Bonus Charts

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Tuesday 21st June

The AUDJPY turned sharply lower last week and has since recovered into the 94.22 resistance zone. Over the next 24-48 hours we are expecting a continuation to the upside, however we are actively looking for shorting opportunities. The rally from the 86 low to the 97 high is only in 3 waves, which indicates a corrective rally. Therefore, based on the Elliott wave count we are expecting a large drop into the 88 support zone soon. This will complete an ABC correction on the larger degree. Looking at the fundamental side of things, the BoJ is doing all they can to contain interest rates, however at some point they will need to pivot and allow rates to rise, alongside the rest of the world. This will result in a large rotation back into the JPY. 96 is our first potential shorting zone.

Wednesday 15th June

Looking back at the EURAUD position, another trade that just hit our SL before reversing in the correct direction. Technically speaking there is an inverse head and shoulders structure in play, along side a bullish pennant breakout. This indicated a weaker AUD is on the cards, which leads me into the AUDJPY analysis below.

 

The AUDJPY has possibly completed its first 5 wave decline. The AUDJPY is now retracting higher, and for us to consider going short again, the rally needs to be in 3 sub waves, similar to the previous decline. This is another great opportunity to pick up 200+ pips, we just need to be patient for the corrective rally to unfold. 

The EURJPY is also looking very similar to the AUDJPY. There has been an initial 5 wave decline, which generally means another 5 wave decline will occur after an abc corrective rally. The corrective rally may take a couple of days to unfold.

 

BTCUSD – The crypto market has been hit hard this week, and so far BTCUSD is down roughly 65% from its record high. Generally speaking, during a BTC bear market BTC can decline anywhere from 80%-90%, therefore the downside target is set at the $13-$15k level. However, this bear market is slightly different, there are institutional funds in play, which may limit the downside potential. There are also a number of trend lines providing crucial support at the 20k area. 

The BTC 2 year MA multiplier range has also been broken to the downside. These periods do not generally last long, and can be considered a accumulation phase. A move back above the 2 year moving average is the sign we will need that a bull market has resumed. We are confident in the long term potential for cryptos, and this will set up huge opportunities once the market bottoms.

 

Friday 10th June

The GBPUSD is still on our watchlist for a long trade setup, however I have accounted for another low in the price action to complete an abc corrective decline. This aligns with another push to the upside on the DXY.

The EURCHF is back on the watchlist for a long trade setup. For those who are fairly new to Elliott wave theory this chart may seem slightly daunting. However, the main concept is to understand the ABC sideways correction, the subwave count is 5-3-5 and the EURCHF has began a new 5 wave bullish move to the upside. Therefore, I am watching for a smaller a-b-c correction to complete a wave (ii) pull back before considering going long. If this count is correct, the next move is going to be a large wave 3 bullish move to the upside. Wave 3 is generally the longest and most powerful in the market. Sit tight for the time being.

Wednesday 8th June 2022

The GBPUSD is on the radar for a long trade setup with our targets set at 1.2950-1.3260. The rally from the low can be classed as a leading diagonal structure, and the recent decline appears to be in 3 waves labelled a-b-c. Therefore we can assume another 5 wave rally will unfold, which aligns with a weaker DXY over the coming weeks. There is also a technical inverse head and shoulders formation in play, which is a bullish signal. A trade setup will be posted later today on the pair.

Frustrating here on the USDCHF, after a loss last week I lost confidence in the position and closed early. Controlling emotions and sticking to a trading plan is the hard part after identifying an opportunity. This would have been great trade. I will let the price action unfold before looking at another position on the USDCHF.

Monday 6th June

The AUDJPY is potentially ready for a short, I am watching for confirmation of a breakdown from the rising channel structure. This is consistent with a breakdown from a rising channel structure on the AUDUSD. This is clearly a big call, and my assumption is based on the B wave triangle formation prior to the rally to the upside. A move lower on the AUDJPY would indicate a risk-off market sentiment which would also indicate lower equity prices. Once a breakdown occurs, we will look to target the 91 support level initially.

Tuesday 30th May 2022

Picking bottoms is a tough job, especially in the crypto market which is extremely volatile. The first chart below suggests BTC is approaching a bottom but has some more room on the downside which would take the price action into the 20k area. The weekly RSI is yet to reverse but has been a strong indicator of reversals and bottoms in the market previously.

The bullish Elliott wave count on BTCUSD is still valid and the rising pitchfork is providing support, however, the wave C of the ABC decline appears to be slightly short compared to the initial wave A. There is a chance of 1 more low to come in the crypto market which would align with the first chart above. However, I think it depends largely on the direction of the DXY. IF the DXY has topped and begins to sell-off over the next couple of weeks there is a high probability of a bottom in the crypto market as well as the stock market.

Taking a look at the Elliott wave count there has been a clear ABC decline with a sub-wave count of 5-3-5. So generally speaking this would indicate the end of a bearish correction. However, due to the triangle structure in the recent price action, I am assuming the AUDJPY is trading inside a wave c of wave B in a counter-trend rally. This indicates that we are yet to have a final wave C decline which should be similar in length to wave A. The 3 wave decline was potentially just the first wave A of an ABC correction. Triangle structures can only occur in wave B or wave 4, so this indicates the JPY  cross pairs are going to have another move lower. This is similar across all JPY cross pairs. If the JPY strengthens it would indicate a strong risk-off move in the market in the near future.

Tuesday 24th May 2022

After a very close call on the GBPAUD, the position is looking much better. The wave e low has not taken out the wave c low which indicates a bullish triangle structure. In hindsight I closed out our long positions on the EURUSD and AUDUSD a day too early. However, there will be other opportunities to buy back in at a later stage.

The USDCHF appears to have completed an initial 5 wave decline, so I am watching for a long trade setup to trade the corrective counter-trend rally. The USDJPY also aligns with this setup. Other pairs like the AUDUSD, EURUSD and GBPUSD appear to be moving in the favour of the USD so we may see a corrective move higher on the DXY over the next couple of days.

Monday 16th May 2022

I am going to put a brave call out there and say the bottom is in for cryptocurrencies. If you watched the webinar I previously recorded a month ago I suggested that one more low is a possibility to set up an expanding flat scenario. This appears to have taken place as the wave B rally set up a higher high than the end of wave 3, and the C wave correction has created a lower low than the wave A corrective decline. The bullish invalidation level is at $13,523, which is the wave 1 top. The rising channel structure is still in play, and we will remain in the bullish camp until a breakdown occurs. Looking at the stock market, the US market should recover this week based on a possible completed ABC corrective decline. We are also watching for a rollover on the DXY or at least a correction.

BTC & ETH – Long Term Technical Analysis

The USDCHF is still trading higher inside a rising channel structure. There is yet to be a wave (iv) pull back to set up the next buying opportunity. We may also consider a short term sell once a topping formation has occurred.

Wednesday 11th May

The USDCHF is yet to setup a 4th wave corrective pull back, the pair is still trading inside a bullish 3rd wave which can take some time to complete. The 3rd wave is generally the longest and most aggressive, which is what is taking place at the moment. Once a 4th wave corrective pull back occurs we can look for another long trade opportunity.

 

The EURCHF is tracking well, nothing fresh to report on this one apart from the possibility of increasing our target zone to the 1.0800 region.

Monday 9th May 2022

Cryptos are still sliding to the downside and the running or expanding flat scenario appears to be unfolding. If it is an expanding flat the low will surpass the A wave low at $28,900 USD. Whilst this is hurting some of my crypto portfolio, I do see this as a great long term opportunity to enter into a number of ALT coins over the coming weeks. I would recommend keeping some cash on the side ready to deploy when the time is right.

The AUDJPY is trading inside a corrective rally. We can count an initial 5 wave decline which is labelled wave A, there has been a possible a-b-c corrective rally, OR there is yet to be one final high to complete the c wave in the corrective rally. I am focusing heavily on this set-up this week as there should be 300+ pips up for grabs if it plays out to the downside.

The EURCHF is ticking along nicely, we are sitting tight on the position and will possibly look to buy into any ABC corrective declines. I am well and truly kicking myself for closing the USDCHF too early, so we will let this one run over the next week and hopefully reach the end target zone. SL is set to break even so we have no risk on this position.

 

Wednesday 4th April

The USDCHF is still moving higher, however I am expecting limited upside over the next couple of days. The wave count suggest the USDCHF is trading inside wave 3 of a bullish move tot he upside. Once a 4th wave corrective pull back occurs we can look to reload long positions for the final 5th wave bullish rally.

 

The AUDJPY is still trading inside a corrective rally, therefore we are looking for a move into the 94.50 resistance zone before considering going short on the pair. The blue abc wave count is my favoured scenario. In the short term the AUD may strengthen due to the interest rate hike from the RBA yesterday. The RBA increased rates by 0.25% which was larger than what the market was expecting. 

The EURAUD has rallied higher in 3 waves, therefore this can be labelled as an initial a-b-c counter rally. This is the opposite to the AUDJPY. Once the EURAUD has declined in 3 waves we may look to go long on the pair for a final C wave rally to the upside.

Our buy position on the EURCHF is beginning to move higher. We are expecting the EURCHF to break above the neck line of the inverse head and shoulders formation taking us into the 1.0500 resistance zone initially. Sit tight on this position for the time being.

Saturday 30th April

The AUDJPY has turned sharply lower during Fridays trading session along side global equities. We are looking for short positions on Monday as the corrective rally appears to have completed at our TP level. The AUDJPY should set up another 5 wave decline which will complete a larger ABC corrective decline with a sub wave count of 5-3-5.

Wednesday 27th April

Risk assets are in decline across the board, most likely due to the fears of aggressive rate hikes over the coming months. From an Elliott wave perspective, we are now tracking another decline on BTCUSD as the rally to the upside appears to be in 3 waves, with a B wave triangle formation. We will be looking for buying opportunities once the 5th wave decline completes around the 32-28k area. Long term we are bullish, however be aware of another short term dip in the market.

The USDCHF is still moving higher and should be approaching the end of wave (iii). We are waiting for a corrective pullback on the market to set up the next buying opportunity. Once wave (iv) is complete we will look to go long in the market with targets set at the 0.99 resistance zone. The wave (iv) low can not overlap the wave (i) top, which will be the new bullish invalidation level.

The AUDJPY is close to completing a 5 wave initial decline. After a 5 wave decline there should be a minimum 3 wave corrective rally. The big trade will be the C wave decline which we will be looking to trade. I may look to take a short term buy position over the next day or two.

Monday 25th April

The USDCHF is continuing its move to the upside which aligns with our EURCHF long position. We closed out our initial positions here with a very good profit, however I will be looking for opportunities to buy back into this trend over the next week.

 The AUDJPY has possibly reached a top in a major trend cycle as we can see 2 different triangle formations. The first larger triangle was possibly the 4th wave of a major market cycle, and the smaller triangle at the top of the trend was possibly the 4th wave of the 5th wave to the upside. We are actively looking for short trades on this pair over the next couple of days. There has also been a weekly pin bar formation which generally indicates a change in trend due to the selling pressure.

Tuesday 19th April

No significant change on the EURCHF, we are still expecting a large move to the upside which would be a very healthy payday! We have one active position and a second entry ready to go. We are viewing any dips over the next 24-48 hours as buying opportunities.

Thursday 14th April 2022

Very close call on the EURCHF with 5 pips left in the SL, but the position is looking much better this morning. The move higher is looking rather impulsive which is a great sign. We will watch for any corrective dips to buy into at lower levels. The USDCHF is tracking well and if the Elliott wave count is correct – it should pick up some momentum over the next 24 hours.

 

PAYPAL – We have been holding our long leverage trade for a couple of weeks and the stock price action has declined into the 61% FIB retracement level. Technically speaking this is still suggesting a move to the upside due to the bullish 5 wave sequence to the upside followed by an A-B-C correction. We can look to build a second position on the stock at the 112 resistance level. 

 

BABA – Alibaba has continued to the downside after we purchase the stock outright. However, we are looking for a long trade leverage setup over the next couple of weeks. There appears to have been a completed major market cycle decline, labelled A-B-C. There was a large extension in wave C. 

On the 15 minute time frame, the price action looks relatively similar to PAYPAL. There has been a 5 wave sequence to the upside followed by an a-b-c corrective decline. The triangle formation also tells us its an a-b-c decline as triangle formations can only occur in wave 4 or wave b. We will be looking to go long on the stock with a leverage trade at the 117 high.

 

Saturday 9th April

If this is correct we are all set on a hell of a trade! We need the USDCHF to clear 0.9378 and 0.9463 over the next week. As the market is possibly moving into wave iii, it should move quickly to the upside. Wave iii is generally the longest and most aggressive. There could be another opportunity to buy into this pair next week once a key level is breached.

The EURAUD is in a major oversold condition on the MACD Daily chart, we are expecting a technical bounce on the EURAUD next week as the support level has been used on previous occasions as a reversal zone. This also supports downside on the AUDUSD after a corrective rally.

Wednesday 6th April 2022

If you look at Elliott wave theory in a text book the NZDCAD looks near identical. The NZDCAD has possibly finished a bear market correction in 3 waves and has possibly set up the first impulsive wave to the upside. We are looking to go long at 0.8783 with a long term target above 0.9323. I will be posting a live trade once it is ready to go

The USDCHF is finally moving to the upside, we will be looking to move our SL to breakeven once the pair breaks the first resistance zone. IF the Elliott wave complex B wave triangle is correct, the price action should be heading towards the 0.9650 level over the next couple of weeks. Just need to sit tight for the time being.

The EURCHF has possibly bottomed after a 3 wave corrective decline. Our long entry position is at 1.0243 and should continue towards the 1.0522 resistance target. Ideally this should move along side the USDCHF. Our stop loss is set below the most recent swing low position so we are all set for our entry to be activated.

Saturday 2nd April (Stocks & Crypto)

Well held here on the GDX, the US stock/ETF is currently trading +22% from our initial entry point, this is also similar on the ASX version. The clear bull flag breakout is looking great for a continuation to the upside. There will be a reaction of some sort around the 47 resistance level, however over the longer term we are expecting a move into 60.

 

PAYPAL update. Please check the trade on PayPal for the longer term analysis. On the 1 hour chart, I can count a clear 5 wave bullish rally to the upside, we can now expect an abc corrective decline into the 112 support zone before another 5 wave bullish rally. This is ticking along nicely and we may have the opportunity to add a second position with a tighter stop loss next week.

Crypto Update:

Morning team, outside of FX trading I also have a crypto portfolio and have provided some charts on the coins I like the look of over the longer term. Firstly BNB, I have been accumulating BNB on the technical breakout around $350 USD and I am expecting a rise to the $500 resistance over the next week or so. I will want to see how BNB reacts around the 500 resistance as technically speaking this will be a head and shoulders formation (bearish). However, if the overall market remains bullish I doubt this will play out.

ADA – ADA has broken out of a long term negative trending channel formation, which alone suggests a change in trend. The 1 support zone can be used as an accumulation zone on this one. I have highlighted a couple of key levels on the charts where a reaction may occur. 

VET – I posted this chart on VET in the crypto chat a couple of weeks back when VET was trading at roughly 0.058. The price action is now trading at 0.08 and appears to be running higher. From an Elliott wave perspective the coin appears to have completed a long term ABC corrective decline, finishing with an ending diagonal formation. 

Tuesday 22nd March

The USDCHF is retesting the top of the triangle formation, our buy zone is the 0.9490 resistance level. For us to consider going long we would need to see a move higher as soon as possible. Any breakdown into the triangle will raise a red flag on the bullish scenario. Interestingly, this aligns with a move higher on the USDCAD, DXY and a short term move lower on the EURUSD.

XRP appears too have broken out of the triangle formation and we are just in a waiting game for the time being. Both positions are protected with the SL at breakeven. Our first target zone is the 0.9000 resistance level.

Friday 18th March

BTC & ETH Elliott Wave analysis

 

Thursday 17th March

The USDCHF has made a breakout to the upside of the triangle formation. We are looking for a continuation to the upside on this pair. Safe-haven currencies are down, especially the JPY due to potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. This is creating a risk-on sentiment in the FX market. The initial invasion has taken place, the likely hood of the war escalating to other nations is relatively slim as there will be no “winner” in a larger war involving other nations. We are hoping for a de-escalation, which would put the CHF and JPY in a position of weakness moving forward.

XRP is tracking well so far and the bullish count is very much intact. Keep a close eye on the rising trend line support on the 1-hour chart, any breakdown from there could indicate a deeper correction – for now, we are sitting tight on the long trades.

Thursday 10th March

The NZDJPY bearish invalidation level is set at 79.58, any new high above this level will suggest the bullish trend remains intact. We are still waiting for a breakdown from the rising trend line support. Technically speaking this is ticking the box for a short trade soon. As we are already on the AUDJPY, we will be looking to possibly add another position from a higher level due to the counter-trend rally overnight.

 

The USDCHF is still on our watch list for a long trade setup. Price is continuing to compress inside the triangle formation and will explode out of the structure soon. Our buy zone is set at 0.9340. I’ll keep you posted once we activate a trade.

 

 

Wednesday 9th March

The NZDJPY has reached a major resistance zone at 79.50. This level has provided a number of selling opportunities previously and this could be another one. Looking at the NZDJPY on the shorter-term time frame we can now count 5 waves down from the peak which tends to be the early signs of a reversal. We are watching for a breakdown from the rising trend line support, our short position can go into the market at 78.54. I will have a trade set up live once the breakdown occurs.

The NZDUSD daily chart is also indicating a major rejection from a key negative trend line resistance, which also aligns with the 61% FIB retracement zone and the 200 day MA. Based on both charts indicating possible reversal opportunities against the NZD we are considering a short trade on either the NZDJPY or the NZDUSD.

Monday 7th March

Cryptos are consolidating at the moment with both BTCUSD and ETHUSD trading inside pennant formations. There are both bullish and bearish cases for the next. On one hand, the conflict in Europe is creating a risk-off environment for all risk assets, including cryptos, and we have seen a lot of selling pressure over the past two weeks as investors are most likely reducing exposure to equities and cryptos. On the other hand, the sanctions placed on Russian banks and high net worth individuals may also increase volume moving into the decentralized space. War, conflict and political tensions all reduce trust for the government and central banks, which may also lead individuals to move deeper into cryptocurrency. We are already long on XRP, we are waiting for other opportunities to open up over the coming weeks. There will be a time to buy some assets at a major discount!

Friday 4th March

The EURAUD has broken a major support zone on the weekly time frame. This indicates the AUD may continue to strengthen over the coming months. There is a large head and shoulders formation in play here, once a retest of the support zone occurs we may look to enter a short position.

XRP has moved to the upside as expected, we are now waiting for the next move higher. Anyone looking to add another position to XRP can use the 0.8040 resistance as a BUY STOP level.

Friday 25th February

Despite the conflict happening across Europe, risk currencies have not seen the downside pressure I was expecting. The AUD, CAD and NZD have all held up against the safe haven currencies. There is still a chance of a breakdown here on the NZDUSD if the DXY continues to pick up some momentum.

The USDCHF is still trading inside a long term triangle and we are expecting a breakout any day now. We are looking to buy any breakout above 0.9339 over the coming days, expecting a move towards 0.9700 initially.

Monday 21st February

The CADJPY and the AUDJPY both appear to be setting up a bearish move, which also aligns with the USDJPY analysis. Very close call on the AUDPY with just 1 pip in the trade. We will sit tight on the AUDJPY as the technicals and fundamentals still support a move lower.

Tuesday 15th February

The AUDJPY is trading inside a contracting triangle formation but looks incomplete. Therefore we are watching for a move towards the 80 support level before considering going long in the market. If the AUDJPY turns south it will indicate a risk off market sentiment as the JPY will strengthen across the board.

The USDCHF is still trading inside a contracting triangle structure and eventually the structure will provide a breakout play. We are leaning to a bullish move towards the 0.9800 resistance zone before another deep decline. Triangles can only occur in wave b or wave 4 in Elliott wave theory. We will be looking to go long above the bullish high only.

Tuesday 8th February

Ripple came VERY close to invalidating the bullish Elliott wave count at 0.5060. The price action has setup a higher low and is surging to the upside. We can count a clear 5 wave rally to the upside followed by a very long 3 wave corrective decline. We are still hodling our bag of XRP in the Trading Floor and will wait for a corrective pull back to leverage a long trade setup. This is still early days, however the higher low is possibly providing a bullish setup. 

