Friday 21st January
Global equities are dumping hard, most likely a mixture of the current fundamentals -tensions in Europe and central bank policy changes that will take place over the coming months. Although I decided not to short US indices, the AUDJPY short trade is following the market and should face an aggressive move lower.
Wednesday 29th December
There has been no real significant change just yet. The ASX is still trading inside the pennant formation, we will be looking to go long if the ASX moves towards the 7150 support level and appears to be holding its price.
Monday 20th December
The ASX is still trading inside the pennant structure and is making its way towards the lower end. Our bullish invalidation level is 7127, any move beneath this level will invalidate our bullish setup. We are watching for a long trade opportunity, however, saying that the sharp move lower across the US market on Friday night is a concern. We will only look to trade this if the US market stabilises.
Monday 13th December
US markets are in a risk-on sentiment despite the Friday night inflation report. US inflation data increased YoY to 6.8% however it was in line with estimates, inflation MoM came out above forecast at 0.8%. Despite inflation concerns, the stock market moved aggressively higher during the later stages of last week, there is a possible blow-off top scenario in play before a significant correction. The recent correction on the NASDAQ, SP500 and DOW all appear to be in 3 corrective waves which indicate prices should be heading into record-high territory over the next week.
Wednesday 8th December
The ASX is also possibly trading inside a pennant structure which would indicate a continuation to the upside leading into Christmas. Generally, the stock market has a positive run in December due to the Santa Clause rally. Therefore this recent correction is most likely just a pullback before another move into record-high territory. We will be looking to buy on the E wave bottom or on the breakout above the pennant formation.
Tuesday 16th November
Looking across the board the majority of global indices are trading at record highs breaking above the September peaks. The ASX is lagging behind the rest of the market and we still favour a continuation to the upside here.
Friday 29th October
The CAC is moving higher along with the US market and we are expecting a new record high on the French index. The only issue is the entry point for a long trade and the fact that indices look very high across the board. The Elliott wave count is indicating one more push to the upside before a LARGE correction. My plan is to wait for the markets to top, and begin to look for shorting opportunities. We picked up a really strong win shorting the CAC a few weeks back, hopefully a similar scenario plays out for us.
Thursday 21st October
Looking across global indices there appears to be an impulsive recovery underway. Whilst the stock market does look overvalued, they tend to move higher than anyone expects. The UK index has already broken to a new high, the SP500 looks set to make a new ATH as well. The negative news from China has moved into the background and phased out, the US has raised their debt ceiling and appear to be on track to agree on the next infrastructure package. These are all supporting higher equity prices. The CAC (French index) appears to have finished the recent pullback in the market and we will be looking to go long expecting a move to new highs.
Wednesday 6th October
The NASDAQ has declined roughly 8% from the peak in September which is in line with the average pull back. Technically the index could have a corrective bounce from this low over the next couple of days. This also aligns with the JPY cross pairs which are indicating a risk-on move in the market. The overall market sentiment remains negative at the moment, however, we need to remain unbiased and not look too short at these lows – even if the market sentiment is bearish. The US will most likely raise their debt ceiling and also pass an infrastructure bill of +2 trillion USD over the coming weeks which will give the market something the cheer about.
Thursday 16th September
The SP500 has created a fake breakdown from the major trendline support. Unfortunately, we placed a hedge trade a day too early. There is a possibility of a rally from these lows, especially if the DXY declines. We will keep the SP500 on the back burner for the time being and be ready for the next shorting opportunity.
Monday 13th September
The SP500 is very much at a do or die zone, resting on a crucial trend line support. The DXY picked up some steam on Friday night breaking out of a possible bull flag/inverted head and shoulders formation which is supporting a short on the SP500. We need to see some follow-through on the DXY tonight and over the next couple of days to play into the risk-off scenario.
Friday 3rd September
Nothing new to report on the indices front, the SP500 continues the climb higher inside the wedge structure. One thing is for sure you can’t fight the FED. Whilst they continue money printing equities will remain bullish. We are watching for any breakdown opportunities.
Monday 30th August
The wedge on the SP500 continues to the upside, one thing is for sure you can’t fight the FED. Although the wedge looks primed for a reversal it is hard to find any reason for a shorting opportunity at the moment. The FED will continue bond purchases into year-end and will keep interest rates at record lows. We will keep a close eye on the stock market over the next week.
