakeven, I am looking for a re-entry on this pair this week with a good risk v reward scenario. If the Elliott wave structure is correct, the AUDUSD is about to rally higher to finish the wave C counter trend.
Friday 10th June
The B wave triangle has unfolded as expected. I am still looking for further downside into the 0.7030 support level, once the AUDUSD reaches this zone there is a possible buy trade setup – depending on how the DXY performs. The stop loss can be moved to breakeven now.
Monday 6th June
The AUDUSD has reached a mirror resistance at the 0.7270 level. There was a fake breakdown last week so I will be watching for another opportunity to get into a long USD trade. If we consider going short on the AUDJPY I will not enter this position as well, I will look at pairs like the USDCAD or EURUSD.
Monday 16th May
Similar to the US stock market, the AUDUSD has possibly completed a 5 wave decline, so we can expect an ABC corrective rally at least or a new bullish sequence to the upside. The DXY has been relentlessly rallying over the past couple of months due to inflation and interest rate concerns, so I am cautious to call a top in the DXY just yet. However, the majority of USD pairs appear to favour a move against the USD over the next couple of weeks. I am looking at the AUDUSD and GBPUSD for long trade opportunities today. A rally on the AUDUSD supports or long trade on the S&P500.
Monday 9th May 2022
The AUDUSD is a trade that got away from me, there wasn’t a sizeable corrective rally to sell into on this one for a good entry point. The AUDJPY is lagging behind and I am determined to position well on that pair. The AUDUSD should be heading sub 0.69 over the coming weeks. Technically speaking there is a head and shoulders formation in play which indicates further downside.
Monday 25th April
The AUDUSD turned south aggressively as expected however our short position did not activate. The AUD is running lower along side equities which are looking fragile at the moment. The expectation of larger interest rate hikes is setting into the market and the DXY is continuing to surge to the upside. I prefer the look of the AUDJPY due to the risk v reward ratio, however both are looking attractive for shorts against the AUD.
Wednesday 13th April
The initial 5 wave decline on the AUDUSD moved further than I initially expected, however the price action is now running higher. We need to see the rally move in 3 waves labelled a-b-c to set up a selling opportunity. We have our SELL LIMIT ready to go, however I may look to re-adjust over the next day or two depending on the price action.
Saturday 9th March
There has been a clean 5 wave decline on the AUDUSD, we are expecting a counter trend rally into the 0.7490-0.7540 level next week which could provide a shorting opportunity. There is a similar opposite trade setup on the USDCAD as well. We will see which one provides the best risk v reward ratio.
Tuesday 29th March
We have left the AUDUSD to unfold further due to the AUD rallying across the board. Most likely due to higher commodity prices and signals from the RBA that they will begin unwilling stimulus. Technically speaking, the AUDUSD has reached a double top level and set up a bearish evening star candle stick formation. We can consider going short at the bottom of yesterdays wick low.
Thursday 10th March
Following on from the relationship between gold and the AUDUSD. Gold has reached a major double top and is facing some extreme selling pressure. This is pushing the AUDUSD lower as well. From the peak at 0.7440, we can count a 5 wave decline followed by an ABC corrective rally into the 61% FIB level. This indicates another 5 wave decline should occur. We have just activated a short on the NZDUSD which has a similar set-up to the AUDUSD.
Monday 7th March
The AUD has been rallying higher despite the risk-off market sentiment and stronger DXY, the AUD is generally the currency that suffers losses during a negative environment. The DXY has surged to the upside, and strangely the AUDUSD has also been moving alongside it. The reason is possibly due to rising gold prices. Australia is a global leader in the production of bauxite, iron ore, lithium, gold, silver, and copper. The AUD has been moving in step with gold prices. Gold has already broken to the upside of a major negative trend line resistance, if gold continues moving to the upside it is likely the AUD will breakout from the negative trend line as well. The AUDUSD has set up a bullish divergence on the weekly time frame.
Monday 28th February
The AUD has been a very tricky trade recently as it has not been moving alongside the stock markets and its general risk-off sentiment. There is a possible triangle formation setting up, but the main technical structure we need to be aware of is the negative trend line resistance. For now, we will stay clear of the AUD until a clearer setup appears.