2nd February 2022

Markets are in recovery mode with the US stock market taking a strong bounce on support. Due to the risk-on sentiment, the JPY is declining across the board and I am considering a long trade opportunity here on the NZDJPY. There is a bullish divergence on the daily time frame, and the bearish head and shoulders structure is possibly complete.

Friday 21st January

VERY close call here in the AUDJPY but we should now be in the clear. Sit tight on this position for the time being. If we hit the 79,82 target it will be a huge payday on the double position.

Monday 17th January

There is a possible buying opportunity on ADA with a strong bounce at the $1 support zone. I will keep you posted if we look to purchase this coin over the coming days.

Friday 14th January

The AUDJPY has possibly setup a lower high inside a potential triangle formation. Keeping our eyes on the rising channel structure for any breakdown play.

Thursday 23rd December

The USDCHF is finally moving south after a number of attempts. Once the 0.9160 support is broken it should open the doors for a much deeper correction. Our targets remain at the 0.8930 support level.

Monday 20th December

There is still downside pressure on BTCUSD along with the majority of risk-on assets. The break of the rising trend line support indicates a change in trend so we are watching for a move into the 40,000 support. The MACD and RSI are showing some signs that a bottom is near however it is far too early to call just yet.

Thursday 9th December

The AUDNZD is tracking well so far with both of our open positions. Our initial target is at 1.08 however there is the potential for this to run a lot higher. From an Elliott wave perspective, there has been a completion of a 3 wave correction which began back in September 2020. For this bullish scenario to hold any weight we really need the 1.06 resistance taken out. Until this level is taken out there can still be a bearish move. A new high above this level will indicate a much larger rally is unfolding. The rally from March-September 2020 is in a clear 5 wave impulsive rally so, in theory, a similar structure should now occur. Time to sit tight and see how this plays out over the next couple of days.

The USDCHF is starting to move south, we need to see some follow-through over the next day or two. Our second entry is not too far away which should help the profits on the way down. The USDCAD is also moving lower as expected which is indicating USD weakness across the board.

Monday 6th December

We are watching for a bounce higher on the USDCHF for a shorting opportunity. This appears to be a bearish pennant structure after creating a fake breakout above the structure last week.

There was a large pullback across the crypto market over the weekend, possibly a decline to wipe out leveraged positions which tends to occur before a major leg higher. The XRP bullish count is still valid until the 0.51 support is taken out which is the invalidation point. We are watching for a long trade set-up, ideally once the declining trend line is broken to the upside.

Friday 3rd December

The VIX (volatility index) has surged higher during the risk-off market move over the past week, however, it has reached a major resistance zone. Technically the VIX should decline from here which would provide some relief for risk assets. If the VIX declines from resistance it could lead to a recovery across stocks and JPY pairs.

 

Tuesday 23rd November

The USDCHF is trading inside a pennant formation and a breakout, either way, will occur over the next couple of trading sessions. This is on our watch list for a trading opportunity.

BTC is trading inside a rising channel structure. The pullback in the market is still in favour of the bulls until the rising trendline support is taken out. If the channel structure is broken to the downside there is a higher probability of a much deeper correction.

Tuesday 16th November

GDX is edging higher alongside gold prices. We are expecting this to be a long term play over the coming months. Once a breakout above the bull flag formation occurs we can sit back and relax on this position.

GBPUSD – The GBPUSD is approaching the lower end of the declining channel structure. No set up here just yet, momentum is still in the bearish direction.

Monday 8th November

XRP is tracking well, our SL is at breakeven so we need to see a bullish continuation to the upside. 1.3892 is our first target, however, if this level is taken out there should be a large impulsive move to the upside. We will see how it plays out this week, if 1.3890 is broken 1.7 will be our next target.

Thursday 21st October

The NZDUSD is possibly setting up a very bullish outlook, but this would require a major devaluation of the USD. Taking a look across the board, there are a number of central banks ahead of the FED in their policy outlook. The UK, NZ and CAD all appear to be closer to raising interest rates so bets are growing that these central banks will shoot first. This would lead to strengthening across all pairs against the USD and will play into the DXY bearish bias. The NZD, AUD and CAD are all in high demand due to the risk on market sentiment and bullish commodity market. The JPY has been the worst performer of the week indicating investors are risk-on.

Monday 18th October

We have been tracking the AUDNZD for another long trade opportunity. It appears as though it has finished its first 5 wave sequence to the upside after completing a longer-term ABC corrective structure. We are expecting a large move to the upside over the coming weeks, just a matter of timing the long trade correctly. There is a possibility of a slightly deeper correction in the short term. I will keep you posted once this set-up is ready to go.

Wednesday 6th October

The AUDJPY is finally moving to the upside and the NZDJPY is also setting up a bullish picture. There is a nice inverted head and shoulders formation followed by a retest of the broken bull flag structure. With the JPY pairs setting up a bullish move to the upside, we can expect the stock market to take a technical bounce. This suggests the market could stabilise over the coming days. JPY weakness generally indicates a risk-on environment, resulting in risk assets performing well, from crypto through to stocks.

Friday 1st October

The AUDJPY rallied as expected and would have hit our TP set last week. I am looking to reload on this position today, but only if the market breaks the 80.90 resistance. There is a clear 5 wave rally and a possible ABC correction in play, which indicates a bullish trend. I will keep you posted once a trade set-up is ready to go.

Tuesday 28th September

The AUDNZD is breaking out of a falling wedge structure which suggests a bullish reversal opportunity could be in play. This is a trade setup we are looking to buy into later this afternoon. The NZDCAD would have been a great trade, just unfortunate we were stopped out at breakeven. NZD weakness is coming into the market as expected.

Tuesday 21st September

We have been watching the NZD for a reversal opportunity and the AUDNZD is finally picking up some momentum. Taking a look at the NZDCAD there is also a possible shorting opportunity, which suggests NZD weakness could be coming into the market. The AUDNZD has set up a large 3 wave decline, labelled ABC. Once a breakout from the falling wedge occurs we will be looking to go long for a swing trade. This could provide significant upside over the next couple of weeks with targets above the wave 1 top.

Monday 13th September

The NZDUSD has set up a technical pattern called “dark cloud cover” on the weekly charts. This is a bearish reversal pattern. Price action opens above the close on the candle previous but closes lower. This has worked fairly well at spotting reversal opportunities on the NZDUSD previously. This is technically setting up a short trade opportunity for the week ahead. I will keep you posted once we look to enter the trade.

NZDUSD 4 Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart has set up a lower high which indicates a change in trend. There is also a possible 3 wave correction – bearish.

Monday 6th September

The USDCHF is back down to the 0.9118 support. Technically this still ticks the box for an inverted head and shoulders structure – suggesting a move to the upside. Obviously, the DXY in decline is not helping this pair, however, due to the risk on market sentiment, the CHF should devalue due to the decreased demand for the safe-haven currencies.

Friday 3rd September 2021

RIPPLE – Potential breakout here on ripple (XRP). The inverted head and shoulders structure played out as expected from earlier in the week. Cryptos tend to have a positive run over the weekends so let’s see if it can crack the 1.3830 resistance. If so it should open the doors for a move towards 1.7080.

DOGECOIN – similar set up here to Ripple. The inverted head and shoulders structure played out from earlier in the week. Doge appears to have also broken a bull flag structure. We are bullish on Doge whilst it trades above the wedge structure.

Wednesday 1st September

The USDCHF has been range-trading for a week or so, but it ticks the box for a long trade. The inverted head and shoulders structure indicates a potential move to the upside. Also, keep an eye on a breakout of the pennant structure to the upside.

Monday 30th August 2021

XRP (Ripple) is looking rather bullish from a technical perspective. An inverted head and shoulders structure is setting up alongside a bull flag structure. We can see the recent correction is in three waves labelled a-b-c, which also indicates a move to the upside. There is a really nice risk v reward on this set-up as we can expect XRP to break the 1.400 highs. over the coming weeks.

Looking at JPY crosses, they all look set for a bullish run higher. The declining channel formation on the NZDJPY looks set to break to the upside, which would suggest another risk-on move in the market is around the corner. We will be waiting for any pullbacks on JPY pairs to possibly go long. Ideally, we would like to go long on the AUDJPY or NZDJPY. First, there needs to be a breakout above the negative trend line.

Wednesday 25th August

The EURJPY is testing a negative trend line resistance. A break above here will give us the green light to go long towards the 130.60 resistance initially. The JPY has been in low demand throughout the early stages of the week. We are set up on the GBPJPY, but keep a close eye on this pair also.

Tuesday 17th August

The GBPUSD is trading inside a possible bull flag structure. This would indicate DXY weakness over the coming week. We will only look to trade this if there is a breakout to the upside of the flag structure. The stop loss would need to go at the swing low of 1.3788. I will keep you posted.

Thursday 12th August 2021

GBPUSD had a nice bounce near the 1.38 support. There is a possible inverted head and shoulders structure in play, but we will wait for a break above the negative trendline resistance. That will indicate a large rally to the upside is on the cards.

Most charts are indicating DXY weakness could take place over the next couple of weeks – USDCAD, EURUSD and the NZDUSD.

Monday 9th August 2021

The GBPUSD is tracking okay so far. We need to see an acceleration to the downside. Technically the 1.3790 support could set up an inverse head and shoulders formation. Keep in mind the UK is recovering from the Covid-19 virus quicker than other parts of the world and the BoE is also looking at bond tapering soon. So the GBP is actually rather bullish at the moment. Once the GBPUSD reaches 1.3850 we will look to move the SL to breakeven.

Tuesday 3rd August 2021

The AUDNZD is approaching a fairly important trend line support. This level has provided a reversal opportunity, however, due to the RBA statement today it is too early to call. The RBA is expected to take a dovish tone due to the Covid-19 outbreaks. We will see how this plays out initially and may enter on the LONG side if the opportunity presents itself. The big move will take place if the RBA actually takes a more positive tone than the market is expecting.

Tuesday 13th July 2021

The AUDJPY could have bottomed as the market has set up a bullish divergence on the RSI which has predicted reversal opportunities previously. We are on the AUDNZD for a long trade so I will not post a trade set-up on the AUDJPY, but this looks fairly nice and ticks the boxes to buy into.

Finally a breakout above the falling channel structure for the AUDNZD. Once the retest has completed there is another opportunity to go long in the market.

Friday 9th July 2021

AUDNZD analysis is still valid. I understand some of you who trade with Fusion markets were stopped out due to the spread. Our trade on Focus is still active which is frustrating. To re-enter the position wait for a breakout above the negative trend channel with the SL below the most recent swing low.

Thursday 8th July 2021

EURGBP is not playing ball at the moment, but the bull flag structure is still intact. Hopefully, we see a break above the 0.8590 resistance over the coming sessions.

Tuesday 6th July 2021

The GBPUSD has possibly set up a bullish breakout. We have a pretty full portfolio at the moment, once we close down a trade this could be an option to go long towards the 1.4000 resistance.

The AUDNZD is still trending lower inside a possible bull flag structure. Once the market breaks the 1.0727 resistance we can look to enter another position. Hopefully, this comes today with the RBA interest rate decision and statement. The structure is overlapping and very messy which does suggest a correction rather than a trend.

Friday 2nd July 2021

The AUDNZD trade is still valid. We can count a five-wave rise which is a bullish sequence and a possible abc correction. There is also an inverted head and shoulders formation in play. Hopefully we see some upside throughout next week.

Monday 21st June 2021

AUDCAD is setting up a possible head and shoulders formation. There has been a falling wedge breakout, which looks very similar to the breakout previous. To enter the trade I would like to see a move above 0.9400.

The AUDNZD is on our watchlist for a long opportunity. There is a possible triangle formation, and based on the impulsive rally from March 2020-September 2020 and the current corrective structure, we favour a move to the upside. A breakout above 1.0900 will be a key buy zone.

EURGBP –  We are tracking a possible bull flag structure on the EURGBP which could move towards the 0.8735 resistance initially. I will keep you posted on any active trade .

Thursday 3rd June 2021

AUDCAD is trading down the negative trend line support. We will leave things for the time being.

Tuesday 1st June 2021

The RBA provides the next interest rate decision and statement today at 14:30. The AUDCAD has a falling wedge structure leading into a key support zone at the 61% FIB retracement. It is too early to buy the pair, however, we will be looking for any breakout post announcement. Interestingly, the NZDCAD has the same structure prior to the RBNZ last week and broke out to the upside. We will be looking to position prior to the 14:30 announcement in the trading floor.

Wednesday 26th May 2021

The AUDNZD has broken down leading into the RBNZ interest rate decision and statement later this afternoon. We will be looking to move our SL to open prior to the event.

Wednesday 19th May 2021

NZDUSD is looking very similar to the AUDUSD with a possible head and shoulders formation in play. With this set up we would like to see a break below the rising trend line support before considering the trade.

Sunday 16th May 2021

I posted a set up on Tesla a few weeks back and it has been unfolding nicely over the past couple of weeks. To be honest, I am never a fan of shorting a stock as it is risky business. What we will now wait for is the correction to end around the 400-450 zone. This will provide a great entry to buy the stock outright, and possibly execute a leveraged position. Tesla appears to be leading the market, especially the NASDAQ.

Friday 30th April 2021

Crude Oil – We were stopped out this week going short on crude oil, however, I am still in the camp of seeing further downside here. The bear flag structure is still in play. The USDCAD is still under pressure and is approaching a major support zone. Once the USDCAD bottoms there could be a large reversal meaning a stronger USDCAD and weaker oil prices. We will remain on the sidelines for the time being.

Wednesday 28th April 2021

The USDCHF is in an interesting area. The pair have returned to the base of a rising channel formation. Technically this could be a nice entry for a buy position, however, we are long on the USDJPY and short on the AUDUSD therefore it may not be wise to go long here as well. Let’s track this to see how it unfolds.

Tuesday 27th April 2021

JPY is weakening across the board leading into the BoJ interest rate decision and statement at 1pm this afternoon. Interestingly, the AUDJPY is setting up a possible pennant formation inside a large rising wedge structure. A breakout to the upside would suggest a move towards the 86 resistance is on the cards. However, keep in mind the US stock market is becoming very toppy, therefore there is a risk of a large pullback soon which would push strength back into the JPY. In the short term, JPY weakness should continue to play out.

Monday 26th April 2021

The CADJPY is trading beneath a negative trend line resistance. The US stock market looks bullish, therefore we may see a risk-on sentiment meaning a weaker JPY. Watch out for any possible breakout to the upside here. Targets can be found at 87.10-87.50 initially.

Friday 23rd March 2021

 

TESLA is showing a potential bearish set up here. The overlapping nature of the recent structure suggests the stock price is in an ABC correction meaning price can revisit the 500-400 lows.

Wednesday 21st April 2021

The VIX has broken to the upside of the falling wedge structure as highlighted last week. This has created a risk-off sentiment in the market (in the short term), traders have moved into safe-haven currencies like the USD and JPY with global equities declining overnight.

Tuesday 13th April 2021

AUDCAD – Firstly, we are long already on the AUDJPY and AUDUSD so I wouldn’t recommend going long here just yet. Ideally, we would like to see a breakout above 0.9590 before committing to another AUD long trade. From a technical perspective, there is an inverted head and shoulders formation in play so we can use the 1.618 fib extension as a target if there is a breakout at 0.9740.

Friday 9th April 2021

Taking a look at the AUDJPY on the shorter term, it appears as though a bullish set up is forming. We will be looking to build into a long position once the 83.85 resistance is taken out, we will also be looking to add to the position once the 84.30 resistance is broken.

Thursday 8th April 2021

The AUDJPY is currently trading on a key trendline support. Looking at the formation at the top of this trend, there is possibly a head and shoulders formation in play. However it is too early to call a top in place. Equities are looking VERY high, and we are expecting a large correction over the coming weeks. We can not rule out a final push higher on the AUDJPY into the wedge formation before the breakdown.

TESLA

We decided not to go in for a long position on Tesla, purely due to the current formation on the price action. This overlapping structure can be considered a correction rather than impulsive. If this is a corrective structure it would suggest Tesla could be heading lower. Tesla is possibly ahead of the rest of the tech stocks, we are expecting a final push higher on the NASDAQ before a larger correction.

Thursday 1st April 2021

We have been watching Tesla for buying opportunities as the stock dropped roughly 40% from its most recent high. This appears to be huge discount and buyers may look to step back into the market. The question is has the correction finished. The breakout on the tech NASDAQ looks bullish from a technical perspective. Tesla has also broken out of a possible bull flag structure after bouncing on a key trend line support.

Friday 26th March 2021

GBPUSD – The pair broke down from the rising trend line support, however, we are yet to see a confirmation on the breakdown. I would like to see a retest and rejection. IF the GBPUSD breaks back above the trend line we can look for long opportunities in the market.

Wednesday 24th March 2021

EURNZD – The pair had a huge run higher breaking out of the falling wedge formation. VERY gutted I missed the trade on this one, well done to those who traded the pair on their own from the previous analysis. The EURNZD could be approaching a key resistance at 1.7000

Thursday 18th March 2021

The AUDCAD is testing a negative trend line resistance. The overall trend is bullish, therefore once a breakout occurs we may see a continuation to the upside. We are waiting for a breakout to potentially go long in the trading floor.

Tuesday 16th March 2021

GBPUSD – If the DXY breaks beneath the bearish level we can expect the GBPUSD to benefit. Technically, there is an inverted head and shoulders formation suggesting we could see a break above the neckline at 1.4000 over the coming weeks.

Monday 15th March 2021

EURNZD – weekly charts have set up a very interesting candlestick formation. There has been three weekly inside bar formations which is VERY rare. I guess this is potentially why the currency pair has been pretty frustrating to trade over the previous weeks. Price is compressing between a very tight range, and we see this being our HOT chart, there could be an explosion on the pair soon. The falling wedge formation suggests price could surge higher once the 1.6670 resistance is taken out.

EURNZD 4 Hour Charts are showing the pair trading at a key resistance zone. There is also a negative trend line resistance coming into play. We will be keeping a close eye on this pair for long opportunity once the falling wedge formation is broken to the upside.

Friday 12th March 2021

EURNZD

The EURNZD is still toying with the idea of a bullish breakout. For this to happen the market would need to turn towards a risk off sentiment (meaning a rally on the DXY). This pair has been very frustrating over the past couple of weeks as the price action has been trading in tight ranges.

Technically, a breakout above the bull flag structure would give the green light to trade towards the 1.6750 resistance zone.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

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Monday 27th June 2022

The DXY has set up a bearish divergence on the daily and weekly time frame, therefore we are remaining in the US dollar weakness camp for the next week. We are looking to build a second position on the EURUSD over the next couple of days. USDCAD is also approaching our take profit target. There should be a 3-wave decline minimum, if the US dollar sets up a 5-wave decline there will be a case for a top in the market. Equities and cryptos bounced on Friday which also aligns with a weaker DXY.

Tuesday 21st June 2022

The DXY turned sharply lower last week and has bounce fro the 103.50 support level. There is a gap up in the market at the 103.80 level, which will fill at some stage, therefore we are leaning towards a weaker DXY in the short term. The Dollar has had a relentless rally over the past couple of months and is potentially due a sizeable pull back. This aligns with a number of our Elliott wave counts that indicate a stronger AUDUSD and EURUSD over the next week. We are looking to re-enter on a number of trades that are based on a weaker dollar scenario. The weekly charts are indicating a bearish divergence which also suggests a possible topping formation. MACD is yet to cross over to the downside though.

Friday 10th June

Our view of the DXY reversing lower has not changed, however over night I took a short on the AUDUSD as I was expecting a final push to the upside. There is still a CME gap down in the market that is yet to fill around the 103.86 resistance zone so I am keeping that in mind. Our BUY STOP position on the GBPUSD is still valid and I may look to re-adjust the entry later today.

Wednesday 8th June 2022

The DXY initially broke out to the upside of the 102.50 resistance level before reversing sharply lower. I was expecting a larger rally to the upside for the counter trend and unfortunately this did not occur.  I will now be looking at currency pairs like the GBPUSD or the EURUSD for long trade setups. This is possibly the start of another decline for the DXY after the a-b-c corrective rally.