Monday 23rd August
The ASX is testing the previous highs at 7400 which is also a key trend line support. Looking across the board, the SP500 and DAX are both in a similar position. Interestingly, fundamentals have turned negative fairly quickly over the past week with a rapid increase in demand for the JPY and USD. It is too early to call a market top, there would need to be a breakdown from the wedge structures for a large correction to occur. One thing to keep in mind is the FED will not want to be the catalyst for a market crash, therefore we could see a recovery this week – I am expecting Jerome Powell to play down tapering and suggest the economy is doing very well. We can not rule out another move to the upside.
Tuesday 17th August
The SP500 is continuing to grind higher inside the wedge structure despite the risk-off move in the currency market overnight. The JPY has been in high demand over the past week due to global growth concerns. We are watching for any possible trigger that may result in a large drop in the US stock market. The ASX had a slight pullback overnight, however, I did not favour a short position as the US market is still trending higher.
Thursday 12th August 2021
The SP500 is still on the charge higher as the market digests the softer inflation data. This is positive for global stocks as it means bond tapering may not be as severe as first thought as inflation is potentially transitory as the FED previously suggested. Risk-on is very much the market sentiment at the moment. This is the most ridiculous wedge I have ever seen whilst trading, but what I can say is the market will continue higher taking out all the short-sellers in the market. So, we just need to remain patient for the short setup.
Monday 9th August 2021
The ASX is looking very similar to the SP500. The wedge structure continues to thin and grind higher. We are looking to short either the ASX or SP500 when the time is right.
Firstly, on Thursday Mexico may raise interest rates due to rising inflation, this may put pressure on the FED to begin bond tapering in the next meeting. Now, Mexico may not seem like such a big deal, it is more to do with the global sentiment. More central banks are slowly changing policy and signalling that inflation is more of a concern than what they initially thought. The US and China report the next round of inflation data this week which may result in an increased demand for safe-haven currencies. The market is expecting a huge 5.3% increase in YoY inflation in the US, any reading near or above that will no doubt freak out market participants. Furthermore, Delta is spreading rapidly across the globe, so there are numerous risk events ongoing that could be catalysts of another market pullback.
Tuesday 3rd August 2021
The SP500 has returned 100% ROI since the Covid-19 pandemic market crash back in March 2020. Now you do not need to be a trading expert to recognise how ridiculous this rising wedge structure is getting. Price action is getting very compressed at these heights. Of course, the market can always go higher and we do not want to short too early. However, this is on our watch list for a short over the coming sessions/week. If the SP500 corrects lower the DXY and JPY will strengthen due to the safe-haven status.
Monday 19th July 2021
NASDAQ weekly charts are painting a bearish set-up for US indices as there is a bearish engulfing weekly candle, followed by a breakdown from the rising channel structure. This is similar for the SP500 also.
Friday 9th July 2021
The NASDAQ is trading at a major trend line resistance inside a rising channel structure. The MACD has also crossed over and turned lower which has predicted pullbacks in the market previously. One concern is, if the NASDAQ breaks down from here it would most likely result in an increased demand for USD, meaning the DXY could break higher. We will need to monitor the US stock market closely.
Thursday 17th June 2021
The rising wedge continues on the SP500 with the index trading on the inclining support zone. If the DXY continues to strengthen and breaks out above the negative trend line resistance we can expect risk assets to move lower. On the other hand, if the DXY breaks down and the head and shoulders formation plays out then stocks will most likely rebound to the upside.
Sunday 16th May 2021
The SP500 has made a technical bounce on the trend line support at 4050. This level will be a crucial zone, if broken the market could see an even larger correction. We are yet to see if a top is in place across the financial markets. This week the FOMC minutes will be released early Thursday morning which will no doubt be a high impact event. Bond tapering or an interest rate rise talk will be the key mover.
Wednesday 5th May 2021
The NASDAQ has seen a steep decline towards the key trend line support. This is possibly a wave 4 correction, so we are now waiting for a possible buy opportunity. Ideally, I would like to see a 5 wave rise with a pullback to enter the market.
Tuesday 4th May 2021
The NASDAQ appears to be correcting into a wave 4, so we will be considering going long once wave 4 completes. The structure is very messy so we will remain on the sidelines until a bullish signal appears on the index.