Friday 24th February
The AUDUSD and AUDJPY has did not turn to the downside, slightly confusing and frustrating. Generally the AUD is the main casualty in a risk-off market environment. There is a rising trend line support coming into play on the AUDJPY so there is still a chance of a move lower if that is taken out.
Monday 21st February
We were tracking the AUDUSD for a short trade last week which did not play out as expected. The C wave top is our bearish invalidation point, any move above here takes out the bearish outlook. Personally, I found the move higher on the AUD strange due to the current fundamentals, generally the AUD is hit the hardest during times of political uncertainty, war/conflict. We will keep an eye on this pair this week for another possible shorting opportunity.
Monday 14th February
The AUDUSD appears to have completed a simple ABC corrective rally. The breakdown from the rising channel structure also suggests a change in trend. We are already short on the NZDUSD and are looking to get into the market here on the AUDUSD today. Again, the AUD, NZD and CAD all look vulnerable to a bearish move to the tensions across Europe and expectations of a larger interest rate hike from the FED in March.
Friday 11th February
The AUDUSD moved into the expected resistance zone before facing a sharp reversal. I can count a 3 wave rally, the first wave has a 5 wave structure, second wave has a 3 wave structure and the final wave has a 5 wave structure. If the AUDUSD breaks the rising trend line support this will be classed as a corrective rally, and prices should be heading lower. We have placed a short trade on the NZDUSD which has a very similar setup.
Tuesday 8th February
The AUDUSD is running higher along with other USD pairs. A break above the 0.7160 resistance would indicate a possible move towards 0.7260. It is far too early to call a bottom on the AUDUSD, there needs to be a major 5 wave sequence to the upside, at the moment we can only count wave 1 and 2, or wave a and b of a corrective rally. There is still a strong chance of this turning south especially considering the tensions across Europe. We are sitting on the side lines on this pair and waiting for the price action to unfold further.
Wednesday 2nd February
The RBA interest rate decision/policy statement yesterday surprised the market and the AUD is in a bullish mode. The RBA has agreed to end its quantitative easing program – which reduces the money pumped into the system. A reduction of the money supply tends to strengthen the currency. This is the first step that a central bank will generally take before considering raising interest rates. Therefore, in the short term, the AUD may see further upside. There is a bullish divergence coming into play on the daily time frame.
Monday 31st January
The AUDUSD is trading on a very important support level at .7000. We do not see any trading opportunity here just yet so we need to remain patient and sit tight. Our focus over the next couple of days is metals, especially gold and silver.
Thursday 27th January
The AUDUSD has broken down from the bear flag structure and we are active in a short position now. Our SL is above the most recent swing high at 0.7180, therefore any more above that level will set up a higher high and invalidate our short bias.
Monday 24th January
The AUDUSD looks set for a breakout to the downside of the rising bear flag structure. As highlighted last week, we can count a 5 wave decline from the 0.7310 peak, followed by a corrective rally and a lower high. These are bearish technicals and indicate a move to the downside will occur this week. We are short on the AUDJPY, depending on how the market trades this week I may look to execute a trade here on the AUDUSD as well.
Friday 21st January
The AUDUSD has set up a 5 wave decline followed by a bearish breakdown. Once the 0.7170 support is taken out it should open the doors for a deep correction. The AUD is currently in freefall and we will stick to the AUDJPY for now with our double position.
Monday 17th January
The AUDUSD turned south sharply after setting up a pin bar structure. We shorted previously and was stopped out at breakeven, we will possibly look to get back into this trade once the bear flag structure is broken to the downside. We are still short on the AUDJPY so let’s see how that plays out over the next couple of days first before making a decision on this setup. I prefer the EURUSD for a short at the moment.
Friday 14th January
There is a daily pin bar structure which can indicate a reversal in the market. So again, we need to watch out for any shorting opportunities. This will depend largely on the direction of the DXY.
Monday 10th January
The AUDUSD has broken down from the bear flag structure and is currently sitting in profit. Our SL is set to break even, there is a chance of a pullback to retest the bear flag structure which may take our position out. If this does occur we will look to reload for the next move lower. We will sit tight on this position for now with 0 risk in the market.