Monday 6th June

The longer-term chart is indicating a possible top is in place for the DXY, especially considering the MACD which is close to crossing over to the downside. There has been a series of bearish weekly candle formations showing selling pressure in the market. However, the DXY on the 1-hour chart is suggesting a short term bullish outlook. There is an inverse head and shoulders structure in play, which is indicating a move to the upside. I am aware of a longer-term bearish view, but over the next week, I am looking for a move into the 103 area. The strong US employment numbers on Friday night also support a stronger USD.

 

Tuesday 30th May 2022

The DXY is testing the top of the rising channel structure and there is also a falling wedge formation on the 1 hour time frame. Last week we were looking for a bounce higher, however I was too early into the market. I may look to re-load a DXY long position tonight leading into the US session, with the GBPUSD or EURUSD on the short trade watchlist.

Tuesday 24th May 2022

The DXY has possibly completed its first 5 wave decline inside a leading diagonal structure. A leading diagonal is a wedge structure that can occur at the start of a trend rather than at the end of a trend. I am looking for a counter-trend rally this week, specifically on either the USDJPY or USDCHF.

Friday 20th May 2022

The DXY turned lower as expected however I am cautious as the gap down in the price action did not fill. Gaps in the market are always filled at some point in time, this is due to liquidity providers holding the other side of the trade. They will try to move the market to fill the gap so they can offload their position. This is generally why there are sharp reversals once gaps are filled. I can count a 5 wave decline on the DXY which is a good sign of another 5 wave decline once an ABC correction has occurred. This is similar on the EURUSD, AUDUSD and GBPUSD. We will wait for a corrective rally before taking another DXY short trade.

The turn down on the USDCHF has been very sharp which indicates an end of a trend. I can only could a 3 wave rally so I am assuming the bullish move to the upside is not fully complete. There needs to be a period of consolidation to set up a wave 4 correction, once this has been completed we can look for the next long trade.

Wednesday 18th May

The DXY has broken down from a rising wedge structure and investors are most likely profit taking from these levels and rotating back into risk on assets. We are positioned well on the AUDUSD and the S&P500, I want to get a long trade into the GBPUSD and also an EU Index over the next 24 hours. Our first target for the DXY to the downside is a retest of the rising channel structure.

The USDCHF has finally broken down from the rising channel structure, and it appears as though a wave (iii) top is in place. The next long trade setup will come after a period of consolidation and an ABC correction or a triangle structure. We will let the price action unfold over the next few days.

Monday 9th May

Non-stop rallying on the DXY due to the FED raising interest rates and expectations of rate hikes over the coming months. Looking across the board, EURUSD, USDCAD and the AUDUSD all have further to move in the favour of the USD. Below is an interesting chart with the DXY against BTCUSD. The major bottom at $3,500 on BTCUSD also correlated with the major top on the DXY back at the start of the covid-19 pandemic. We have also seen the major low on the DXY correlate with the major top of BTCUSD at $65,500. Therefore, whilst the DXY is continuing its bullish move to the upside we can assume the crypto market will remain under pressure.

Saturday 9th April

Here we are, the DXY has hit the 100 resistance level. From an Elliott wave perspective there is a chance of a reversal on this pair over the coming weeks, especially considering the longer term count on the DXY and EURUSD. We will not jump the gun and short the DXY, we will need to see evidence of a reversal, and that would include an initial 5 wave decline. Sit tight!

Wednesday 6th April 2022

The DXY has finally began moving to the upside after the sideways corrective rally. Unfortunately our USDCAD long trade wa stopped out just prior to a move higher. Typical stop hunt scenario with the long wick down. Elliott wave does not tell us where the price action will end, however the 100 resistance will possibly have a reaction of some sort due to the whole number.

Tuesday 29th March 2022

The DXY is possibly approaching the end to a major ABC corrective counter trend rally. We are still expecting a final push to the upside and there are a number of high impact risk events this week that can provide the volatility. The US reports the next round of unemployment data and NFP numbers. Elliott wave theory aside, the DXY remains in a bullish trend and is trading above a key  trend line support.

Tuesday 22nd March

The DXY has set up another ABC side ways corrective structure so there is a chance for another high into the 100 resistance level before a major turn down. This also aligns with the sideways correction on the EURUSD, which is possibly breaking down from the rising trend line support. The EURUSD has also set up an ABC counter rally higher.

Thursday 17th March

We are still waiting for the DXY to complete the ABC corrective, counter-trend rally, and our count suggests a top is approaching for the DXY. The FED raised interest rates by the expected 0.25% this morning and the DXY has initially moved lower from the rate hike. There were some expectations of a larger interest rate hike, but this did not occur, along with the possible buy the rumour sell the fact scenario. There is also another fundamental news story in play putting downside pressure on the DXY. Saudi Arabia has announced they are in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales in the Chinese Yuan. These talks have accelerated over the past year, and decoupling from the PetroDollar will paint a bearish picture for the US.

Friday 4th March 2022

The DXY has hit resistance at 97.70. On the shorter term time frame we can see a rising wedge formation and a clear 5 wave structure to the upside. Therefore, there is a strong chance the DXY is reaching the final stages of its rise. We are watching for reversal trades on the EURUSD.

Monday 21st February

The DXY has possibly completed a 3 wave correction from the low of roughly 89.00. Both the USDJPY and EURUSD on the weekly time frame support a possible change in trend over the coming weeks. I am waiting for a long opportunity on the EURUSD   and watching the USDJPY closely. The only issue is the conflict in Europe which should see strength return to the USD as a safe haven currency.

Tuesday 15th February

There is a case for a possible top in on the DXY which would align with the EURUSD bullish reversal. However, the fundamentals do not align with a declining DXY which is putting a spanner in the works. Rising interest rates in the US and the possibility of war in Europe both favour a stronger USD. We are tracking a reversal on the DXY, however depending on which count you go for there is also a possibility of one more high to go. There is a bearish reversal level below the most recent swing low.

Wednesday 2nd February 2022

The DXY is facing some significant selling pressure as the market turns back into a risk-on sentiment. As you may know, we are expecting the DXY to break down from the rising channel structure and continue with its longer-term bearish trend, however, we were expecting one final push into the 97.73 resistance zone (didn’t quite reach the target last week). We are watching for shorting opportunities but do not want to rush into a position too early.

Monday 31st January

There was a strong rally into the safe-haven currencies last week with the USD and JPY benefiting from the move. We were positioned well in the market and took full advantage of the risk-off sentiment. We are still expecting another final move to the upside however the DXY could be approaching a top in the market soon. We will let the market settle down today and look to reposition leading into the NFP and unemployment data over the next couple of days.

Thursday 27th January

The DXY is running higher post-FED interest rate decision and press conference. The FED has signalled rate hike will occur sooner rather than later, indicating a March rate hike. They have also suggested the balance sheet will reduce significantly over the coming months. As expected the DXY is running higher and looks set to move into the 97.80 resistance. We have just executed a short position on the AUDUSD, and will look to get into a metals play or back into the EURUSD later today.

Monday 24th January

The DXY surged rapidly towards the end of last week due to the risk-off market sentiment. All risk assets are down, with a deep correction in the crypto market over the weekend. Technically speaking, global indices have more room to move to the downside which favours another rally here for the DXY. We are short on the EURUSD and are looking for second entry points to execute over the next day or two.

Monday 17th January

The DXY has had a strong bounce on the 94.64 support zone indicating a possible bullish reversal. We are watching the EURUSD and AUDUSD for another shorting opportunity. The EURUSD has had a nice rejection from a negative trend line resistance.

Friday 14th January

The past couple of days has seen a large dump on the DXY despite inflation coming out above expectations. It is too early to call a bearish reversal and a technical bounce higher is a possibility. We may revisit the EURUSD again as the pair is trading at a major resistance zone.

 

 

 

 

Monday 10th January

Despite the deep correction on the DXY, the bullish outlook still remains valid as long as the 95.57 support holds. Any break beneath this level will invalidate our setup. We need the DXY to pick up some momentum over the coming days. There are a number of economic risk events taking place this week including a speech from the FED chair, Jerome Powell, and a very important inflation reading from the US. The market expectation is another increase in inflation which will push the DXY higher due to inflation fears and interest rate hike expectations.

Thursday 6th January

The DXY has setup a bullish 5 wave rally followed by a classic ABC corrective structure, this indicates a new bullish move to the upside is underway. The moves came post FOMC minutes this morning. The statement indicates the FED is ready to raise interest rates sooner than the market initially expected and may look to reduce its balance sheet. The market is moving in a risk-off sentiment.

We are already short AUDUSD and GOLD, personally, I also like the EURUSD however we may not want to overexpose ourselves. I have given trade setups in today’s webinar on youtube for the EURUSD, if you are happy to take the trade good luck!

Tuesday 4th January

The DXY has potentially finished its recent corrective structure and appears to be setting up another move to the upside. Unfortunately, the DXY failed to break through the 95.56 support level like we initially hoped for. We are looking for shorting opportunities on either the AUDUSD or GOLD over the next 24 hours. Long term we are in the bearish camp, but based on the short term technical structure we are expecting a final push to the upside.

Wednesday 29th December

The DXY has been consolidating sideways for the past week with very little movement. Price action is becoming compressed inside the pennant formation so we are waiting for a breakout either way. There is a trend line support coming into play at the 96.15 level so there is a chance of a bounce higher from here. We just need to remain patient for the time being. A run higher would put some downside pressure on metals and the EURUSD.

Thursday 23rd December

The DXY is still trading inside a consolidation structure, it may also qualify as a bear flag. If you take a look at the USDCAD, USDCHF and USDJPY they are all suggesting a possible weaker USD over the coming days, therefore we are staying in the bearish camp for the DXY in the short term. This should play into our positions on USDCHF, GOLD and Crude Oil.

Thursday 16th December

Initially, we were playing with a triangle formation on the DXY but the spike higher has invalidated that particular setup. The structure is still bearish in the short term as it appears to be corrective and prices should decline over the next couple of days. The recent spike higher is also a lower high which indicates a possible change in trend. We are looking to play the bearish DXY setup on the AUDUSD and may move into another pair or commodity later today.

Monday 13th December

Despite the US inflation data rising again for the month of November, the USD weakened across the board. This is potentially due to the data coming out in line with the forecast. There is a triangle formation in play at the top of the channel structure so I am waiting for a breakout before committing to another USD position. AUDUSD and GBPUSD are looking attractive for long trade setups.

Wednesday 8th December

The DXY has been teasing a breakdown from the rising trendline support. Technically speaking there is a 5 wave decline which indicates a possible change in trend, or the start of an ABC correction. Either way, there should be at least one more leg down for the DXY. A decline in the DXY would indicate a decreased demand for the safe-haven currency which has been seen overnight as the VIX has rejected the top of the channel structure.

Monday 6th December

On Friday night the US reported mixed/conflicting economic data, the unemployment rate declined to 4.2% whereas the US NFP came out well below the forecast at only 235K. Average hourly earnings also came in below forecast at 0.3% MoM and 4.8% YoY. As you know the USD has been tough to trade, the AUDUSD and NZDUSD took a deep turn lower on Friday night despite the DXY holding its price at the 96.20 level. Technically speaking there are a couple of bearish reversal patterns so we will keep a close eye on this chart this week.

Friday 3rd December 2021

The DXY is back inside the rising channel structure and despite global equities moving lower due to the risk-off market sentiment, the DXY has actually declined in value. There has been a cross over on the MACD which is generally a reversal signal when found on the daily time frame.

The USDCHF created a fake breakout above the pennant structure and has since declined lower. We are looking to take a short position here if the USDCHF breaks down. It will depend on the DXY moving lower as well, this is one to keep your eyes on.

Tuesday 23rd November

The reappointment of Powell as the FED Chair is giving the DXY more fuel to the upside. Brainard was considered a DXY dove as she would have been more inclined to leave interest rates lower for a longer period of time. Currently, the market is pricing in a rate hike in June/July for the US of 25 basis points.  The DXY is trading above the rising channel structure and the MACD has broken out of a pennant structure. Most indicators are pointing higher for the time being. We will be sitting on the side lines on the DXY for a couple of days.

Thursday 18th November

The DXY is trading at the top end of the rising channel structure, so technically speaking a pullback scenario is on the cards. USDCAD is still trading higher so we will leave that pair for the time being. I am watching the EURUSD for a major trend reversal over the coming week.

Tuesday 16th November

The DXY has continued to the upside alongside metals, at some stage they should resume their usual inverse correlation. The MACD is trading inside a pennant which indicates momentum is not in a clear direction just yet, the highs are getting lower and the lows are getting higher each time. Once the MACD breaks out either above or below the pennant a trend should be formed. The DXY is approaching the 95.80 resistance so we will need to see how it reacts here before committing to a trade.

Friday 12th November

The DXY has broken out above the 94.80 resistance alongside metals which is strange. Both gold, silver and the DXY are running higher on inflation fears. Inflation in the US came out well above forecast at 6.2% on Thursday which indicates inflation is not as transitory as the FED has been suggesting. We are going to stay clear of the USD for the remainder of the week.

Monday 8th November

The DXY has set up a higher high (bullish), but also an inverted hammer candle formation (bearish). Last week we were completely on the wrong side of the DXY so we are going to wait for this price action to unfold further before committing to a trend direction. On the bearish side id like to see a move beneath the rising trendline support.

Friday 29th October

The DXY is moving lower as expected. The RSI and MACD are signalling a bearish turn to the downside which is playing into our long EURUSD and GBPUSD positions. Overnight the US GDP came in below forecast at 2%, which is the result we were hoping for. The US economy has gone from a 6.7% increase in GDP the month previous to a 2% rise in GDP in last nights result. The sharp decrease in economic output is signalling trouble in the US economy due to supply chain bottlenecks and surging inflation. This decrease in GDP output will also put upside pressure on inflation, if you cast your minds back to last weeks GOLD email, the higher inflation runs whilst rates remain the same, the further “real rates” move into the negative. This is setting up a bullish outlook for metals, and we will be looking to buy the dips on SILVER and GOLD.

Monday 25th October

No significant change on the DXY. The weekly structure is looking bearish and pairs like the EURUSD are looking bullish. However, the USDCAD also looks bullish from a technical perspective so there are a couple of conflicting setups. Gold and silver look bullish in the weekly time frame so we will need to monitor the DXY moving forward. There needs to be follow-through to the downside on the DXY to play into our long metal setups. Later this week the US reports the next round of GDP which is expected to be a 2.8% increase from a 6.8% rise last month. Any result below 2.8% should result in a bearish DXY scenario.

Thursday 21st October

The DXY has continued its decline possibly due to the FED Governor comments regarding interest rates. There has been some jawboning in play, which is where officials play down the strength of a currency. Christopher Waller has played down rising interest rate questions, suggesting they are still some way off. This has put downside pressure on the USD and is helping our SILVER long trade. We are looking to possibly get back into a DXY short play, either the NZDUSD or the AUDUSD are options. US equities have continued to the upside and are just shy of record highs suggesting the market is very much risk on.

Monday 18th October

The DXY came off its highs as expected last week, however, we can not confirm a bearish reversal just yet. There is a bearish divergence coming into play adding weight to the bearish sentiment. On one hand, inflation is continuing to the upside adding pressure on the FED to continue with their plan to begin bond tapering next month, which is bullish for the USD. On the other hand, once supply chain restrictions ease, inflation should come down which would reduce the pressure to begin bond tapering. There has been an inverse correlation between the DXY and the stock market since the covid-19 pandemic, and this relationship continued on Friday with the US stock market rallying to the upside whilst the DXY declined. The US government has raised the debt ceiling temporarily and issues in China appears to be contained, for the time being, these are both positive for the stock market. I want to let the market play out of the next 24 hours before making a decision on the next USD trade setup. We will let our EURUSD trade run.

Wednesday 6th October

The DXY is a tricky one to call at the moment as it is resting on the new 93.60 support zone. Looking across the board the JPY cross pairs are moving in a risk-on sentiment, additionally, the US stock market looks ready for a bounce higher (check the NASDAQ chart in indices tab). This indicates a possible decline in the DXY index as the USD moves invertedly to equities. However, technically the DXY is still above resistance which indicates bulls are still in control for the time being. IF the DXY breaks down beneath 93.60 we can look to go long on the AUDUSD or EURUSD.

Friday 1st October

The inverse relationship between the USD and risk assets has remained consistent over the past couple of weeks. The USD has rallied into the 94.60 resistance as equity prices declined. Based on the bullish technical structure on gold I am watching for a possible reversal on the DXY soon. The US stock market has remained under pressure this week and at some stage there could be a corrective rally. Interestingly, the AUDUSD and GOLD has not set up a lower low meaning they could still be in a bullish trend. Despite the risk-off rally, the JPY has also weakened across the board which is very uncommon. Usually, pairs like the AUDJPY will come under pressure, however, the AUDJPY actually looks bullish. I am watching the AUDJPY for another long trade today.

Tuesday 28th September

The DXY is moving closer to the invalidation level which would be the headline at 93.72. With all the uncertainty in the market at the moment, we can assume the demand for the USD is relatively high, however, I would not look to buy the USD unless the headline resistance is taken out. Just a waiting game on the USD front for the time being.

Tuesday 21st September

Technically, the DXY has set up a shooting start reversal candlestick formation on the daily chart. We will remain neutral on the DXY unless a move towards the 93.70 resistance occurs, OR if the DXY breaks back into the head and shoulders structure – which would indicate the H&S bearish scenario is still in play. This actually aligns very nicely with our bullish scenario for gold. We are watching gold for a long trade today.

Thursday 16th September

I wanted to highlight a couple of head and shoulder formations that have set up a bearish move on the DXY previously. The DXY has been very choppy this week, we were expecting a clean move towards the shoulder line at 93.20 which has not occurred. However, H&S structures sometimes do not create a symmetrical setup, so we need to be aware of a move to the downside over the coming weeks. If this does happen, it would also indicate a top in the stock market is not in place just yet. For a top to be in place there would need to be a significant move to the upside for the USD which looks unlikely at the moment due to this bearish technical pattern.

Tuesday 14th September

There are two possible scenarios here on the DXY. To help our current positions we need the DXY to rally into the 93.10 resistance which would also indicate a further risk-off move in the market. However, we do need to be aware of the larger head and shoulders structure which suggests a large move to the downside for the USD. We will be preparing a trade on the EURUSD for the bearish DXY scenario later this evening.

DXY Bearish Scenario

Monday 13th September

The bull flag breakout and inverted head and shoulders structure are both indicating a move to the upside. This would suggest a further risk-off move in the market as generally the USD and equities move in opposite directions. We may need to have a re-shuffle on some positions as the JPY could also strengthen alongside the USD. I will keep you posted later this afternoon, we are either tracking the USDCAD, NZDUSD or AUDUSD for a possible trade setup.

Wednesday 8th September

The DXY broke out of the negative trend line resistance and appears to be setting up a possible head and shoulders structure. We were initially expecting the DXY to reach the 91.80 support however that looks less likely now. We will stay long on the USD until the right shoulder has formed. The whole market appears to be moving in line with the DXY – gold has broken down and appears to be setting up an inverted head and shoulders formation along with the EURUSD.

Monday 6th September

The DXY is still in decline coming out of the NFP miss on Friday night which played perfectly into our long gold trade. There is a possible corrective bounce due soon on the DXY, major support is coming into play at the 91.80-91.50 level.

Friday 3rd September

There has been a clean breakdown from the 92.40 support zone and appears to be moving towards the 91.80 level leading into tonights NFP and unemployment report. The weakening DXY should play into our commodity long trades.

Wednesday 1st September

The DXY has found support at the 92.50 region. Technically, there is a possible head and shoulders setting up, which would mean a corrective rally on the USD before a larger decline. If the DXY reaches the 92.30 resistance we can look to buy assets like gold or the EURUSD. We will need to see how this plays out over the coming days. The ideal scenario would be a DXY rally into the NFP and unemployment data on Friday night before a big move lower.

Monday 30th August

The DXY dumped on Friday as expected. The FED Chair Jerome Powell indicated tapering should occur by the end of 2021, however, he also stated interest rates will remain near record lows for the foreseeable future. If you cast your minds back to 2018, the FED decided to raise interest rates and the market didn’t take the news very well, with a large sell-off across risk assets. The FED are now very cautious with interest rates, so although they are planning to dial back bond purchases, interest rates are another question. This news pushed the DXY down which has played into our USDCAD short position. This week the US Non-Fam Payroll on Friday will be another blockbuster announcement.