Wednesday 28th April 2021
We have had a readjustment on our wave count on the NASDAQ. We see the possibility of a deeper correction playing out here. If you take a look back at the bull flag breakout back in late March there was a 5 wave decline to finish the A-B-C structure. Therefore, there is a strong possibility that the correction on the NASDAQ is not yet finished. The ideal scenario would be to see a 5 wave decline towards the 13,700 region where we can enter a long position.
Monday 26th April 2021
The NASDAQ appears to have completed an ABC correction, which suggests momentum is with the bulls. The bull flag highlighted on Friday has been broken to the upside. We see a final run higher on the NASDAQ into the 14,500-15,000 area before a much larger correction across risk assets.
Friday 23rd April 2021
The NASDAQ appears to be trading inside a wave 4 correction. This also appears to be a bull flag structure. We are anticipating a final push higher over the coming weeks. Once a 5 wave rise has complete we will be looking to go SHORT on the index. This appears to be the end of a major cycle which should provide a short opportunity. There is also a long opportunity here once a breakout to the upside of the bull flag has taken place.
Thursday 15th April 2021
The SP500 has broken down from the rising wedge formation with the bearish divergence on the RSI. If the DXY rallies from the support zone that has been highlighted in the DXY tab, the SP500 should continue to move lower based on the risk-off sentiment.
Monday 12th April 2021
The SP500 has created a “throw-over” which can happen at the top of the trend creating a very bullish look to the structure. We are becoming aware that the technical structures are signalling a number of alarm bells. Generally markets will continue moving higher taking out all short sellers in the market.
On the shorter-term time frame, the SP500 is setting up a rising wedge structure followed by a bearish divergence. So we may look to trade the sell side later this evening for a reasonable pull back on the index. US CPI data is due tomorrow night which may result in volatility on US indices.
Thursday 8th April 2021
I will be doing a webinar on the US stock market later this afternoon guys. But whilst we are looking at the NASDAQ we can see a bullish Elliott Wave sequence unfolding. There is a possible buy opportunity once the market pulls back from wave 3. Once the overall trend has finished at the 14,100+ area we are expecting a very large correction across all indices.
The SP500 is leading the market and is creating a parabolic rally or a blow-off top which can occur at the end of a trend. More on these structures during the webinar later this afternoon.
Tuesday 6th April 2021
To be honest, I am not enjoying looking at this chart. The trade is playing out perfectly as expected. There has not been a nice pullback for an entry on the NASDAQ just yet. As soon as a pullback occurs we will be looking to get back in on the action. Risk V reward is also important when considering a trade, there has not been an optimal place to put a SL since our trade was taken at break even.
Thursday 1st April 2021
As expected the NASDAQ has broken out of the bull flag structure suggesting bulls are back in control. We may now see the NASDAQ break above the neck line from the inverse head and shoulders. Very frustrating our long position was stopped out at breakeven. We do plan on getting back into the NASDAQ or we will be looking to take a look at TESLA (check bonus charts).
Tuesday 30th March 2021
Very frustrating with the NASDAQ closing at breakeven, the structure below looks corrective in nature meaning the index should be heading higher. There is also a bull flag structure forming, we will wait for any signs of a breakout or a better entry point to reengage in the trade.
Tuesday 16th March 2021
The SP500 and Dow Jones have continued to hit new record highs, however, the tech sector has struggled to pick up momentum due to investors taking profits on growth tech stocks. Looking across the board at the FANG stocks, there are some key players trading at a major discount. This means buyers may begin to step back into the market which could give the tech sector a boost.
The NASDAQ has tested its new support at 12,200 and has broken the negative trend line which are both bullish signals. We will be looking to trade the NASDAQ in the trading floor later this afternoon.
Friday 12th March 2021
The SP500 has moved back towards record highs as Joe Biden signed the final covid-19 relief package. However what we need to discuss is the current structure. The next move will be dictated by the direction of the DXY (USD Index). If the USD index moves higher, then expect another correction in the US stock market – Please check the USD Index charts. You can see below a number of W corrective structures that I have highlighted. A-B-C corrections can form a W formation.
So we either have a situation where the USD rallies to a fresh high, which will result in another pull back in the market (risk off). If this occurs we will be looking to go long on support around the 3750 zone after a sizeable decline. OR the USD index breaks down further and the SP500 creates a clean break through. If this occurs we will stay long on the AUDUSD and look to build into the NASDAQ which is lagging behind the SP500.
Wednesday 10th March 2021
NASDAQ – Bulls could be back into the picture, however ONLY if the market breaks above the negative trend line resistance.