Thursday 6th January
The AUDUSD has turned town as expected and is currently tackling the 0.7180 support zone. We should see an acceleration to the downside here and a move towards the 0.700 support. The market is moving into a risk-off sentiment which impacts the AUD the most. Sit tight on this position for the time being.
Tuesday 4th January
The AUDUSD is trading on the key 0.7190 support level. A break beneath this zone will indicate another move to the downside is on the cards. We are watching for possible shorting opportunities either here or on gold. The bearish invalidation level is the most recent swing high at 0.7277, we will be using this level as a potential stop-loss if we enter a short trade.
Monday 13th December
The AUDUSD has broken above two important negative trend lines. The MACD has crossed over and is turning higher, both are bullish reversal signals in the short term. For a continuation to the upside we would need to see the DXY breakdown from the triangle structure. Equities are very much in risk-on and the SP500, NASDAQ and DOW should be heading back into record-high territory which is also helping the AUD strengthen across the board.
Wednesday 8th December
I have not done an update on the AUDUSD for a week or so, I have been waiting for the tag on the 0.7000 support which has now occurred. There has been a strong bounce on the 0.7000 support zone and there appears to be a breakout play to the upside taking place. Once the second trendline has broken to the upside I am watching for a buying opportunity. The commodity-related currencies have been the top performers overnight as investors turned risk on. We will be monitoring the DXY, once a breakdown has occurred this is going to be our long trade setup.
Tuesday 29th November
AUDUSD has broken down from the rising channel structure and appears to be moving towards the 0.700 support. There are no good entry points on the short side just yet so we need to remain patient and wait for the next setup.
Friday 11th November
I haven’t updated the AUDUSD for a while, there is a possible bear flag structure in play. A breakdown would indicate a move towards the 0.7000 support. The bear flag structure is in 3 waves which indicates a corrective rally. This could be a setup for next week depending on how the DXY moves.
Wednesday 6th October 2021
The AUDUSD has been in a corrective decline since March this year. As you can see the AUDUSD is moving towards the bullish breakout level. There has been a number of higher lows which indicates a bullish reversal. Australia is beginning to open up borders which will attract foreign interest in the AUD, furthermore the Australian trade surplus (imports v exports) yesterday indicated a large rise in exports. The supply and demand of a currency are impacted majorly by the imports v exports ratio. If exports outweigh imports it indicates the demand is higher. Australia reported a record trade surplus yesterday of 15.077 billion AUD, driven majorly by rising commodity prices. Therefore, from a fundamental point of view, the AUD is one currency we know is in high demand.
Friday 1st October 2021
The AUDUSD has not made a lower low like the EURUSD or GBPUSD which is the sign of a bullish trend reversal. The 23% FIB retracement is providing support. We see the AUDJPY as a bullish set-up, and the AUDUSD looks fairly similar. However, before considering going long I would like to see a move above the 0.7318 resistance zone.
Tuesday 28th September
The AUDUSD has broken to the upside of a falling channel structure which does indicate a change in trend. Again, it is difficult to go long here as the DXY is close to the invalidation level. Only if the DXY begins to decline can we look to start buying the AUDUSD or EURUSD again.
Thursday 16th September
The AUDUSD has pulled back to the 61% FIB retracement after rejecting the top of the declining channel structure. As we favour a decline in the USD we are watching for a possible breakout play here. The USDCAD is our preferred set-up, but we will be watching the AUDUSD for a breakout as well. If the AUDUSD rallies to the upside it would indicate a risk-on market sentiment, which would support higher equity prices.
Friday 3rd September
The AUDUSD is moving into a resistance zone, I wouldn’t be surprised it there was a break through especially if the DXY continues its downward trend. We are waiting for a pull back on either the AUDUSD or NZDUSD to possibly buy into over the next couple of weeks.
Thursday 2nd September
We are into a fresh month so I thought it would be important to take a look at the longer-term chart, especially as our SL was hit yesterday on the AUDUSD. Last months close was a very bullish or reversal candlestick formation. There is a clear Doji candle that can indicate a change in trend. Technically there is possible a large inverted head and shoulders structure – especially when looking at the NZDUSD, check the chart beneath.