Wednesday 25th August

The DXY has broken down from the rising wedge structure suggesting bearish pressure is coming into play, or traders are trimming down their long positions prior to the Jackson Hole meeting which begins tomorrow. If the DXY breaks beneath the 92.20 support (previous pennant formation) we can assume the bearish trend is back. Looking across the board, EURUSD, GBPUSD and the NZDUSD all look relatively bullish along with GOLD.

Monday 23rd August

DXY moved to the upside throughout last week due to a number of negative fundamentals resulting in a risk-off market sentiment. We are expecting volatility to pick up towards the end of the week as the Jackson Hole meeting becomes the main focus. We will need to see how the market is positioned on Thursday to make a more informed decision. Generally, the FED are supportive of the market, therefore I wouldn’t be surprised if they try to play down the DXY. There has been a bullish breakout of the pennant, but there is also a possible rising wedge. Let’s see how this unfolds over the coming days.

Tuesday 17th August

Tricky one on the DXY, the large pullback looks impulsive to the downside but there are a number of technical support lines coming into play. Interestingly, the DXY did not rally alongside the JPY overnight. On the shorter-term time frame, there is also a possible bear flag structure. We will keep an eye out for further weakness coming into play this week.

Monday 9th August

Nice run on the DXY from Fridays NFP and unemployment data. Expectations that the FED will begin bond tapering are rising due to the strong economic data. Ideally we will no see the DXY continue towards the 93.40 resistance. We will keep a close eye on the DXY over the next couple of days.

Thursday 5th August 2021

The DXY has found support at 91.50. We have the US Non-Fram Payroll and unemployment data due on Friday night. Many analysts are forecast a 1 million result for the NFP meaning the DXY could rally into the announcement over the coming days. The labour market will be a key driver of the FED monetary policy, if more jobs are created there is a possibility of bond tapering leading into the Jackson hole FED meeting later this month. The weekly charts do look rather bullish, the MACD is beginning to pulse to the upside.

Tuesday 3rd August 2021

The DXY has bounced a previous support zone at 91.90.  Although the overall trend is still bearish there is a possible short term bounce which we are currently trading on the USDCAD. On the one hand, the structure looks bearish due to the previous MACD cross over and bearish divergence on the RSI, however, from a fundamental perspective, there are a number of risk events taking place that could result in a large risk-off market sentiment. Looking at US indices they are at ridiculous valuations inside sharp rising wedge structures, which indicates a reversal is around the corner. If the US stock market corrects lower the DXY will no doubt rally higher due to the safe-haven appeal. So we need to be prepared for both scenarios.

Friday 30th July 2021

The DXY has created a clean breakdown from the rising wedge structure as anticipated playing into our positions. There is a possibility of a bounce soon, however, I am expecting the bounce to be a correction rather than an impulsive move higher. This should provide us with an opportunity to short the DXY from a higher entry point. From a technical perspective, there could be a head and shoulders formation setting up as this is consistent with the USDCAD and the EURUSD.

Wednesday 28th July 2021

Finally, the DXY has seen a breakdown from the never-ending rising wedge structure. Interestingly, the DXY has also broken back down inside the triangle structure. We still need to be aware of a possible rally to the upside as the FED Chair Jerome Powell is due to talk over the coming days alongside the US interest rate decision and statement. Once our trades are clear in the green we can move the SL to breakeven.

Monday 26th July 2021

The DXY has broken down from the rising trend line support, however, the price action is still inside the rising wedge structure. RSI and MACD are both signalling a bearish reversal opportunity. There are a number of US fundamental events taking place this week that will result in volatility across all USD pairs. We will maintain our EURUSD long trade for the time being.

Thursday 22nd July 2021

The DXY is still trading inside the rising wedge structure, also known as an ending diagonal structure. This is generally a reversal structure but clearly too early to call. Looking at the candle formations we can see a bearish engulfing candle which has also set up a reversal opportunity previously. RSI is showing a bearish divergence. The trade we would like to take is a EURUSD long once the breakdown is confirmed. Gold long trade is also on the cards.

Tuesday 20th July 2021

The DXY is teasing a breakout to the upside, so want to be prepared for that. If there is a continuation to the upside expect the risk-off sentiment to continue. Fears of rising interest rates/inflation are increasing along with increased global covid19 infections. This is resulting in a move into the USD. 93.40 and 94.40 will be the next resistance zones.

Monday 19th July 2021

The DXY is at a make or break situation. A breakout to the upside will suggest a risk-off scenario in the markets with stocks and equities moving lower. On the other hand, if the DXY breaks down from the rising wedge structure we can expect to see a recovery in risk assets and metals.

Friday 16th July 2021

The DXY has been very tricky to predict over the past couple of weeks. Technically it looks great for a sell but the market is not playing ball. There has been a very choppy price action which has been putting pressure on all USD pairs. Obviously, we need to remain unbiased in terms of what we want to happen and trade what we see. There is still a pennant formation on the daily time frame which is providing resistance. All technicals are suggesting a bearish reversal is coming. If anyone has any other analysis with a bullish picture please share!

Tuesday 19th July 2021

The DXY has broken down from the rising wedge structure which should play into our EURUSD long trade. RSI is showing a bearish divergence suggesting the DXY will continue to move lower.

Friday 9th July 2021

The DXY is trading at the upper level of a possible triangle formation. The rally on the DXY has resulted in a pull back in the stock market and a move into safe haven currencies like the JPY. On the shorter-term time frame, the DXY has a possible rising wedge structure which can indicate a reversal opportunity. IF the DXY breaks down from the rising wedge it will play into our long silver play.

Tuesday 29th June 2021

The 200-day moving average is providing support for the DXY. There has also been a possible bull flag breakout which suggests bulls are in control. US Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment data are due on Friday night which will provide volatility on all USD pairings.

Friday 25th June 2021

The DXY is breaking to the upside of the bull flag structure as expected. We may enter the EURUSD slightly earlier to our SELL STOP level to get a better entry point. I will keep you posted over the next couple of hours. A rally on the USD may result in a risk-off market sentiment during tonights US session.

Wednesday 23rd June 2021

The DXY is correcting lower after the recent breakout from the negative trendline resistance. This appears to be in only 3 waves, therefore we have to consider this as a correction rather than a trend. If the 92.12 resistance is taken out we can expect another move to the upside. Support can be found at 91.35.

 

Thursday 17th June

The DXY surged based on multiple FED members bringing forward their interest rate hike projections to 2023. The DXY is approaching a major resistance level, which could be a technical head and shoulders formation. The FED maintained their view that inflation is going to be transitory and they would need to see unemployment fall before considering any rate hikes. However, the tone is beginning to become more bullish. The negative trend line resistance is coming into play at the same resistance zone. We will need to see a breakout before considering going long on the USD.

Tuesday 15th June 2021

The sharp rise on the DXY has thrown a spanner in the works. However, it is still a lower high on the 1-hour time frame. We need to see the price action unfold before looking to reenter on the USD. Due to the overlapping structure, I am still on the side of a corrective rise rather than a bullish trend.

Thursday 10th June 2021

The DXY is in consolidation mode leading into tonights CPI data release. We can count three waves as a correction as they are overlapping in nature, so in theory the DXY should be moving lower, we just need some fundamental stimulus to push the index to the downside.

Monday 7th June 2021

The DXY is back down retesting the pennant formation trend line. On Friday we were expecting a rise towards the 1.618% FIB extension which did not play out. All the technical were suggesting further upside. We are going to remain cautious on the USD leading into this week. The long term bearish trend is still intact.

Thursday 3rd June 2021

The DXY reversed overnight and the EURUSD moved back to breakeven. The USD has been consolidating sideways for a couple of weeks now making it difficult to predict the correct direction. There are a number of high impact data points coming from the US tonight and tomorrow which should provide a clearer picture.

Tuesday 1st June 2021

The DXY broke out of the falling wedge structure last week and has possibly set up a five-wave move higher. This tends to be a bullish structure suggesting there will be another 5 wave rise after a correction. If the DXY breaks the 89.50 support then bears are in control. A move above 90.15 will provide an opportunity to go short on the EURUSD.

Wednesday 26th May 2021

The DXY is showing a bullish reversal opportunity as there is a bullish divergence on the RSI alongside a falling wedge structure. We are already on the AUDUSD and NZDUSD short side, therefore I would like to see a breakout to the upside before entering another position. GBPUSD SHORT is on my watch list.

Monday 24th May 2021

The DXY is still trading inside the falling wedge/ending diagonal formation. This week we will be focusing on a DXY breakout which will play into our NZDUSD and AUDUSD short positions. Furthermore, if the DXY breaks out we will be looking to add a SHORT position on the GBPUSD. This will also indicate a possible risk-off sentiment in the market which could see stocks move lower.

Friday 21st May 2021

The DXY reversed overnight and is trading between a falling wedge structure, this comes as the global stock market recovered. The recovery is not yet confirmed in the stock market, and could well be a dead cat bounce. We are positioned on the long side of the DXY therefore we need to see some strength coming back into play during tonights US session, which would mean another risk-off play in the market.

Wednesday 19th May 2021

DXY has hit the support zone highlighted yesterday, ideally, I would like to see a rally from support which would play into our AUDUSD short position. This will also provide an opportunity to go long on the USDCAD on the breakout. Let’s see how the DXY reacts from here.

Tuesday 18th May 2021

The DXY is moving lower towards the 89.72 support zone suggesting there is a possibility of further weakness coming on the USD. We still remain on the bullish side for the USDJPY based on JPY weakness.

 

Wednesday 5th May 2021

The DXY has moved towards the 91.40 resistance again. From here we are watching for a move back towards the 90.90 support, which could provide an opportunity to go long. This would play into the EURUSD short opportunity highlighted in the EURUSD tab.

Tuesday 4th May 2021

The DXY has finally broken to the upside of the falling channel structure. The USD is now testing the 90.90 support which could be setting up an inverted head and shoulders formation. We may look to trade a stronger USD today, possibly looking at the USDCAD or EURUSD.

Tuesday 27th April 2021

The DXY is trading on the crucial 38% FIB retracement. The falling channel formation is still in tact and looks very similar to the USDJPY. The AUDUSD 5 waves run looks complete, along with the EURUSD so I am anticipating a rotation back into the USD in the near future. We will be looking to buy the USD if a breakout to the upside of the channel occurs. The FED interest rate decision and statement will no doubt result in some volatility over the coming days.

Monday 26th April 2021

The DXY has moved lower and has maintained its position underneath the negative trend line resistance. Keep in mind a weaker USD means risk ON and a stronger USD means risk off. The EUR is surging higher due to the weaker greenback. Our Elliott wave count on the DXY appears to be tracking well at the moment but there has not been any significant pullback yet. We will look to maintain our AUDUSD long position whilst the DXY trades beneath the negative trend line.

Friday 23rd April 2021

The DXY is testing the negative trend line resistance. The rise in the USD has resulted in a decline across risk assets from crypto to equities. If the DXY breaks to the upside here we can expect further downside on US stocks along with currency pairs like the AUDUSD, NZDUSD and EURUSD. A breakout to the upside may also provide an opportunity to go long on the USDCAD.

Wednesday 21st April 2021

The USD index has broken down lower than we initially anticipated this week. However, the recent rise has worked into our USDCAD buy position. Pairs like the EURUSD, AUDUSD also look ready for a pullback over the coming days so we are expecting a DXY rise from here.

Thursday 15th April 2021

The DXY is approaching support at the 91.35 zone just as the SP500 breaks down from the rising wedge formation. If there is a rally on the USD back towards the 92.45 resistance we can expect further downside on risk assets (US equities).

 

 

Tuesday 13th April 2021

The DXY is coming lower as expected. Be aware of a short term spike above the negative trend line. Tonight the US reports the next round of CPI data (a measure of inflation). IF the result comes in above the forecast there could be a spike in the DXY creating a risk-off sentiment in the market. We will be looking to play this later in the trading floor, possibly taking a look at the USDCAD.

Tuesday 6th April 2021

The DXY is moving lower as the risk-on sentiment kicks off the week. Our positions on the GBPUSD and AUDUSD are looking great so far for a continuation higher. Ideally, we will see the DXY break down from the rising wedge/triangle formation. We are yet to see if this rally has finished. The key level to look out for is the 91.50 support. Once this level is broken to the downside we can consider a new low coming into play for the USD index.

Thursday 1st April 2021

The DXY has created an over throw on the technical resistance line. Our ideal scenario would be for the USD to weaken from this level breaking down from the rising wedge formation. We need to see a breakdown back under 93.00 to confirm our scenario 1. However, we also need to be aware of a breakout above the negative trend line resistance. If there is a breakout then the USDCAD will be our long position going forward.

Tuesday 30th March 2021

No change on the DXY just yet, however, we are looking for a reversal opportunity. Ideally, we would see the DXY break down from the rising wedge formation over the course of this week. A weaker USD will no doubt be bullish for the rest of the market. The 93.20 resistance is our crucial level that must hold. A break to the upside would suggest a change in trend on the DXY with a continuation to the upside.

Friday 26th March 2021

The DXY continued its move higher overnight and is approaching a key resistance zone at 93.20. For the bearish scenario to play out we will need to see the DXY reject and breakdown from the rising triangle formation. A break above could see the index move towards 94.50. A breakout to the upside would suggest a top is in place for the US stock market and a risk off play will take place. Lets see how this plays out throughout the US session tonight.

Wednesday 24th March 2021

The DXY has strengthened from the crucial support at 91.40. We are now expecting the USD to continue strengthening for a final leg higher. Targets can be found at the 93.20 resistance. This may also mean the risk-off sentiment will continue in the short term.

Monday 22nd March 2021

The DXY had a large reversal from the crucial support zone at 91.40 last week. The market is ignoring the FED’s comments and expectations as the DXY continues to climb. Currently we are waiting for either a break above the 92.20 resistance to go long on the USD, or a break below the 91.40 support. If the DXY turns bearish the EURUSD will be our long trade idea, if the DXY turns bullish then silver will be our short trade.

Thursday 18th March 2021

The DXY has broken down from the bear flag structure and is trading on a crucial support zone. Looking across the market including equities and USD related currency pairs, everything appears to be riding on the DXY. If the USD breaks down from this zone we can expect a strong risk-on move across the market. ALL risk assets including cryptos will benefit from that. We are looking to buy into the EURUSD shortly.

 

Monday 15th March 2021

The 1-hour charts are showing a potential bull flag breakout, however, we are yet to be convinced of a stronger USD, just yet. As highlighted on Friday, the 91.40 region acted as a key support zone. This level is yet to be breached, once the DXY breaks down we will have the confidence to go short on the USD. For the time being we will maintain out current position on the USDJPY which is moving higher based on a weaker JPY.

 

Friday 12th March 2021

The DXY has declined to the key zone we highlighted in yesterdays members video. The market is now at a cross roads. If the DXY breaks down from this zone expect the global stock markets to continue rallying higher as this would suggest the USD will continue towards new lows at the 89-88 region.

However, if there is a bounce from this zone we could be set for one more rally on the DXY which will create another sizeable pull back on risk assets before the next rally. See today’s SP500 chart for a possible risk off scenario.

Thursday 11th March 2021

The USD index is showing signs of a potential corrective structure higher, meaning this rally is possibly only a correction and not an impulsive move. If the 91.36 support zone is breached it will put the bears back in control, and we will be looking to trade the index back down to the swing lows at 89.40.

Elliott Wave theory suggests corrective structures can be a 3-3-3 structure or a 5-3-5 structure. Below, we can see a 3-3-3 structure, we just need to see a breach of the 91.30 to confirm the USD will be heading lower.

USDJPY

By |


Monday 27th June 2022

Technically speaking the USDJPY has set up a bearish head and shoulders structure alongside a bear flag formation. We are watching for a breakdown to take a possible trade setup. Our AUDJPY short trade was taken out at breakeven on Friday night, we are looking to revisit a JPY pair this week when the time is right. The JPY reversal will be a huge play over the coming weeks, especially when the BoJ allows rates to rise.

Friday 10th June

Extreme readings on the USDJPY however far too risky to short just yet. The weekly charts are showing a major resistance zone coming into play at the 136 level. I am keeping a close eye on the MACD and RSI for signs of a bearish divergence. All JPY pairs have reached huge highs, and generally speaking after a major spike there can be a severe reversal. We are short the AUDJPY for now, I am watching other pairs for similar trade setups.

Tuesday 24th May

After being stopped out on the pip yesterday, I am looking to reload the same position as there has been a higher low indicating a short term change in trend. I am expecting an ABC counter-trend rally into the 129.30 resistance zone, which may set up the next selling opportunity.

Monday 16th May

There was an initial breakdown on the USDJPY last week alongside all JPY pairs as the market traded in a risk-off sentiment. There has been a breakdown from the rising trendline support as well as a bearish divergence. We are yet to see if there is going to be any follow-through over the next week. I don’t see any obvious trading opportunity on this pair, as we are looking for a risk-on market sentiment this week, it generally indicates a weaker JPY. We will let the price action unfold over the next couple of days. Great trade on the EURJPY last week though!

Wednesday 11th May

The USDJPY is reaching extreme overbought conditions on the RSI daily chart. This has created reversal trade opportunities previously. There has also been a pin bar candle formation on the daily chart which indicates indecision or a reversal opportunity. We are watching for a breakdown from the rising trend line support for a short trade setup.

Saturday 9th April

We have let the USDJPY unfold over the past month as it has exploded to the upside despite the war in Europe and rising interest rate fears. The JPY is generally the number one safe haven currency but that typical scenario has not played out. The USDJPY has hit the 125 resistance zone, and we are watching for a reversal opportunity over the next trading week. Keep an eye on the rising trend line support in red at the top of the trend, any breakdown from here could provide a great short trade setup.

Monday 7th March

The USDJPY has possibly reached a top of a bullish trend with the weekly charts indicating a bearish divergence. This aligns with the bullish breakout on gold, the USDJPY and gold tend to have an inverse correlation. We are watching for shorting opportunities over the next 24 hours. The JPY should be in high demand due to the ongoing conflict in Europe. 115.80 appears to be a short term cap/resistance zone.

Monday 21st February

The USDJPY is on our watchlist for a shorting opportunity, which also aligns with our AUDJPY position. The CADJPY (check bonus charts) also looks set for a bearish move to the downside. Looking at the fundamentals, the JPY should see a period of strengthening due to the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Technically speaking there has been a double top, a bear flag breakdown and a bearish divergence on the MACD. This ticks the box for a short trade.

Monday 10th January

USDJPY is still trading higher and the recent correction appears to be in a triangle formation. Triangles can only occur in wave B or wave 4, therefore the recent correction appears to be just a short term pullback. We may look to go long at the 115.92 level, however, it may only have a short distance to travel to the upside. We will keep this on our radar this week for a trading opportunity.

Tuesday 4th January

The USDJPY is moving close to invalidating the bearish head and shoulders formation, any high above the 115.53 resistance will indicate a continuation to the upside. Equities are trading near or at record highs which decreases the demand for the JPY whilst the DXY is also maintaining its strength – these both indicate a continuation to the upside here. We will let this continue to play out over the next couple of days.

Wednesday 29th December

The USDJPY is moving close to the invalidation level for the head and shoulders formation at 115.56. A move lower will indicate a risk off move in the market which is a possibility due to the negative fundamentals in the media at the moment. We are watching JPY pairs for an indication of a sell opportunity.

Thursday 23rd December

There has been no real significant change on the USDJPY, however the head and shoulders structure is still in play. The USDCAD and USDCHF all suggest a weaker DXY over the coming days, so we are watching for an opportunity to go short. I would prefer the USDCAD though as equities are recovering and the JPY weakened further especially against the AUD overnight. But we will see how the market is trading later this evening.

Monday 20th December

All JPY pairs moved lower on Friday night alongside US equities. The USDJPY is on our watch list for a possible shorting opportunity as there is a head and shoulders formation setting up. This is similar to the AUDJPY which we activated earlier this morning. I will keep you posted on any setup that we take on this pair over the next couple of days.

Thursday 9th December

The USDJPY is creeping higher however there is a possible head and shoulders structure in play. We are focusing on the USDCHF and the USDCAD for the time being but I am keeping a close eye on this pair in case the correct setup presents itself.

Friday 3rd December

There is a pennant structure on the USDJPY at the 113 support zone. The MACD is showing a bullish divergence so there is a chance of a breakout to the upside. The week has been non-stop risk-off with the JPY strengthening across all major pairs. However, the majority of JPY pairs look ready for a technical move higher during today/tonight’s trading session. I wouldn’t be surprise if equities ran higher along with JPY pairs over the next 24 hours.

Tuesday 16th November

The recent pullback on the USDJPY looks corrective so we are waiting for either a move above 114.40 or a pullback towards support at 113.50 to enter a long position. A move towards the 113.50 support would set up an inverted head and shoulders formation.

Friday 12th November

The USDJPY appears to be testing a negative trend line on the 1 hour charts, a breakout above the negative trend line could indicate a move towards the 115.60 resistance. I am cautious to buy this pair as it is running higher with gold prices, generally there is an inverse correlation between the USDJPY and GOLD.

Monday 8th November

The USDJPY is consolidating at the 114.00 resistance. We can see a cross over on the MACD on the daily chart which indicates a bearish reversal. If the USDJPY declines from this peak it will play into the long gold bias. We are not too interested in shorting here just yet, ill keep you posted if we look to enter a trade.

Monday 25th October

There has been some profit-taking at this major resistance zone and the USDJPY has come off its peak. We do not see a trade set up here just yet, BUT the inverse correlation between GOLD and the USDJPY is in play. If the USDJPY continues its decline to the downside it will play into our long gold trade.

Monday 18th October

The USDJPY has reached a major resistance at 114.10. This level has been used to short the market on a number of occasions previously. We will monitor this pair closely, however, if the USDJPY takes a turn lower we will focus on a long GOLD trade rather than short this market. We can also see the pair reaching an overbought condition.

Friday 1st October

The UDJPY had a large surge out of the complex triangle formation as expected. There is possibly a head and shoulders formation setting up at the peak which would indicate a pullback is on the cards. This would also play into the long bias for gold. I am not interested in shorting this one, we will see how it unfolds over the next couple of days.

Tuesday 14th September

I have attached the USDCHF and USDJPY below. The USDCHF is on track for a continuation to the upside. We have locked in at least a 55 pip win. The USDJPY has been tricky after breaking back down inside the pennant formation. We would need to see the DXY rally to the upside to help the position move into the green. IF the USDCHF moves back to stop loss in profit we will look to close out the USDJPY early.

Wednesday 8th September

The USDJPY is breaking out of the triangle formation so we should see the price continue above the 110.60 neckline of the inverted head and shoulders. The USDJPY and GOLD have an inverse correlation meaning gold should continue its downward trend in the short term if the USDJPY moves to the upside.

Friday 3rd September

I haven’t updated the USDJPY for a while as the pair is trading inside a pennant structure. All other majors are moving higher against the JPY due to the risk on market sentiment. We need to remain on the sidelines on this pair for the time being.

Thursday 5th August 2021

A very strong breakout play on the USDJPY. If the USDJPY continues to the upside we will most likely see metals decline. This is supportive of a stronger USD over the coming sessions, especially leading into the Friday night US Non-Farm and unemployment data. The Non-Farm payroll has a very high number on the forecast, with some analysts touting a 1 million result. Although the market has not seen the data yet we may see the event price into the DXY over the next couple of days.

Friday 30th July 2021

The inverse head and shoulders formation could still be in play. I am not looking to trade this just yet unless there is a sharp turn on the DXY.  This would also mean lower gold prices. We will keep this in the back pocket if the market turns tonight.

Wednesday 28th July 2021

The USDJPY is back down retesting the broken negative trend line. There is a possible inverted head and shoulders formation in play which is a bullish structure. If this plays out the USDJPY could see a rise back towards the 111.00 level initially. I am prepping a trade on the AUDJPY which is my preferred trade against the JPY. I will keep you posted today once ready to execute.

Thursday 22nd July 2021

The USDJPY has broken above a negative trend line resistance, however, the structure looks like a head and shoulders formation. A break above the 110.30 resistance will suggest a bullish move to the upside playing into the JPY weakness. Keep in mind, if the DXY breaks down from the rising wedge structure the head and shoulders short setup could play out.

Thursday 8th July 2021

Most technicals are turning bearish for the USDJPY. The ideal sell zone is at 111.10 which would set up a head and shoulders formation. If the USDJPY moves lower, gold and silver should rally based on the inverse correlation. MACD has crossed over alongside a bearish divergence on the RSI.

Tuesday 6th July 2021

The USDJPY is still trading inside the rising channel structure. Gold and silver both have bullish technical structures, which suggest the USDJPY could move to the downside due to the inverse correlation. We are focusing on metals this week, however, if there is a break to the downside there could be a short opportunity here.

Tuesday 29th June 2021

The USDJPY is edging lower after reaching the 111.00 resistance. The JPY appears to be strengthening across most pairs, however, we are yet to see if this is just a pullback in the market.

Friday 25th June 2021

The USDJPY is seeing further upside pressure due to the weakness of the JPY. There is a possibility of a breakout here, however, we prefer to look at other JPY crosses due to better entry points. We may look to re-enter the AUDJPY but I would like to see a correction first.

Wednesday 23rd June 2021

The USDJPY is approaching a key resistance zone at the 111.00 level. JPY appears to be weakening across the board which is playing into our AUDJPY long trade. On Friday, the BoJ kept its super-easy monetary policy unchanged, which is diverging from the FED who are beginning to take a more hawkish approach. The BoJ maintained its negative interest rate and held steady on the quantitative easing program. Therefore, there is a fundamental divergence occurring in central bank policy. USDJPY should continue to rise, as long as there are no risk events that result in a RISK OFF market sentiment. For now, there are no entry points into this trade, so we will maintain the AUDJPY position.

 

Monday 21st June 2021

The USDJPY is yet to form a new high despite the DXY breaking out of a negative trend line resistance. This will be due to the JPY strength over recent sessions. There is a possible bear flag formation in play. If risk assets continue to the downside we may see further strength in all JPY pairs.

Thursday 10th June 2021

We could be on here for the USDJPY as there appears to have been an abc correction from the impulsive move down. I am weighing up a SELL STOP at 109.20 or a SELL LIMIT at 109.80. I will keep you posted tonight. We already have two short USD trades on and a long gold trade pending, therefore we will need to be cautious with this USD short trade.

Tuesday 8th June 2021

The USDJPY has declined in 5 sub-waves, therefore once a correction higher has completed in 3 waves we can look to go short expecting another 5 wave decline. Target zones can be found at 108.40-107.60. I will keep you posted once we take a position.

 

Monday 7th June 2021

The USDJPY has been a tricky one of late as well. In theory, with gold moving higher the USDJPY should be pushing to the downside due to the inverse correlation between gold and the USD. Taking a look at the recent price action we can see a number of overlapping structures which suggests the formation is NOT bullish. Therefore, we must consider the USDJPY is in a corrective structure and may see a deeper correction. I am keeping an eye on this pair for a selling opportunity.

Monday 24th May 2021

The USDJPY didn’t provide the correct bullish move on Friday for the entry, however, the set-up will still remain valid if the price breaks 109.30. We will maintain our USDJPY pending order for the time being.

Friday 21st May 2021

The USDJPY is setting up a possible inverted head and shoulders on the 15 minute time frame. Again, the pair is trading at the lower end of the base channel which could provide an entry for a long trade. This is a set-up we will look at later leading into the EU open at 5-6pm anticipating a move towards 111.00.

Wednesday 19th May 2021

No significant change on the USDJPY, the pair is currently trading on the key trend line support. We are waiting for a breakout to the upside of the bull flag structure before we look to enter the position. There is a possibility of lowering our entry point again, I will keep you posted.

Tuesday 18th May 2021

No real change here on the USDJPY from yesterday’s trade setup. The pair is still trading inside a possible bull flag formation, therefore we will wait for a breakout before entering on the long side.

Friday 30th April 2021

Really pleased with the progress on the USDJPY this week. The 5 wave rise is very clear to see, which means the pair should now see a correction towards the 108.40 support. This could be a play for next week once the correction has complete. We will then look to go long on the pair towards the 111 resistance.

Wednesday 28th April 2021

A great breakout trade here on the USDJPY. We will maintain our position and let the trade unfold. We are yet to see if this is just a correction or a continuation to new highs. Ideally the USDJPY will set up a 5 wave structure which will suggest the bulls are back.

Tuesday 27th April 2021

Ok the USDJPY looks complete to the downside with a small overthrow underneath the base channel structure. I am considering a long position here and will keep you posted in the trading floor if the position is taken. The JPY has weakened across the board and with the DXY on crucial support this could provide a great pair to go long on – ONLY if the DXY picks up some momentum.

Wednesday 21st April 2021

This count on the USDJPY is still valid. The pair is now trading near the base of the previous rising channel formation. This area could provide some support. I would like to see a breakout to the upside of the falling channel before considering going long on the pair.

Thursday 15th April 2021

USDJPY – I have not updated this chart for a couple of weeks as I wanted to let the correction finish. We are now tracking a possible bullish breakout from the falling wedge structure. We are yet to see a final wave 5 to complete the sequence which can end around the 112 region. Wave 5 tends to be similar in length to wave 1. Keep a close eye on any breakout above the falling wedge formation. This will provide an opportunity to go long in the market. The red numbers indicate the alternative scenario, just something to keep in mind.

Monday 26th March 2021

Our trade is slowly moving into the green. We need to see the pair break the 109.20 resistance so we can relax on the position. Once this level is cleared we will be looking to move our SL to open.

Wednesday 24th March 2021

The USDJPY is trending lower however it is potentially trading inside a bull flag structure. If the DXY continues to push higher the long trade could still be on the cards. The only downside is the JPY strengthening across the board this morning. We need to see the USDJPY break the 108.80 resistance before we consider going long in the market.

Monday 22nd March 2021

This USDJPY count is still a possibility. If the DXY continues to climb we may see the USDJPY reach the 110 resistance before a larger correction. This is a trade we are looking to set up later this afternoon in the trading floor.

Tuesday 16th March 2021

 

No change here, we are still in our long position on the USDJPY. We may change our view on the pair if the inclining trend line support is broken. We are hoping for a final push higher towards the 110 resistance before a larger correction.

Thursday 11th March 2021

The USDJPY has hade a huge run from the lows of 103, and what we can notice is the structures are very impulsive. We are now expecting a continuation to the upside once this small correction has completed. We are potentially still in Wave 3.

 

 

Traders can look to go long above 108.90 once the corrective structure has completed. 109.90-110.00 can be our initial targets before a larger correction occurs.

 

Commodities

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Tuesday 21st June

Silver moved back to breakeven on Friday night, however this analysis is still valid. We will be looking to re-enter this position today. I will keep you posted once opened. Silver should benefit from a weaker dollar alongside gold.

Wednesday 8th June

Have metals bottomed? Silver on the daily and weekly charts has set up a possible bottom formation, indicators are suggesting further upside which would align with a weaker DXY. There is a rising trend line support, and possible a rising triangle structure in play. As well as looking to go long on the GBPUSD, we are also watching for a long trade setup on silver.

Tuesday 30th May 2022

GOLD has reclaimed the rising trend line support and is trading above the negative trend line resistance. On the 1 hour time frame I can count an initial 5 wave bullish rally, this week I am waiting for a corrective decline in 3 waves which will give me the green light to take a long position. The indicators on the daily chart are suggesting a bullish turn to the upside which aligns with the weaker DXY.

Tuesday 24th May

Crude oil has filled the CME gap down from the start of the week and appears to have set up the first 5 wave decline. I am waiting to enter a short position on crude oil today with the target set at the 80-90 region. There has been a rejection from the 61% FIB retracement level and a possible bear flag structure in play.

Friday 20th May

Gold appears to be setting up a buying opportunity, I know a few of our members jumped in last night which is great. We are sitting on silver for the time being in the Trading Floor. The MACD is crossing over to the upside which is the sign of a new bullish wave unfolding. We will re-visit gold either later today or early next week. Ideally, there needs to be a close back above the trend line resistance.

Crude oil is possibly setting up a short opportunity after reaching the 0.618% FIB retracement zone. This could be a huge short trade setup so I am watching closely for an entry into the market. On the shorter-term time frame, I can count a 5 wave decline, so there needs to be an ABC correction for us to sell into.

Monday 16th May

There are a number of conflicting arguments for the next direction on crude oil. There are supply constraints in the EU  due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, however, demand is expected to decrease along with economic growth over the coming months. China has had a prolonged covid lockdown which will also put downside pressure on the demand. We are looking for a shorting opportunity at the 120-122 level over the next week. However, I would like to see an initial 5 wave decline before going short.

Wednesday 4th May

Gold is still under selling pressure as the DXY continues its bullish move to the upside. Metals have taken a hit due to the FED interest rate meeting tomorrow morning. However, we are expecting gold to have a counter trend rally soon at the minimum, or move back into a bullish trend. We can count a 5 wave decline, which indicates a bottom is nearing. Wave (iii) also has a 5 wave sub count. We don’t want to jump the gun too early on this positions due to the FED meeting tomorrow morning. No doubt there will be increased volatility and movement in the market.

Saturday 30th April

Gold has made an initial move higher off of the 5th wave low, so the ABC corrective decline is potentially complete. We will be looking to go long at the 1919 resistance level next week. We are still watching for another low to be made, therefore we do not want to get to excited just yet, however our buy zone should be in a safe area. Wave C has moved between 61% and 100% of wave A, which ticks the box for a completed wave C.

Wednesday 27th April

Gold is moving lower as expected, however we are looking for one final push to the downside before waiting for a bottoming formation. We just need to remain on the side lines until we see some upside off of the 5th wave low.

Monday 25th April

Gold and silver both appear to be completing larger corrective declines. Fundamentally, the announcement from the FED regarding a number of 0.50% rate hikes during the next two meetings has possibly put downside pressure on metals in the short term. We remain bullish on metals over the longer term, however in the short term we are expecting a deeper correction before the next buying opportunity.

Wednesday 13th April – SILVER, CRUDE OIL & GOLD

All commodities faced a period of selling pressure after the initial spike higher during the Ukraine invasion. However, looking at Silver and Gold they are possibly setting up new bullish moves to the upside. Kicking myself for not placing a long trade on gold as that played out perfectly from the analysis on Saturday. However silver should continue to the upside for our current open trade. Crude oil is at an interesting point, retesting 2 trend line resistance levels. A break above the trend lines will draw buyers back into the market. Notice the decline on crude oil is also in 3 waved, which can be labelled as an ABC corrective decline. The MACD on crude oil is trading inside a pennant structure, watch for a breakout either side.

Saturday 9th April 2022

The key question is has the ABC correction completed? I am slightly suspicious as the C leg was very shallow, generally it will be similar in length to wave A. So we will keep a close eye on gold next week. However, on the bullish side there has been a bull flag breakout and the metal may rise to the 1970 resistance initially. We are already long on silver which should follow gold closely.

Tuesday 29th March 2022

Very happy with the win on gold last week. Just what the team needed.

Gold reached the 1965 resistance level and turned south. The 1965 level is a key level as the price action reached a 1-1 parity of  the initial move higher from 1891 – 1945. Elliott wave theory suggests wave c can move the same distance as wave a. Therefore there is a chance that the larger ABC corrective decline is not yet complete, and a wave C is unfolding. The bearish level to keep an eye on is 1910. On the other side of the coin, we can look to build longs on a move above 1965.

Tuesday 22nd March

Gold has almost reached our buy zone, I am expecting the position to go live over the next couple of hours. We are looking to ride gold into the 1970-2000 region initially.

Thursday 17th March

There has been some selling pressure on commodities as they readjust to the new interest rate levels in the US. We are watching for a re-test scenario of silver on the declining trend line. This could set up an opportunity to go long in the market, but there would need to be a re-test and rejection.

Monday 7th March

Commodities are running hot at the moment with Crude oil reaching a major resistance zone just shy of $120 per barrel. The big play here is to wait for the reversal trade, no signs of it slowing just yet though. Those of you who were trading with us when Crude oil crashed to $0 per barrel during the covid market downturn, would have picked up some heavy wins when we went long in the market. We will be planning to do the same thing but in the opposite direction. These prices are not sustainable globally and a reversal will occur at some stage.

Silver and gold are both running higher due to the safe-haven appeal. Silver has finally broken out of a negative trend line resistance and also above the $25 resistance zone. We will be watching for long trade setups on any corrective pull back in the market.

Monday 28th February

From an Elliott wave perspective, gold is ticking the box for a possible shorting opportunity. We can count 5 waves down from the surge into 1980 followed by a corrective rally in 3 waves ending at the 38% FIB retracement tool.  Gold initially rallied higher due to tensions in Europe, however there are talks of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in Belarus – additionally, it appears as though other nations will not be stepping in with military. This is confining the conflict to Russia and Ukraine, of course anything can happen here so risky from a fundamental side of things. However shorts are looking like a good option.

Silver is also setting up a possible short trade, however on this setup there needs to be a breakdown from the rising trend line support. The large wick above the negative trend line resistance would have drawn a number of buyers into the market as traders would have been anticipating a breakout. Looks like there is going to be a reversal to the downside now.

Friday 25th February

Crude oil tagged the $100 per barrel level overnight due to the conflict in Ukraine. Sanctions are being placed on Russia and the conflict is unfolding further. Interestingly, the US has said it will move troops into Germany and NOT Ukraine, so it appears as though the West will not interfere with the Russian take over and only try to put pressure on Russia from an economic perspective. Technically speaking crude could be setting up a shorting opportunity. We are watching for signs of a reversal here.

Silver and Gold both surged to the upside overnight due to the Ukraine invasion, however they both quickly sold off after the news that the US would not be sending troops into Ukraine. Both gold, silver and crude oil have setup bearish candle formations on the daily charts. We are watching for some selling pressure coming into the market.

Friday 11th February

We are tracking a shorting opportunity on Crude Oil, any breakdown from the rising channel structure will draw SELLERS into the market. Looking across commodities, the majority of them appear to be setting up short trade setups. This is in line with the DXY rallying overnight. There is a chance of a risk-off move over the next couple of trading sessions which would lead to a stronger USD.

Gold reached our target of 1830 and is now seeing some downside pressure coming into the market due to the possibility of a larger interest rate hike in March from the FED. Rising interest rates can have a negative impact on metals due to the “real interest rate” moving higher out of the negative territory.

The real interest rate is interest rates minus inflation. This is demonstrated in the blue line in the chart below. As real rates move into negative gold tends to perform well. And also vice versa, when real rates move higher gold moves into a bear market. I have highlighted the exact inverse correlation in the charts below. At the moment, the real interest rate in the US is roughly -7%, which technically should provide an environment for gold to move higher. However, as the markets price in rising interest rates, the real rate should move off the low and higher over the coming weeks/months. This may put downside pressure on gold and silver in the short term.

Real rates are in blue, inflation is in red and nominal rates are in black.

Tuesday 8th February 2022

Gold is coming through nicely and is making its way towards the 1830 resistance zone. Once our TP is taken I may re-asses and look for a shorting opportunity to trade the triangle structure highlighted in previous analysis. Just need to sit tight on this position for the time being.

Crude oil is still trading inside the rising channel structure, most likely driven by the tensions in Europe between Russia and the US. Russia has amassed 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian boarder and the US has deployed more troops to the region. Conflict in that area will negatively impact a number of oil supply chains which is why the price is running higher. There is a possible shorting opportunity here, however there would need to be an easing of tensions and a breakdown from the rising channel structure.

Thursday 3rd February

Taking a look across a couple of commodities I feel some downside should occur in the near future. Firstly, silver is setting up a possible bear flag structure, so we are waiting for the next shorting opportunity. Secondly, crude oil has a couple of technical bearish reversal signals suggesting a short term top is coming up. The MACD and RSI are signalling a bearish divergence, which has worked very well at spotting reversal opportunities in the market. There is a rising channel structure on the 1 hour chart for crude oil, we are waiting for a breakdown to take a short position.

Wednesday 2nd February 2022

The team is still watching for another shorting opportunity, but it will depend largely on the DXY. If the DXY breaks down from the rising channel structure this will most likely become invalid. However, the triangle formation suggests another move towards the 1760 region at least. So we are sitting tight for the next shorting opportunity. Silver is also still on our watch list.

Monday 31st January

We have been tracking metals lower over the past week and this triangle structure appears to be the best fit. We are waiting for a short term bounce on gold and silver to possibly enter on the short side. I’ll keep you posted on any setup that we take here.