NZDUSD – Monthly Chart – Potential Trading Plan
This pair is setting up a very bullish technical outlook. Especially if you consider the RBNZ who are looking at raising interest rates in the near future. The RBNZ is ahead of other central banks. We can also see a Doji monthly candle followed by a bullish hammer candle and a falling wedge breakout. Again, we can see a clear inverted head and shoulders structure.
NZDUSD 1 Hour Chart
There has been a sharp rise in the NZDUSD, for us to consider going long here we would like to see a corrective decline to buy into. There will be a pullback at some point providing an entry point. It could possibly occur over the next few days due to the NFP in the US. If we can get a long trade in there will be a really good risk V reward on a swing trade opportunity.
Wednesday 1st September
If you check the chart below from last week, this played out as expected. We can now count another 5 wave rally and are expecting a larger correction over the next day or two. The rising wedge structure and the DXY are indicating a pull back on the AUDUSD.
Thursday 26th August 2021
The rally on the AUDUSD is made up of 5 waves, so we are anticipating a possible corrective decline over the next 24 hours. If the AUDUSD sets up a 3 wave correction, similar to the GBPJPY over the past day, we can look to go long at the B wave top. This would also indicate a stronger DXY, we will keep a close eye on this one. Stocks are in a very bullish mode leading into the FED Jackson Hole meeting, therefore the AUD will most likely move with them.
Tuesday 17th August 2021
The AUDUSD is holding support at 0.7318 leading into the RBA minutes release at 11:30 this morning. We don’t see any trading opportunity here just yet unless the pair breaks the negative trend line resistance or breaks down from support. The AUDUSD has been a tricky pair to trade as it is trading inside a range between 0.74-0.73. We will wait to see how this unfolds over the next couple of days.
Monday 9th August 2021
The AUDUSD is moving as expected breaking down from the bear flag structure. Not much to report here, we have moved the SL to breakeven and just need to remain patient. A break back inside the bear flag will invalidate the short position.
Wednesday 28th July 2021
A triangle structure is forming on the AUDUSD, ideally, the pair will break out to the upside which will play into our long trade setup. If there is a breakdown from here we will look to close the position early.
Thursday 22nd July 2021
The AUDUSD is holding the 1.27% fib extension support, which is also the bottom of the pitchfork. Technically this could be a nice entry for a long trade, however, the lockdowns in Australia are of concern from a fundamental perspective. The 15-minute charts are showing a bullish inverted head and shoulders setup (second chart down).
Tuesday 20th July
AUDUSD is trading on the 1.27% extension which is also a declining channel support line. A break down from here will open the doors for a move towards the 0.7150 level. There is not a great risk v reward trade set up here so we need to wait for the currency pair to unfold.
Monday 19th July 2021
The AUDUSD is still trading lower whilst the RSI continues to create a bullish divergence. This will be on our watchlist for a long opportunity, however, we need to see the DXY break lower and the AUDUSD to breakout to the upside of the falling wedge.
Friday 9th July 2021
The Australian lockdowns and demand for USD are pushing the AUDUSD lower. We see the possibility of a final decline to the 0.73-0.72 region. However, I am not interested in shorting, I want to prepare for a long trade opportunity. A bottom should be found soon on this pair.
Tuesday 6th July 2021
It appears as though the correction on the AUDUSD is over. From an Elliott wave perspective, there has now been a 5 wave decline from the B wave top. A move above wave iv would provide a possible entry point. Todays RBA interest rate decision and statement and the FOMC minutes will provide some volatility.
Friday 2nd July 2021
The AUDUSD is almost at a 1 to 1 parity of the A wave. Which means the pair could find support soon. The large correction is potentially almost complete, however, there could be a final push towards the downside due to the US NON-FARM tonight. This would also align with gold. Generally the AUDUSD and gold move in a very similar fashion. We will be waiting for long opportunities over the coming weeks.
Wednesday 23rd June 2021
The AUDUSD bounced from the 78% FIB retracement, however, we are yet to see a five-wave rise which would suggest bulls are back. The structure is only subdivided into 3 waves which says a possible correction. Therefore we have to be aware of a further decline before a recovery. The structure inside the blue circle has not unfolded enough to consider a trade just yet. We will remain on the sidelines for the time being.