Thursday 2th January

The triangle formation is still very much in play, the rise to the 1860 resistance is also in 3 waves to complete wave b. We are watching for a breakdown play here and also for SILVER. The rally in the DXY supports lower metal prices due to the inverse correlation. I will keep you posted on our silver position, it should be ready to go later this afternoon.

Monday 17th January

We are still alive on the GOLD short position and the market has set up a possible lower high which is a bearish signal. The DXY has had a strong bounce on the major support zone which is helping our short position here. I am looking to possibly add a second position at these levels, but I will wait until the US session later this evening. EURUSD, AUDUSD and the USDCAD all appear to favour a move in the direction of the USD.

Friday 14th January

GOLD is still in play on the short side, we are running a fine line. We need to DXY to take a strong technical bounce higher to help out position out. Technically, the analysis is still valid until the 1830 resistance is taken out.

Monday 10th January

News of an escalating energy crisis across Europe, especially in Kazakhstan, potentially pushed oil to highs of 80 per barrel last week. However, these types of fundamental news events are usually short-lived and are generally buy the rumour sell the fact scenarios. Crude has reached the 23% FIB retracement level which is a key resistance zone. I am seriously considering a shorting opportunity here as the risk v reward is heavily skewed in our favour. Markets do look ready to take a serious risk off move, which should filter through to commodities as well as equities. Ill keep you posted on this one.

Thursday 6th January

Very close call on our GOLD short position, however, the sharp turn lower is playing into our bearish theory. 1830 appears to be a very crucial resistance level. GOLD technically looks similar to the AUDUSD which is breaking down from a bear flag structure. This setup is suggesting a very sharp decline in gold prices which would require an aggressive move to the upside on the DXY.

Crude Oil is also looking like a possible shorting opportunity based on the three-wave corrective rally. There is also a possible head and shoulders formation in play. I want to see some more downside here before committing to a short position. Let’s see how crude oil is trading tomorrow.

Tuesday 4th January

Looking at gold there is a strong possibility of a triangle formation in play, which would indicate a move towards 1700. A move towards 1700 would also be the last move in the triangle formation before a rally to the upside. If you take a close look at the triangle formation, each move is made up of 3 sub-waves labelled a,b and c. The recent rally into 1830 is potentially the top of a wave b before a sharp decline. IF the DXY runs higher this would put pressure on gold prices, so the inverse correlation indicates weakness in metals. I will keep you posted on any trade setup that we take on GOLD over the next 24 hours.

SILVER – Silver has really struggled to make any significant move from the 21.50 support level, in fact, the recent bounce higher has been very slow and highlights the possibility of a breakdown. This is the fourth time silver has tested the 21.50 support level, the more times a level is tested the weaker it becomes, similar to skimming a pebble across a pond, eventually it will break through. Long term we are still bullish on metals, however, we need to be aware of a possible breakdown in the short term. If gold leads the market to the downside we can expect silver to follow.

Wednesday 29th December

We closed our crude oil position down early however the price action has unfolded as expected. We are now waiting to see if a shorting opportunity presents itself as there is a possible head and shoulders formation setting up. For crude oil to turn lower there would need to be a significant risk off move in the market which could be led by global lockdowns. Across the world, there has been a record number of covid-19 cases which is currently being ignored by the market. Let’s see if anything changes over the coming days.

We are playing with the idea of a triangle formation setting up on GOLD which would suggest a move towards 1720 is on the cards. The recent rally into 1810-1815 failed to impulse to the upside so this could just be a corrective rally. If the DXY finally has a last push to the upside gold prices could fall lower.

Thursday 23rd December

Crude oil is tracking well so far, we are hoping for a final push into the 75-76 resistance zone. This is the forth attempt at the 73 resistance so the probability of a breakout is high. We will keep a close eye on the price action throughout the day.

Wednesday 8th December

The weakness in the DXY is playing into our long gold bias. We are looking to target the 1808-1815 resistance initially. SILVER is also on our watchlist for a long trade however I would like to see an impulsive 5 wave rally before committing to a buy position.

Monday 6th December

Silver has moved back into the major 22 support zone. The bullish invalidation level is 21.40. Technically speaking this could be a good area to start building some long trades with a really good risk v reward, so we are watching silver this week. For a move to the upside, we would need to see a breakdown of the DXY over the next couple of days.

Gold has broken to the upside of the falling wedge formation and the MACD is turning higher. Both are bullish reversal signals. Commodities have hopefully bottomed this week so we will be looking for long opportunities across silver and gold, whilst maintaining our position on crude oil.

Crude oil is retesting the broken falling wedge structure and the trade setup remains valid. If the retest does not hold we may need to close down early but I will keep you posted.

Friday 3rd December

There is a falling wedge structure on gold leading into tonights NFP and US unemployment data release. For gold to run higher the DXY will need to see some weakness overnight. We are watching gold for a long trade as long term we remain in the bullish camp.

Tuesday 23rd November

Silver has broken back beneath the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders formation. There is a rising trendline support coming into play. If this level is broken to the downside a deeper correction is on the cards. The rally in the DXY is putting downside pressure on metals, we need to see the DXY show signs of slowing down before re-entering on the long side.

Gold has also moved back into the 1809 support zone and is trading on the pennant structure. We are waiting for a long opportunity but may need to re-evaluate if the DXY continues to pick up momentum. As expected a retest of the pennant is taking place, which is why we were hesitant to enter a long trade. Let’s see how gold reacts on this level over the next couple of days.

Thursday 18th November

Gold is yet to retest the broken pennant structure so we are cautious of a pullback across metals. Looking at the shorter-term chart there has been a rising wedge breakout and a possible head and shoulders is setting up. We are still bullish across metals and will look to re-enter the market at a lower level.

Tuesday 16th November

Silver is retesting the neckline of the head and shoulders formation. This level needs to hold to confirm a continuation to the upside. MACD is signalling a bullish trend.

Gold has finally broken out of the year-long consolidation period and most technicals are indicating a continuation to the upside. The MACD is in the early stages of impulsing to the upside, and the 50-day moving average is close to a cross over on the 200-day moving average which is known as a golden cross. We will be looking to buy into gold on a pull-back. Ideally there should be a retest of the 1830 support level.

 

Friday 11th November

Silver is coming along very nicely! Finally a breakout above the inverse head and shoulders formation. There is still a long way to go on this one but it should move quickly as buyers will be stepping into the market. Technicals are all indicating higher prices. One concern is that gold and silver are both moving alongside the DXY which is very unusual. Stop-loss can be moved to break-even as the price action should not revisit that area now.

Breakout on gold as expected, the next key level is the 1916 resistance. This can start to rally pretty quickly now it has broken out of the pennant, we just need to pick a good entry point to get in on the action. Ideally there needs to be a pull back to re-test the pennant structure. I will keep you posted on any buy position throughout today.

Monday 8th November

The bullish outlook on gold and silver was correct, unfortunately, the stop was taken out on gold before a large move to the upside. Gold looks set to move into the crucial 1830 resistance over the next couple of days. We are watching for a possible breakout play from the pennant structure that has been in play for the past year. 1840 is our bullish level and we will be looking for dips to buy into. The current economic conditions support higher gold and silver prices.

Silver is tracking well, we need to see the 24.80 resistance taken out to confirm the inverted head and shoulders structure. Once taken out it should open to doors for a large move to the upside.

Friday 29th October 2021

Short term resistance is coming into play on SILVER at 24.84 and there is a possibility of a breakdown from the rising channel structure. We will be looking to buy back into the metal around the 22.50 level which could set up an inverse head and shoulders formation. If SILVER plays out as we are hoping, there is a possible large move to the upside coming over the next couple of months. For the time being, we will remain patient for the correct setup.

Monday 25th October

This is a very bullish Elliott wave count on SILVER, it indicates a large consolidation phase is complete as an ABC. It would also suggest we are setting up for a bull market that could break the 30 handle. We are long already so we will see how this plays out over the next couple of weeks, but it would need a large decline in the DXY. This is also similar to the bullish scenario on gold (second chart) which is setting up an inverse head and shoulders formation and bullish pennant.

Thursday 21st October

This is the bullish wave count we have on SILVER. If correct, silver could be setting up a large impulsive move to the upside for a Primary wave 3. Primary wave 3 is the largest wave in the bullish cycle. It appears as though the year-long consolidation has been complete with a nice ABC structure. From a fundamental perspective, the FED has downplayed the possibility of interest rate hikes in the near future which sets up a bullish outlook for metals as inflation remains high. FED Governor Christopher Walter said the FED should begin tapering bonds next month, though interest rates hikes are probably some way off. The FED’s most recent dot plot show half of the policymakers see rates rising by the end of 2022 and the other half expecting a rise by the end of 2023. If the FED delay raising interest rates the USD will see a decline across the board which plays into a long bias across metals.

Monday 18th October

Technically speaking, both GOLD and SILVER are setting up bullish outlooks. There is a large inverted head and shoulders formation on gold, followed by a bullish channel breakout on silver. Silver has been consolidating between 22-30 for the past year and gold has been in a declining consolidation structure. Looking at gold, the 1840 resistance is a key level that bulls must break for confirmation of a trend reversal. We are looking to reload on one of the metals this week, firstly, I want to see how the DXY reacts tonight as that will be a key driver of the market.

Wednesday 6th October

Crude oil on the weekly chart is setting up a fairly bullish structure. There has been a clear breakout above a long term negative trend line followed by a retest. If crude oil breaks above the 80 resistance which is a key zone, I wouldn’t be surprised if a move towards $100 occurs. We will be waiting for a pullback on the shorter-term time frame to get in on the action. Fundamentally, if crude continues to the upside we can expect the CAD to gain strength – which provides an opportunity on the CADJPY.

Friday 1st October

I have been waiting for gold to set up a bullish structure for us to look at going long again. Gold has set up a higher low, followed by a falling wedge structure which are both bullish technicals. If gold breaks to the upside it would suggest the USD may take a breather from the recent rally. We are waiting for a breakout play here to possibly ride gold towards the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders formation.

Tuesday 28th September

Silver is trading on a key support at 22.61. Whilst a buy does look attractive, the DXY concerns me. If the DXY breaks to the upside of the head and shoulders formation there could be a large drop coming for silver and gold. I would be more interested in a buy trade once the negative trend line resistance is broken to the upside. Most trade setups are waiting for the DXY to breakout either above or below the structure. This will indicate either a risk-on or risk-off market sentiment.

Tuesday 21st September

Gold has hit our target zone for a long trade scenario. This aligns with a bearish head and shoulders formation on the DXY. We held off trading the DXY last night as I wanted to confirm a bullish breakout which didn’t actually take place. There could be a very good risk v reward trade set up on gold if the DXY reverses and moves lower. Fundamentally, we need the FED to push back bond tapering and highlight the current risks in the economy during their meeting this week. The miss on inflation is playing into the FED’s transitory theory. Any comments in line with the thought process would send the DXY lower and help provide support for gold and the stock market – which is what the FED has been doing over the past year.

Tuesday 14th September

Technically there is a head and shoulders set up on gold, however, I am not interested in shorting the metal. I would like to wait for a buying opportunity. We may look to buy if the metal reaches the 1760 support zone, or if it breaks above the 1815 resistance.

Wednesday 8th September

There has been a clear breakdown from the rising channel/wedge. We will take another look at gold if it reaches the 1760 support zone. This could set up a nice buying opportunity for another large move to the upside. It will depend largely on the DXY head and shoulders formation.

Monday 6th September

Gold has reached our initial target zone at 1830. The plan is to wait for either a breakout to the upside or wait for another correction to buy back into at a lower price. If the DXY takes a technical bounce higher this week it would indicate a correction lower on gold. Silver (the second chart) is also setting up a bullish technical breakout. Silver has been range trading between $22-$30 since September 2020. Metals should resume its bullish trend if the DXY continues its decline.

Wednesday 1st September

Gold is still trading inside the rising channel structure with 1830 acting as a major resistance initially. We are expecting a reaction from this level over the coming days. We remain in the bullish camp for gold and would like to get into the market at some point. The issue is working out risk v reward ratios at the moment.

Monday 30th August

GOLD is looking very bullish from a technical and fundamental perspective. The flash crash a couple of weeks back would have taken out the majority of long positions in the market. There could be a correction from the 1830 resistance which is a key zone, we will be waiting for any pullbacks to go long in the market. Fundamentally, a weaker USD will support higher metal prices.

Thursday 26th August

This scenario is tracking well. Gold is in a corrective decline, ideally, the correction needs to be three waves. Once the correction is complete we can look to buy in again at the B wave top. Our outlook for metals remains bullish, especially gold. Good decision to close our long trade, nice work.

Wednesday 25th August

We decided to take the profit on gold last night as we can count a 5 wave structure and there was some selling pressure coming into the market. We remain in the bullish camp, however, there could be a short term correction coming over the next couple of days. Once a correction has complete we will be looking to potentially reposition. Solid trade.

Monday 23rd August

GOLD is still trading inside a bull flag structure, ideally, we need to see DXY weakness come into play tonight which will help commodities recover. There are a number of economic risks around the world at the moment, meaning the demand for gold should be high, despite the recent market sell off.

Thursday 12th August

A huge breakdown from the rising trendline support here on gold. The market is moving back for the retest as we speak. Any break back above the trendline would be bullish for the metal. For now, I do not see any obvious trading opportunity, so we will let the price action unfold over the next few sessions.

Monday 9th July 2021

Crude oil has rejected the 77 mirror resistance and is currently trading on the key support zone. Delta is weighing on oil prices and any escalation could easily result in a breakdown. OPEC provide their latest report on Thursday which will also provide volatility on crude prices.

Thursday 5th July 2021

There was a strange move across the metals market last night due to the whipsaw on the DXY. Interestingly, gold has failed the 1832 resistance for the third time and I wouldn’t be surprised on there was further downside from here. We will stay on the sidelines for gold and silver until a clear level is broken. On silver, we are waiting for a break above the wedge highlighted yesterday.

Tuesday 3rd August 2021

Silver is an interesting one, there has been a breakdown from the rising trend line support followed by a retest which indicates a bearish sentiment. However, there is also a falling wedge structure that has set up a bullish breakout previously. Let’s see how this plays out over the coming sessions. We can look to buy a break above 25.80.

Wednesday 28th July 2021

The larger picture for gold is very interesting and this would suggest a large move to the upside is coming. There is a possible inverted head and shoulders structure in play. This would also mean the DXY could be set for a large correction to the downside. The shorter-term chart (second chart) has a possible bull flag structure, we will be waiting for a breakout to the upside before going long here.

Tuesday 20th July

Here is a possible bearish setup on gold, technically there is a retest of a broken channel formation alongside a head and shoulders formation. If the DXY continues to move higher this could put further pressure on the metal market. Long term we are still bullish, however, this ticks the box for a possible setup. We may look at this later this evening.

 

SILVER: There has been a breakdown from a very important trendline support. The outlook for silver from a technical perspective looks pretty bearish if the 24.00 support does not hold.

Monday 19th July 2021

Metals pulled lower on Friday and gold is testing an important technical structure. The 1810 support must hold for bulls to stay in control. The DXY is still trading inside the rising wedge structure at the top of a pennant formation. I guess the direction of the markets will depend largely on the direction of the DXY, we need to see a breakdown to play into our positions.

Tuesday 13th July 2021

The 1790 zone is now acting as support. Metals should benefit from a weaker DXY as the index has broken down from a rising wedge structure. The second chart on Silver also looks bullish as the metal has broken out of a falling wedge structure. We just need to sit tight on this trade.

Friday 9th July 2021

SILVER is possilby setting up a bull flag structure and trading on the 23% FIB retracement tool. The invalidation level for any long trades is at 25.50 support. If a new low is made the bearish trend will remain intact. Ideally, the DXY breaks down from the rising wedge structure which would provide upside momentum in the metals market.

Tuesday 6th July 2021

MACD on the daily charts has crossed over and appears to be moving higher. This has provided a bullish move when occurred previously. Yesterday’s daily candle was a bullish engulfing which suggests a move to the upside is on the cards. This is also similar for silver. FOMC minutes are due this week which could provide the next move on the USD and metals.

Friday 2nd July

Gold had the final dip as expected over the past couple of days and is showing signs of a bullish move higher. Before going long I would like to see either a break above 1795, or an inverted head and shoulders formation to buy into. This entry point will be crucial for a long term hold. We can count 5 structures in the wave a, 3 structures in wave b and 5 structures in wave c. This has now completed an abc correction.

Tuesday 29th June 2021

Gold and silver are still in consolidation mode, moving sideways inside a tight range. There is a possible head and shoulders formation in play here, however, I am not looking to trade this. Long term, based on Bidens infrastructure spending bill commodities should remain in high demand therefore prices should move higher. However, this will also depend on the direction of the DXY based on the inverse correlation.

Monday 21st June 2021

Gold has bounced on the 1760 support and will most likely retrace to the 1797 resistance. It is too soon to call a bottom on this pullback, the market will need to break back out of the falling channel formation for bulls to regain control.

Tuesday 15th June

Our position on GOLD came close to activation, thankfully the metal turned lower before the BUY stop. We are still in the bullish camp on gold, this appears to be just a pullback so far. We will be looking to update our entry point on gold today. This is going to be our key focus over the coming days whilst the USD index price action unfolds further.

Thursday 10th June

Gold has just tagged the 38% FIB retracement which is a key support zone in a bullish sequence. The channel formation needs to hold. I have taken a SMALL position here on gold with the pending order still waiting to be activated. The ABC correction should now have completed, which also aligns with the USDJPY due to the inverse correlation. Once the b wave top is taken out we should be in for a large move higher.

Tuesday 8th June 2021

Gold is the inverse of the USDJPY, we can see a 5 wave rise from the trendline support. We now need to wait for a corrective structure to buy into. I am expecting this to play out tonight/tomorrow, as always I will keep you posted.

Monday 7th June 2021

Commodities are continuing to run higher across the board. Gold is trading inside a rising bullish channel, the structure looks impulsive as there are no overlapping waves. Major resistance is set at 1960 where there could be a larger correction. We are possibly looking to go long on gold, however, I would like to see the DXY breakdown first which would provide a bullish outlook for gold.

 

Tuesday 1st June 2021

There has been a very bullish break out on gold and the metal appears to be moving towards the 1960 resistance. We are looking to buy any dips into the 1840 region, or if there is a retest on the broken trendline. Gold hasn’t provided any pull reasonable pullback to buy into just yet, therefore we need to remain patient for the correct opportunity.

Monday 24th May 2021

Crude Oil had a very bearish move towards the end of last week breaking down from the bear flag formation. For now, we will need to see a retest and rejection before considering going short again. The 57-55 zone is still our target level for further downside.

Wednesday 19th May 2021

Crude Oil has been VERY choppy, however, the short bias is still our preferred direction. The structure still appears to be a bear flag and this is one of the reasons we have taken a short on the CADJPY.

 

Silver has created a throw over from the 28.30 resistance. This is also known as a “stop hunt” where short-sellers are taken out of the market due to the tight SL above the resistance zone. We are watching for a possible reversal opportunity here.

Sunday 16th May 2021

Silver is trading between a rising channel formation with resistance coming in at 28.30. At the 28.30 resistance zone we will be watching for a potential sell opportunity to set up an inverse head and shoulders formation.

Tuesday 4th May 2021

Crude oil rallied higher after creating a 5 wave decline, so the structure still remains bearish. Ideally Crude will begin to move lower as the ABC correction looks complete.

Monday 26th April 2021

Gold has broken down from a rising wedge formation therefore we are waiting for a possible larger correction. If the USD continues to weaken it will provide a bullish outlook for metals. Our long term view remains with the bulls for gold, however ideally the market will set up a nice ABC correction for us to buy into.

 

Crude Oil – we picked up a nice win on crude last week and we may look to reenter on the short side. There is possible a deeper correction coming this week especially with the OPEC meeting on Thursday. The overall longer term trend remains bullish, but I would like to see crude trade down at the 57-55 support zone before considering going long in the market.

Tuesday 13th April 2021

No change on crude oil, price action is still compressing inside the triangle formation. This appears to be a similar story for the USDCAD which is setting up a triangle formation. The USDCAD will most likely breakout in the opposite direction to crude oil. Keep a close eye on both.

GOLD – The correction on gold is underway. We do not want to buy in just yet as we would ideally like to see the metal bottom before going long or wait for a break above 1750. We also have our position pending on silver in the trading floor live trades. Gold is a key trade we are looking to get into at some point as we see a strong possibility of the metal turning higher.