Monday 21st June 2021
The longer-term picture is showing the AUDUSD resting on the 78% FIB retracement which is a key support zone. I don’t see any trading opportunity just yet on the pair. We will see how the DXY develops over the coming days.
Tuesday 15th June 2021
Our position on the AUDUSD just missed the activation by 8 pips. We will stay on the sidelines until a clearer direction is formed on the DXY. The triangle is still intact therefore we will be waiting for any breakout play to the upside.
Thursday 10th June 2021
The AUDUSD has no real significant change, the triangle formation is still unfolding. The BUY ZONE remains that the 0.7680 support or on the breakout above the triangle. We will need to sit on our hands for the time being.
Tuesday 8th June 2021
Here is a possible scenario for the AUDUSD. A triangle formation can only occur in wave b or wave 4. Therefore if this triangle is going to play out it suggests further upside once wave d and e completes. We will keep this on the back burner this week and look to buy the AUDUSD at the wave e low.
Monday 7th June 2021
Only one word to describe the AUDUSD and that is a mess. Since mid-April, the AUDUSD has been chopping sideways with fake breakouts to the upside and downside. Economic data has been improving here in Australia, and the July RBA meeting is going to be a crucial data point. The RBA will decide if they will continue with QE (quantitative easing or money printing). If they decide to take their foot off the pedal the AUD could strengthen across the board.
Thursday 3rd June 2021
The AUDUSD has been a pretty tricky pair to trade over recent weeks with no clear direction or trend. The pair appears to be trapped between the 0.78-0.77 range. The economic data points coming from the US over the next couple of days should provide a new trend to buy into.
Monday 24th May 2021
The AUDUSD is testing a very significant trendline and appears to be breaking down. Once a breakdown occurs, we can look to use 0.7600 and 0.7530 as target levels for our short position. From an Elliott wave perspective, the AUDUSD could be trading inside a large corrective structure before the next move higher. The head and shoulders formation highlighted last week also remains valid for further downside.
Tuesday 18th May 2021
The AUDUSD is moving higher based on a weaker USD. The RBA minutes didn’t provide the fuel the AUD needed to surge higher. Due to the USD approaching a major support zone and the AUDUSD approaching the resistance line of 0.7820, there is a possibility of the head and shoulders formation playing out. We will be looking to enter a short trade at 0.7820 later this evening.
Sunday 16th May 2021
The AUDUSD is setting up a couple of bearish structures whilst trading along a rising trend line support. We can also see a head and shoulders formation in play. The H&S formation will remain valid unless the upper trend line resistance is broken at roughly 0.7900. This also aligns with the AUDJPY which is trading inside a large rising wedge structure – see second chart. If the rising wedge structure is broken to the downside the market may see a larger risk off move.
Wednesday 5th May 2021
The AUDUSD is consolidating between a possible bull flag structure. Looking across the board the AUD looks ready to run higher. The RBA has increased their economic projections which should provide a bullish outlook for the AUD. Keep a close eye on any breakout play here.
Tuesday 27th April 2021
The AUDUSD has moved into our target range but didn’t quite reach the 0.7835 resistance. Ideally, I would like to see a large correction from this zone over the coming days, but it will depend on the DXY and the FED statement. I will keep you posted if we look to reenter any position.
Monday 26th April 2021
The AUDUSD has turned bullish with a breakout from a falling wedge structure, similar to the breakout back on the 15th April. Our target remains around the 0.7840 resistance. The longer-term head and shoulders formation could still be on the cards which was highlighted last week. We will need to see how the market reacts around 0.7840 before considering going short here. It will largely depend on how the DXY is behaving.
Friday 23rd April 2021
The AUDUSD has broken down from the smaller head and shoulders formation after rejecting the 0.7760 resistance. The market is at a cross roads with the DXY testing a negative trend line resistance. IF the DXY breaks out to the upside expect further downside on this currency pair, along with EURUSD and the NZDUSD.
Wednesday 21st April 2021
There has been a large technical rejection from 0.7800 on the AUDUSD. This looks like a very clean head and shoulders formation, however, this would suggest a large run higher on the DXY. The AUD has weakened across the board due to the run higher in the VIX (volatility index) which has created a risk-off sentiment.