Thursday 8th April 2021

Crude oil has been very stubborn on the trend line support. Price action is very messy making it difficult to trade. Ideally, we want to see a breakdown to help our CAD trades. We will remain on the sidelines for the time being.

Tuesday 6th April 2021

Silver has broken the short term negative trend line resistance. There is potentially a bull flag structure in play on the metal. IF the DXY breaks down from the rising wedge formation, metals and commodities should benefit. We are looking to get into either gold or silver for a swing trade this week.

Crude Oil – crude has broken down from the rising trend line support, however, we have decided not to go short just yet. We need to see a retest of the trend line support and a close beneath the trend line. As always I will keep you posted IF we decide to take the trade.

Friday 26th March 2021

Silver has reached our expected support zone just as the DXY moves towards the key resistance. Interestingly, silver has created a textbook reversal daily candle. We can see a long Doji candle which can indicate a reversal opportunity. We will be looking to go long here, only if the DXY rejects the new resistance zone and once silver has broken the negative trend line resistance.

Wednesday 24th March 2021

Crude oil has come down as expected to the 57.30 support zone. We WILL be considering going long over the rest of the week, however buy on a falling knife is not fun. I will be looking for a bullish reversal pattern before considering going long on the market. If the DXY continues higher crude may continue to decline towards the 55 support zone. Lets see how this unfolds over the coming days.

SILVER – All commodities have taken a turn lower due to the stronger USD. The market may continue to decline if the DXY sets up a new high. We are waiting for buying opportunities on a number of commodities once the DXY has topped out.

Monday 22nd March 2021

Silver has been consolidating between a rising channel formation which may also be a bear flag structure. If the USD continues to rise expect metals to move lower, a breakdown from the bear flag structure will provide the green light to enter a short position. The 24.30 support can provide an initial target.

 

Crude Oil – This would have been the perfect trade, we positioned well last week. We are now waiting for a possible final leg lower before going long in the market. 63.50 is our bullish level. Any move above 63.50 would suggest bulls are back in control.

Thursday 18th March 2021

Gold is moving higher and we can now relax on the position. The metal is benefiting from a weaker USD. FED officials confirmed they will not be looking to increase interest rates until 2024. This should provide gold with the fuel to begin a new rally higher. We are positioned well to capitalise on that. Something to keep in mind is whether the market believes what the FED officials have said this morning. If US economic data continues to improve we may see the market diverge from the FED’s comments.

 

Monday 15th March 2021

 

Gold activated our order on Friday at the 1710 support zone. We positioned the SL well just below the 38% FIB retracement. Ideally, we will see the USD index breakdown from its current support zone providing gold with the fuel it needs to break above the 1740 neckline resistance. The target remains the same for the time being.

Friday 12th March 2021

Gold has set up a bullish breakout from the falling wedge formation. The metal is currently having a pull back, and we see the 1705-1710 a possible buy zone. The metal could be setting up an inverted head and shoulders formation. If the USD continues declining from its current area then metals will benefit from a weaker greenback. Keep in mind a rally on the USD will indicate a possible deeper correction across commodities.

USDCAD

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Tuesday 21st June

The USDCAD has reached a double top zone, therefore a technical corrective decline should occur. We are expecting the USDCAD to move into the 1.02890 support zone initially. There is possibly a head and shoulders structure setting up, we may look to short if it plays out correctly this week from the 1.3000 level.

Friday 10th June

It has been one of those weeks with a similar scenario on the EURAUD. The USDCAD position would have been a cracker, just possibly a day too early into the market. There has been a break of the negative trend line resistance, after a corrective pull back there is a chance of a run higher.

Tuesday 30th May

If the DXY has topped and began a new bearish trend then the USDCAD would likely follow suit. The USDCAD has moved higher in a 3 wave corrective structure indicating the end of the counter-trend. We are watching for a countertrend rally on the shorter-term time frame to potentially sell into over the next couple of weeks. The DXY will need to set up a lower high on the daily time frame.

Friday 20th May

The USDCAD appears to have set up the first 5 wave decline, which is the sign of a bearish reversal. This aligns with the bullish scenario on the EURUSD and the bearish scenario on the DXY. We do not want to jump the gun and short right now, there needs to be a 3 wave counter trend over the next couple of trading sessions. We have closed our DXY short trades and now need to sit on our hands for the price action to unfold and present the next opportunity.

Monday 16th May

The USDCAD broke out of the corrective triangle but failed to reach the initial target zone of 1.33. I can count a 5 wave rally, so in theory, this could be a top for the USDCAD. I am favouring either a long trade on the AUDUSD or GBPUSD rather than shorting here. If the market moves in a risk-on sentiment the commodity-related currencies should benefit (AUD, CAD and NZD).

Monday 9th May

The USDCAD has broken out of the corrective triangle structure and based on the FIB extension tool, we are looking at a target zone of 1.33-1.3900. We will be digging down into the 1-hour charts this week to find a buy trade set up to hold. Generally, Monday mornings are not an optimal time to enter fresh positions, therefore a pullback on Tuesday/Wednesday would be ideal to buy into.

Wednesday 4th May

Technically speaking the USDCAD is trading at a nice resistance zone and it looks attractive for a short position. However, with the FED interest rate meeting early hours tomorrow morning it would be a high risk play. Post FED announcement, if the USDCAD is trading nearer the bottom of the pennant structure we can look for long trade setups.

Saturday 30th April

The USDCAD is testing the top of the pennant structure. The longer term view looks relatively bullish and we will be looking for the next buying opportunity over the coming days. Keep a close eye on the MACD as a breakout of the pennant on the MACD will suggest the trend has changed into a bullish mode. Ideally there would be another dip on the USDCAD towards the 1.2600 support for us to buy into.

Wednesday 27th April

The USDCAD has reached the first target zone, we closed down slightly early however profit is profit! We will wait to see if there is a rejection and move lower before the next leg to the upside. My personal opinion is a breakout to the upside is more likely due to the initial bullish move prior to the pennant structure.

Saturday 9th April

When you pick a good trade and you get stopped out by a wick it is very frustrating. The USDCAD is rising back inside the pennant structure. We will be looking for a corrective pull back in the market to possibly buy into. This also aligns with a corrective rally on the AUDUSD next week to SELL into. We will need to keep an eye on the MACD, a rising back inside the triangle will also add support to the bullish scenario.

Wednesday 6th April 2022

Hard luck on this one, typical stop hunt outside of the trend line before a reversal back inside. We may look to revisit tomorrow depending on the daily candle close.

Tuesday 28th March

The USDCAD has continued to head south and has bounced on the 1.2460 support level. There is still a higher low in play, therefore a bullish triangle is still valid. The MACD has also reached the bottom of a triangle formation so I am considering a technical buy at this level with a good risk-reward ratio. The 1.2460 level has acted as strong support and resistance zone over the past year.

Tuesday 22nd March

The USDCAD has stabilised at the 1.2590 support zone. This is a double bottom formation and also inline with the rising trend line support, so we can possibly expect a technical bounce higher from here at least. If the bullish triangle formation is correct, there will also be another move to the upside. A bullish move on the USDCAD also aligns with the DXY.

Thursday 17th March

The USDCAD has been one tough currency pair over the past couple of weeks. Overall on the longer-term picture, if the DXY is going to turn to the downside, I would assume the USDCAD would also follow. Which aligns with a possible reversal trade on the EURUSD. Before we consider going short, I would want to see a breakdown from the rising trend line structure.

Monday 7th March

The USDCAD has been a complete mess recently, with very choppy price action. The DXY strengthening due to the safe haven aspect is suggesting to buy the USDCAD, whereas the CAD also has a bullish scenario due to higher crude oil prices. Technically, there is a major rising trend line support coming into play, whilst the market is trading above this level the bulls are still in control. The daily chart is showing a possibly bullish outlook, whereas the shorter-term time frame favours a bearish move.

The USDCAD has a major resistance zone at 1.2800, there has been a short term rejection from this level. To go long here there would need to be a breakout above 1.2800, and to go short I would like to see a breakdown from the rising trend line structure.

Friday 25th February

Finally a breakout from the consolidation zone on the USDCAD. We need to see if the new support area at 1.2800 holds before considering going long. If crude faces some selling pressure there is a chance of another move to the upside on this pair.

Monday 21st February

The USDCAD is still trading inside a very tight range. If the market sentiment turns negative we can expect a move to the upside, if there appears to be a cooling of tensions in Europe then we will most likely see a move to the downside. There is no clear direction on this pair just yet.

Monday 14th February

Despite crude oil prices running higher, there is still a chance for the inverted head and shoulders formation to play out here on the USDCAD. Commodity related currencies look fragile at the moment due to the uncertainty in Europe. Any escalation between Russia and the Ukraine/West will put pressure on the AUD, NZD and CAD as they are risk currencies.

Thursday 3rd February

Based on the bearish technical signals on crude oil, there is a possibility of this inverse head and shoulders playing out due to the inverse correlation. The DXY has declined throughout the week, however, leading into Friday night NFP and unemployment data there could be a rally back into the DXY. We are looking to trade a possible stronger USD over the next couple of days.

Thursday 27th January

The USDCAD has continued to the upside but we are not looking to trade this pair just yet as crude oil is also still on the move. There is no obvious position to take here, ill keep an eye on the chart moving forward.

Monday 24th January

As expected, the USDCAD pushed higher off the technical rising trend line support. We are sticking with our EURUSD position for the time being, however, if Crude Oil shows signs of weakness from its current peak this may also be another opportunity. Commodity related currencies, AUD, CAD & NZD, are all vulnerable over the next week whilst the market has a negative sentiment.

Friday 21st January

The USDCAD has set up a number of reversal candlestick formations on the daily charts. We are already heavily trading in the USD’s favour and positioned for a risk off move, so I am reluctant to add another position. But technically speaking, there should at least be a small bounce from this level.

Monday 17th January

There has been a technical bounce on the inclining trend line support for the USDCAD. This favours a technical bounce from these levels. Interestingly, crude oil has possibly set up a lower high and may face some selling pressure. All eyes on the DXY over the next couple of days.

Friday 14th January

The USDCAD is trading on a major trend line support which is in line with the DXY and the EURUSD. We are still watching Crude Oil for a possible reversal opportunity that would see the USDCAD run higher.

Tuesday 4th January

Both the USDCAD and Crude Oil have set up possible head and shoulder formations. It is highly unlikely that both of them will play out as these two assets move in opposite directions due to the inverse correlation. If crude oil turns south from here the USDCAD will most likely continue to the upside or vice versa. What we do know is the DXY is possibly ready for another move to the upside which plays into the USDCAD bullish scenario and bearish commodities scenario. We will keep a close eye on both of these over the next couple of days.

Thursday 23rd December

The USDCAD is trading at a major resistance zone inside a rising wedge structure, so technically speaking there could be a breakdown from here. Oil prices are recovering which is playing into a bearish bias on the USDCAD.

Wednesday 8th December

The decline in the USDCAD appears to be a change in trend after the rising channel breakdown. We are playing with the idea that the USDCAD is trading inside a pennant formation and there could be a series of lower highs and higher lows before eventually breaking down. We will monitor this analysis over the coming days, any bounce towards the top of the pennant is going to be our next shorting opportunity.

Tuesday 16th November

The USDCAD stopped at the bearish invalidation level so there is still a possibility of a move to the downside. We are waiting for any breakdown from the rising channel structure to possibly get back into the market. Lost a couple of trades here on the USDCAD so we will be cautious moving forward.

Friday 11th November

Tough lesson here, don’t double guess your analysis. Taking a look at the analysis from the weeks previous I was playing with the idea of a higher USDCAD which has now occurred. The fake breakdown from the rising wedge/bear flag would have drawn in a number of short sellers. We will let this playout for the time being and let the price action unfold.

Monday 25th October

The USDCAD has reached a mirror level which was used as a buying level previously. Technically this looks bullish, however, due to oil prices remaining elevated and the DXY setting up a bearish technical structure I am not convinced just yet. This will be our long DXY trade if the market moves into a risk-off market sentiment.

Monday 18th October 2021

The USDCAD is a tricky one to call at the moment due to oil prices reaching extreme highs. Technically, the USDCAD is setting up a very similar structure to the start of the previous bullish trend, we can see a move into the 1.29 resistance followed by an identical pull back. Currently, the USDCAD is trading on the 38% FIB retracement level. The previous pullback reached the 23% FIB zone. Let’s see how this tracks over this week, for a bullish turn to the upside oil would need a significant pullback which doesn’t look likely just yet. The DXY would also need another move to the upside. This will be our long DXY trade if the USD turns bullish.

Thursday 16th September

The USDCAD has failed the 1.27 resistance for the third occasion so a breakout to the upside looks less likely. With crude oil prices breaking a key resistance we now prefer a bearish breakdown on the USDCAD – due to CAD strength. This is on our list for a shorting opportunity once the triangle formation has been taken out. There could be a move towards the 1.2350 support once the market breaks down.

Monday 13th September

The USDCAD looks very similar to the DXY. There is a possible inverted head and shoulders structure in play indicating a break above the neckline. The CAD, AUD and NZD all look vulnerable to a risk-off move this week, especially if stocks continue to the downside.

Friday 3rd September

Although we closed out a win on the USDCAD earlier in the week I feel disappointed to not have held for longer. There has been a clean breakdown from the rising channel structure which aligns with the DXY. We will be looking to get back into this trade at some stage.

Monday 30th August

The USDCAD rejected the 61% FIB retracement as expected, we are now waiting for a breakdown from the rising channel structure. The plan for this position is to sit tight for the time being. Targets can be found at 1.2495 and 1.2350.

Thursday 26th August 2021

No significant change on the USDCAD, the pair is still trading on the lower trend line. I am expecting some kind of bounce from this level. Looking across other USD pairs, the EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD all have completed a 5 wave structure, meaning a correction is on the cards. There is a possibility of a DXY rally today, leaving room for the FED to possibly send the DXY down on Friday. We will keep a close eye on the DXY index and may close the EURUSD trade early.

Wednesday 25th August

There was a reversal on the USDCAD due to the DXY coming under pressure. The DXY has broken down from a rising wedge structure whilst oil prices have recovered. This paints a bearish picture of the USDCAD. However, I would like to see a bounce on the USDCAD for a nice entry too short, expecting a breakdown from the rising channel.

Monday 23rd August

There was a sharp rise on the USDACD last week, but the daily charts are showing a pin bar candle which can indicate a reversal in the market. Crude oil is trading on a major support zone after a week of relentless selling. There could be a relief rally on crude prices this week which would put pressure on the USDCAD. Obviously, we need to be aware of what the DXY is doing leading into the Jackson Hole meeting towards the end of the week.

Tuesday 17th August

The head and shoulders structure is technically still valid, however, we would need to see a breakdown from the rising trend line support before entering short again. Oil was under pressure overnight which has helped this pair move higher. If oil begins to recover there is a possible breakdown play on the USDCAD.

Thursday 12th August 2021

The USDCAD has broken the key trendline support which indicates bearish pressure coming into play. The DXY had a sharp pullback overnight due to the softer inflation data. This does not mean the DXY will reverse completely as there is still employment data due tonight. We will need to monitor the DXY over the next couple of sessions.

Looking at the stock market across different countries, Aus, US and France, the valuations are very high inside tight rising wedge structures. If they break down it is likely the USD will rally higher, so we will remain alert for any shorting opportunities.

Thursday 5th August 2021

Technically, the USDCAD could have a head and shoulders formation setting up, however, I am not convinced just yet. Weaker oil prices would push the USDCAD higher as well as the Non-Farm Payroll due on Friday night. We will keep this in the back pocket, if the DXY turns south this will be our short play. A break above the 1.2590 resistance will potentially invalidate the head and shoulders.

Tuesday 3rd August 2021

The USDCAD is edging higher due to oil prices declining and a risk-off market sentiment. We are sitting with the SL at break even so we can let the trade run for the time being. If our TP is hit we may consider turning short due to the head and shoulders formation, but only if the fundamentals support the set-up.

Friday 30th July 2021

Nice technical breakdown on the USDCAD as expected. The market is currently trading on a possible neckline of a head and shoulders formation. There is a possible short entry point at 1.2590. We will see if the DXY takes a bounce higher during tonights US session.

Wednesday 28th July 2021

The USDCAD is still trading on the key trend line support. There is a possible bear flag structure forming so we need to be aware of a deeper correction.

Monday 26th July

The USDCAD is trading at the lower end of a rising channel structure.  MACD is suggesting further downside but it is far too early to pick a direction. The economic data points coming from the US will provide the next move. Oil prices recovering also put strength back into the CAD. There could be a breakdown play if the DXY finally moves to the downside over the coming days.

Thursday 22nd July 2021

The USDCAD is a tricky one to pick at the moment, oil prices recovered overnight putting pressure on the USDCAD. Clearly, the USDCAD has broken a long term downward trend, but I am not confident enough to go long due to the rising wedge on the DXY.

Thursday 8th July 2021

The weekly charts are looking very bullish for the USDCAD. Double bottom alongside a bullish breakout from the falling channel structure. This should play into our NZDCAD long trade as well. Crude oil appears to have reached a possible top which should weaken the CAD due to the correlation.

Friday 25th June 2021

The USDCAD appears to have broken to the upside of a bull flag structure that aligns with the DXY. There is also a trend line support coming into play. Our preferred trade is the EURUSD due to oil prices supporting a stronger CAD.

Tuesday 1st June 2021

The USDCAD remains at the key 1.2000 support zone. This is a trade set-up we are waiting for. The structure looks like a classic long term flat correction with the ABC structure (see the second chart). Wave A and B are made up of 3 waves with wave C breaking down into 5 sub-waves. This suggests a reversal opportunity may occur in the near future. There is a possibility of 1 further decline which will take out all of the buyers in the market before reversing higher.

Wednesday 26th May 2021

The USDCAD is trading inside a short term triangle formation at a key support zone. There is no trading opportunity on the USDCAD until a breakout on either side of the triangle is confirmed.

Wednesday 19th May 2021

The USDCAD is teasing a breakout from a smaller falling channel formation. On the breakout, the pair could rise to the 1.2200 resistance initially. This also plays into our CADJPY short position.

Tuesday 4th May 2021

The USDCAD is trading on a key support zone, if the DXY breaks higher with the inverse head and shoulders formation the USDCAD could rally higher. However, the pair remains in a strong downwards trend so be aware of limited upside for the time being.

Friday 30th April 2021

The USDCAD has broken to the downside of the top wedge line, meaning the long trade is now invalid. The pair is approaching key support at 1.2246 and 1.2064, so be aware of a further decline. We may only consider going long if the DXY picks up some momentum to the upside. For the time being, we will remain on the sidelines, however, the USDCAD will stay on our radar for a reversal opportunity next week.

Wednesday 28th April 2021

The USDCAD has been a tricky one lately. The pair is now trading on the broken negative trendline. I guess trend lines can be subjective so we will keep a close eye to see if a recovery occurs over the coming days. There is also a double bottom structure which may result in a reversal opportunity.

Wednesday 21st April 2021

The USDCAD is tracking well at the moment. Ideally, we would like to see a move towards the 1.2725 resistance. The bull flag breakout suggests momentum is with the bulls.

Thursday 15th April 2021

The long idea on the USDCAD can still be valid in the DXY faces a corrective rally higher from the support zone highlighted in the DXY tab. We will consider going long here if the USDCAD breaks the 1.2575 resistance. The 1.2737 resistance can provide a target for any TP.

Tuesday 13th April 2021

The USDCAD is setting up a pennant formation. The pair ticks the box for a bullish run higher, despite pairs like the EURUSD and AUDUSD setting up a bearish technical structure for the USD. The move will most likely depend on the direction of crude oil. IF there is a run higher we want to be able to capitalise on this as the breakout from the falling wedge has been confirmed. Keep a close eye on any breakout of the pennant formation.

On the flip side, if the USDCAD breaks to the downside of the triangle the bullish setup becomes invalid.

Monday 12th April 2021

No significant change on the USDCAD, the price action has been very choppy but the pair is still trading above the falling wedge structure. Therefore we still see the possibility of a run higher. We will be using the 1.2610 resistance as a level to go long in the market (see the 1-hour chart below).

Thursday 8th April 2021

USDCAD is making progress. The pair appear to be struggling to break above the 1.2630 resistance so we will watch carefully for any reversals. We are risk-free in the market on this one with the SL at break even.