AUDUSD 1 Hour Charts
There is a possible head and shoulders formation setting up on the shorter-term time frame. A correction towards the 0.7760 resistance could provide a nice entry for a short opportunity. I will keep you posted on any entries into the trade.
Thursday 15th April 2021
I am not one for checking the 5-minute charts however we are on track for a rise towards 0.7755 initially. The AUDUSD could face some resistance here. We can now move our SL to 0.7715 guaranteeing 80 pips profit. Nice work.
Monday 12th April 2021
The AUD is being very stubborn at the moment with the AUDUSD still trading inside the falling wedge structure. No real change here to our analysis, the long scenario is still in play. Once the market breaks out to the upside there is an opportunity to build into the long position further. Until then we will remain patient with our open trade.
Friday 9th April 2021
No real change here so far, we are waiting for a breakout from the falling wedge formation.
Thursday 8th April 2021
The AUDUSD failed to breakout from the negative trend line resistance. We are now waiting for a move towards the 0.7565 support, or a break above 0.7660 before looking to go long in the market again. The 0.7565 support could provide an inverted head and shoulders formation, which is a bullish signal.
Tuesday 6th April 2021
We are back in on the AUDUSD and the market appears to be moving higher off the back of a weaker USD and a risk-on sentiment. The AUD should benefit from risk assets moving higher. We need to be aware of a bull flag structure coming into play, however, there is also a possible bearish head and shoulders formation setting up at the 0.7815 resistance.
Thursday 1st April 2021
The AUDUSD is currently running close to the SL. We will maintain the position for the time being. If there is a breakdown from here it would suggest the DXY will continue higher, we will then turn out attention to the USDCAD.
Tuesday 30th March 2021
The AUDUSD is trading higher from the support zone of 0.7580 which also appears to be a rising trend line. Global equities enjoyed a risk-on move overnight which is providing some strength into the AUD. We will be looking to position on the AUDUSD today as the risk V reward looks appealing.
Friday 26th March 2021
The AUDUSD is trading on a fairly important support level. Ideally, we would like to see the USD move lower to provide a buying opportunity, it is too early to commit to a long position on the AUDUSD just yet.
Wednesday 24th March 2021
The AUDUSD has broken down from the pennant formation as the risk-off sentiment continues. We are waiting to see how the market reacts around the 0.7560 and 0.7450 support zones. This pair are on our watch list for possible buying opportunities once the DXY has topped out.
Monday 22nd March 2021
The AUDUSD had a strong impulsive move higher post FOMC announcement last week but has since reversed those gains. We are now tracking a possible pennant formation. Key zones to be aware of is the 0.7690 support and the 0.7795 resistance. We will be looking for breakouts on either side before entering a position in the market. The AUDUSD tends to follow the US stock market in either a risk-on or risk-off sentiment. We will see how the US stock market performs tonight.
Thursday 18th March 2021
The AUDUSD has broken out of the bull flag structure as we anticipated. Unfortunately, our SL was taken in the process. Very frustrating. We may continue to see further upside as equities are moving in a risk-on sentiment.
Tuesday 16th March 2021
The AUDUSD has a potential bull flag formation. IF global equities continue to move higher we can expect the AUD to move with it. Initially, the 0.7830 resistance will act as a short term target. The bull flag structure looks corrective in nature suggesting we should be heading higher.
Monday 15th March 2021
The AUDUSD is trading in “no-mans-land” between 0.7723 and 0.7800. If the bearish level is taken out to the downside it will suggest the recent rally is just a corrective rally and we could be set for another decline. However, if the 0.7800 resistance is taken out then bulls will be back in control, and the market may push back towards the 0.8000 resistance.
Wednesday – March 10th 2021
The AUDUSD 1 hour charts are showing a potentially corrective structure lower. The reason we believe the structure is corrective is due to the overlapping wave formations. A corrective structure is followed by a continuation of the trend in the direction of the overall trend, in this case higher.
So we see this set back as a possible correction, rather than a top in the market.
AUDUSD BULLS may regain some control especially if the market breaks the 0.7725 resistance.