Tuesday 6th April 2021

No change on the USDCAD, the pair are edging down the trend line support. The USDCAD failed to break above the 1.2615 resistance which would have provided a green light to go long on the pair. This will remain our trigger point, for the time being, we don’t see any trading opportunity.

Thursday 1st April 2021

The USDCAD is retesting the broken wedge formation suggesting a bullish breakout is on the cards. Nothing is confirmed just yet. We would need to see a move back above the 1.2615 resistance before we consider going long on the pair.

Tuesday 30th March 2021

The USDCAD is still capped underneath the negative trend line resistance (depending on your trendline). The breakout has not been convincing, generally, once a trend line is broken there will be a surge in the currency pair as buyers step into the market. The next move on the USDCAD will depend on the DXY and Oil prices. Oil has recovered some what and looks bullish so we are expecting the USDCAD to remain at its current level for the time being.

Wednesday 24th March 2021

There has been a strong rally on the USDCAD towards the top end of the falling wedge formation. Weaker oil prices and a stronger USD has given the pair a bullish sentiment. However, we are yet to see any breakout to suggest a reversal in trend. Let’s see how this unfolds this week.

Monday 22nd March 2021

The USDCAD reversed on the 1.2370 support and has moved back into the falling wedge formation. Price is continuing to compress inside the wedge. We see no trading opportunities on the USDCAD just yet but the pair remain on our radar for a larger reversal in the long term.

Tuesday 16th March 2021

The USDCAD remains under pressure and is still trading inside the falling wedge formation. The next key support zone comes in at 1.2420 and 1.2370. We will remain on the sidelines on this one for the time being.

Thursday 11th March 2021

The USDCAD is currently trading on a key support zone at 1.2620. Technically this appears to be an opportunity for a long trade, however, we remain unbiased just due to the current set up on the USD index.

We can still see a valid inverted head and shoulders formation which we were stopped out of last week, so these technicals are suggesting a bullish bias. Let’s see if this support zone holds before making any trading decisions.

 

AUDUSD

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Monday 27th June

The AUDUSD has potentially set up a morning star candlestick formation on the weekly time frame. The morning star candle can indicate a reversal opportunity out of a bearish trend. The Evening star candlestick formation can indicate a reversal from a bullish trend. We are already short the US Dollar on the USDCAD and EURUSD, however, the AUDUSD is also indicating a period of US dollar weakness which supports our positions.

Tuesday 21st June 2022

Similar to the EURUSD, the AUDUSD has possibly set up an a-b-c corrective decline. One of the reasons I am assuming it is a corrective decline is due to the triangle structure in wave b. Although our trade moved back to breakeven, I am looking for a re-entry on this pair this week with a good risk v reward scenario. If the Elliott wave structure is correct, the AUDUSD is about to rally higher to finish the wave C counter trend.

Friday 10th June

The B wave triangle has unfolded as expected. I am still looking for further downside into the 0.7030 support level, once the AUDUSD reaches this zone there is a possible buy trade setup – depending on how the DXY performs. The stop loss can be moved  to breakeven now.

Monday 6th June

The AUDUSD  has reached a mirror resistance at the 0.7270 level. There was a fake breakdown last week so I will be watching for another opportunity to get into a long USD trade. If we consider going short on the AUDJPY I will not enter this position as well, I will look at pairs like the USDCAD or EURUSD.

Monday 16th May

Similar to the US stock market, the AUDUSD has possibly completed a 5 wave decline, so we can expect an ABC corrective rally at least or a new bullish sequence to the upside. The DXY has been relentlessly rallying over the past couple of months due to inflation and interest rate concerns, so I am cautious to call a top in the DXY just yet. However, the majority of USD pairs appear to favour a move against the USD over the next couple of weeks. I am looking at the AUDUSD and GBPUSD for long trade opportunities today. A rally on the AUDUSD supports or long trade on the S&P500.

Monday 9th May 2022

The AUDUSD is a trade that got away from me, there wasn’t a sizeable corrective rally to sell into on this one for a good entry point. The AUDJPY is lagging behind and I am determined to position well on that pair. The AUDUSD should be heading sub 0.69 over the coming weeks. Technically speaking there is a head and shoulders formation in play which indicates further downside.

 

Monday 25th April

The AUDUSD turned south aggressively as expected however our short position did not activate. The AUD is running lower along side equities which are looking fragile at the moment. The expectation of larger interest rate hikes is setting into the market and the DXY is continuing to surge to the upside. I prefer the look of the AUDJPY due to the risk v reward ratio, however both are looking attractive for shorts against the AUD.

Wednesday 13th April

The initial 5 wave decline on the AUDUSD moved further than I initially expected, however the price action is now running higher. We need to see the rally move in 3 waves labelled a-b-c to set up a selling opportunity. We have our SELL LIMIT ready to go, however I may look to re-adjust over the next day or two depending on the price action.

Saturday 9th March

There has been a clean 5 wave decline on the AUDUSD, we are expecting a counter trend rally into the 0.7490-0.7540 level next week which could provide a shorting opportunity. There is a similar opposite trade setup on the USDCAD as well. We will see which one provides the best risk v reward ratio.

Tuesday 29th March

We have left the AUDUSD to unfold further due to the AUD rallying across the board. Most likely due to higher commodity prices and signals from the RBA that they will begin unwilling stimulus. Technically speaking, the AUDUSD has reached a double top level and set up a bearish evening star candle stick formation. We can consider going short at the bottom of yesterdays wick low.

Thursday 10th March

Following on from the relationship between gold and the AUDUSD. Gold has reached a major double top and is facing some extreme selling pressure. This is pushing the AUDUSD lower as well. From the peak at 0.7440, we can count a 5 wave decline followed by an ABC corrective rally into the 61% FIB level. This indicates another 5 wave decline should occur. We have just activated a short on the NZDUSD which has a similar set-up to the AUDUSD.

Monday 7th March

The AUD has been rallying higher despite the risk-off market sentiment and stronger DXY, the AUD is generally the currency that suffers losses during a negative environment. The DXY has surged to the upside, and strangely the AUDUSD has also been moving alongside it. The reason is possibly due to rising gold prices. Australia is a global leader in the production of bauxite, iron ore, lithium, gold, silver, and copper. The AUD has been moving in step with gold prices. Gold has already broken to the upside of a major negative trend line resistance, if gold continues moving to the upside it is likely the AUD will breakout from the negative trend line as well. The AUDUSD has set up a bullish divergence on the weekly time frame.

Monday 28th February

The AUD has been a very tricky trade recently as it has not been moving alongside the stock markets and its general risk-off sentiment. There is a possible triangle formation setting up, but the main technical structure we need to be aware of is the negative trend line resistance. For now, we will stay clear of the AUD until a clearer setup appears.

Friday 24th February

The AUDUSD and AUDJPY has did not turn to the downside, slightly confusing and frustrating. Generally the AUD is the main casualty in a risk-off market environment. There is a rising trend line support coming into play on the AUDJPY so there is still a chance of a move lower if that is taken out.

Monday 21st February

We were tracking the AUDUSD for a short trade last week which did not play out as expected. The C wave top is our bearish invalidation point, any move above here takes out the bearish outlook. Personally, I found the move higher on the AUD strange due to the current fundamentals, generally the AUD is hit the hardest during times of political uncertainty, war/conflict. We will keep an eye on this pair this week for another possible shorting opportunity.

Monday 14th February

The AUDUSD appears to have completed a simple ABC corrective rally. The breakdown from the rising channel structure also suggests a change in trend. We are already short on the NZDUSD and are looking to get into the market here on the AUDUSD today. Again, the AUD, NZD and CAD all look vulnerable to a bearish move to the tensions across Europe and expectations of a larger interest rate hike from the FED in March.

Friday 11th February

The AUDUSD moved into the expected resistance zone before facing a sharp reversal. I can count a 3 wave rally, the first wave has a 5 wave structure, second wave has a 3 wave structure and the final wave has a 5 wave structure. If the AUDUSD breaks the rising trend line support this will be classed as a corrective rally, and prices should be heading lower. We have placed a short trade on the NZDUSD which has a very similar setup.

Tuesday 8th February

The AUDUSD is running higher along with other USD pairs. A break above the 0.7160 resistance would indicate a possible move towards 0.7260. It is far too early to call a bottom on the AUDUSD, there needs to be a major 5 wave sequence to the upside, at the moment we can only count wave 1 and 2, or wave a and b of a corrective rally. There is still a strong chance of this turning south especially considering the tensions across Europe. We are sitting on the side lines on this pair and waiting for the price action to unfold further.

Wednesday 2nd February

The RBA interest rate decision/policy statement yesterday surprised the market and the AUD is in a bullish mode. The RBA has agreed to end its quantitative easing program – which reduces the money pumped into the system. A reduction of the money supply tends to strengthen the currency. This is the first step that a central bank will generally take before considering raising interest rates. Therefore, in the short term, the AUD may see further upside. There is a bullish divergence coming into play on the daily time frame.

Monday 31st January

The AUDUSD is trading on a very important support level at .7000. We do not see any trading opportunity here just yet so we need to remain patient and sit tight. Our focus over the next couple of days is metals, especially gold and silver.

Thursday 27th January

The AUDUSD has broken down from the bear flag structure and we are active in a short position now. Our SL is above the most recent swing high at 0.7180, therefore any more above that level will set up a higher high and invalidate our short bias.

 Monday 24th January

The AUDUSD looks set for a breakout to the downside of the rising bear flag structure. As highlighted last week, we can count a 5 wave decline from the 0.7310 peak, followed by a corrective rally and a lower high. These are bearish technicals and indicate a move to the downside will occur this week. We are short on the AUDJPY, depending on how the market trades this week I may look to execute a trade here on the AUDUSD as well.

Friday 21st January

The AUDUSD has set up a 5 wave decline followed by a bearish breakdown. Once the 0.7170 support is taken out it should open the doors for a deep correction. The AUD is currently in freefall and we will stick to the AUDJPY for now with our double position.

Monday 17th January

The AUDUSD turned south sharply after setting up a pin bar structure. We shorted previously and was stopped out at breakeven, we will possibly look to get back into this trade once the bear flag structure is broken to the downside. We are still short on the AUDJPY so let’s see how that plays out over the next couple of days first before making a decision on this setup. I prefer the EURUSD for a short at the moment.

Friday 14th January

There is a daily pin bar structure which can indicate a reversal in the market. So again, we need to watch out for any shorting opportunities. This will depend largely on the direction of the DXY.

Monday 10th January

The AUDUSD has broken down from the bear flag structure and is currently sitting in profit. Our SL is set to break even, there is a chance of a pullback to retest the bear flag structure which may take our position out. If this does occur we will look to reload for the next move lower. We will sit tight on this position for now with 0 risk in the market.

Thursday 6th January

The AUDUSD has turned town as expected and is currently tackling the 0.7180 support zone. We should see an acceleration to the downside here and a move towards the 0.700 support. The market is moving into a risk-off sentiment which impacts the AUD the most. Sit tight on this position for the time being.

Tuesday 4th January

The AUDUSD is trading on the key 0.7190 support level. A break beneath this zone will indicate another move to the downside is on the cards. We are watching for possible shorting opportunities either here or on gold. The bearish invalidation level is the most recent swing high at 0.7277, we will be using this level as a potential stop-loss if we enter a short trade.

Monday 13th December

The AUDUSD has broken above two important negative trend lines. The MACD has crossed over and is turning higher, both are bullish reversal signals in the short term. For a continuation to the upside we would need to see the DXY breakdown from the triangle structure. Equities are very much in risk-on and the SP500, NASDAQ and DOW should be heading back into record-high territory which is also helping the AUD strengthen across the board.

Wednesday 8th December

I have not done an update on the AUDUSD for a week or so, I have been waiting for the tag on the 0.7000 support which has now occurred. There has been a strong bounce on the 0.7000 support zone and there appears to be a breakout play to the upside taking place. Once the second trendline has broken to the upside I am watching for a buying opportunity. The commodity-related currencies have been the top performers overnight as investors turned risk on. We will be monitoring the DXY, once a breakdown has occurred this is going to be our long trade setup.

Tuesday 29th November

AUDUSD has broken down from the rising channel structure and appears to be moving towards the 0.700 support. There are no good entry points on the short side just yet so we need to remain patient and wait for the next setup.

Friday 11th November

I haven’t updated the AUDUSD for a while, there is a possible bear flag structure in play. A breakdown would indicate a move towards the 0.7000 support. The bear flag structure is in 3 waves which indicates a corrective rally. This could be a setup for next week depending on how the DXY moves.

Wednesday 6th October 2021

The AUDUSD has been in a corrective decline since March this year. As you can see the AUDUSD is moving towards the bullish breakout level. There has been a number of higher lows which indicates a bullish reversal. Australia is beginning to open up borders which will attract foreign interest in the AUD, furthermore the Australian trade surplus (imports v exports) yesterday indicated a large rise in exports. The supply and demand of a currency are impacted majorly by the imports v exports ratio. If exports outweigh imports it indicates the demand is higher. Australia reported a record trade surplus yesterday of 15.077 billion AUD, driven majorly by rising commodity prices. Therefore, from a fundamental point of view, the AUD is one currency we know is in high demand.

 

Friday 1st October 2021

The AUDUSD has not made a lower low like the EURUSD or GBPUSD which is the sign of a bullish trend reversal. The 23% FIB retracement is providing support. We see the AUDJPY as a bullish set-up, and the AUDUSD looks fairly similar. However, before considering going long I would like to see a move above the 0.7318 resistance zone.

Tuesday 28th September

The AUDUSD has broken to the upside of a falling channel structure which does indicate a change in trend. Again, it is difficult to go long here as the DXY is close to the invalidation level. Only if the DXY begins to decline can we look to start buying the AUDUSD or EURUSD again.

Thursday 16th September

The AUDUSD has pulled back to the 61% FIB retracement after rejecting the top of the declining channel structure. As we favour a decline in the USD we are watching for a possible breakout play here. The USDCAD is our preferred set-up, but we will be watching the AUDUSD for a breakout as well. If the AUDUSD rallies to the upside it would indicate a risk-on market sentiment, which would support higher equity prices.

Friday 3rd September

The AUDUSD is moving into a resistance zone, I wouldn’t be surprised it there was a break through especially if the DXY continues its downward trend. We are waiting for a pull back on either the AUDUSD or NZDUSD to possibly buy into over the next couple of weeks.

Thursday 2nd September

We are into a fresh month so I thought it would be important to take a look at the longer-term chart, especially as our SL was hit yesterday on the AUDUSD. Last months close was a very bullish or reversal candlestick formation. There is a clear Doji candle that can indicate a change in trend. Technically there is possible a large inverted head and shoulders structure – especially when looking at the NZDUSD, check the chart beneath.

NZDUSD – Monthly Chart – Potential Trading Plan

This pair is setting up a very bullish technical outlook. Especially if you consider the RBNZ who are looking at raising interest rates in the near future. The RBNZ is ahead of other central banks. We can also see a Doji monthly candle followed by a bullish hammer candle and a falling wedge breakout. Again, we can see a clear inverted head and shoulders structure.

NZDUSD 1 Hour Chart

There has been a sharp rise in the NZDUSD, for us to consider going long here we would like to see a corrective decline to buy into. There will be a pullback at some point providing an entry point. It could possibly occur over the next few days due to the NFP in the US. If we can get a long trade in there will be a really good risk V reward on a swing trade opportunity.

Wednesday 1st September

If you check the chart below from last week, this played out as expected. We can now count another 5 wave rally and are expecting a larger correction over the next day or two. The rising wedge structure and the DXY are indicating a pull back on the AUDUSD.

Thursday 26th August 2021

The rally on the AUDUSD is made up of 5 waves, so we are anticipating a possible corrective decline over the next 24 hours. If the AUDUSD sets up a 3 wave correction, similar to the GBPJPY over the past day, we can look to go long at the B wave top. This would also indicate a stronger DXY, we will keep a close eye on this one. Stocks are in a very bullish mode leading into the FED Jackson Hole meeting, therefore the AUD will most likely move with them.

Tuesday 17th August 2021

The AUDUSD is holding support at 0.7318 leading into the RBA minutes release at 11:30 this morning. We don’t see any trading opportunity here just yet unless the pair breaks the negative trend line resistance or breaks down from support. The AUDUSD has been a tricky pair to trade as it is trading inside a range between 0.74-0.73. We will wait to see how this unfolds over the next couple of days.

Monday 9th August 2021

The AUDUSD is moving as expected breaking down from the bear flag structure. Not much to report here, we have moved the SL to breakeven and just need to remain patient. A break back inside the bear flag will invalidate the short position.

Wednesday 28th July 2021

A triangle structure is forming on the AUDUSD, ideally, the pair will break out to the upside which will play into our long trade setup. If there is a breakdown from here we will look to close the position early.

Thursday 22nd July 2021

The AUDUSD is holding the 1.27% fib extension support, which is also the bottom of the pitchfork. Technically this could be a nice entry for a long trade, however, the lockdowns in Australia are of concern from a fundamental perspective. The 15-minute charts are showing a bullish inverted head and shoulders setup (second chart down).

Tuesday 20th July

AUDUSD is trading on the 1.27% extension which is also a declining channel support line. A break down from here will open the doors for a move towards the 0.7150 level. There is not a great risk v reward trade set up here so we need to wait for the currency pair to unfold.

Monday 19th July 2021

The AUDUSD is still trading lower whilst the RSI continues to create a bullish divergence. This will be on our watchlist for a long opportunity, however, we need to see the DXY break lower and the AUDUSD to breakout to the upside of the falling wedge.

Friday 9th July 2021

The Australian lockdowns and demand for USD are pushing the AUDUSD lower. We see the possibility of a final decline to the 0.73-0.72 region. However, I am not interested in shorting, I want to prepare for a long trade opportunity. A bottom should be found soon on this pair.

Tuesday 6th July 2021

It appears as though the correction on the AUDUSD is over. From an Elliott wave perspective, there has now been a 5 wave decline from the B wave top. A move above wave iv would provide a possible entry point. Todays RBA interest rate decision and statement and the FOMC minutes will provide some volatility.

Friday 2nd July 2021

The AUDUSD is almost at a 1 to 1 parity of the A wave. Which means the pair could find support soon. The large correction is potentially almost complete, however, there could be a final push towards the downside due to the US NON-FARM tonight. This would also align with gold. Generally the AUDUSD and gold move in a very similar fashion. We will be waiting for long opportunities over the coming weeks.

Wednesday 23rd June 2021

The AUDUSD bounced from the 78% FIB retracement, however, we are yet to see a five-wave rise which would suggest bulls are back. The structure is only subdivided into 3 waves which says a possible correction. Therefore we have to be aware of a further decline before a recovery. The structure inside the blue circle has not unfolded enough to consider a trade just yet. We will remain on the sidelines for the time being.

Monday 21st June 2021

The longer-term picture is showing the AUDUSD resting on the 78% FIB retracement which is a key support zone. I don’t see any trading opportunity just yet on the pair. We will see how the DXY develops over the coming days.

Tuesday 15th June 2021

Our position on the AUDUSD just missed the activation by 8 pips. We will stay on the sidelines until a clearer direction is formed on the DXY. The triangle is still intact therefore we will be waiting for any breakout play to the upside.

Thursday 10th June 2021

The AUDUSD has no real significant change, the triangle formation is still unfolding. The BUY ZONE remains that the 0.7680 support or on the breakout above the triangle. We will need to sit on our hands for the time being.

Tuesday 8th June 2021

Here is a possible scenario for the AUDUSD. A triangle formation can only occur in wave b or wave 4. Therefore if this triangle is going to play out it suggests further upside once wave d and e completes. We will keep this on the back burner this week and look to buy the AUDUSD at the wave e low.

Monday 7th June 2021

Only one word to describe the AUDUSD and that is a mess. Since mid-April, the AUDUSD has been chopping sideways with fake breakouts to the upside and downside. Economic data has been improving here in Australia, and the July RBA meeting is going to be a crucial data point. The RBA will decide if they will continue with QE (quantitative easing or money printing). If they decide to take their foot off the pedal the AUD could strengthen across the board.

Thursday 3rd June 2021

The AUDUSD has been a pretty tricky pair to trade over recent weeks with no clear direction or trend. The pair appears to be trapped between the 0.78-0.77 range. The economic data points coming from the US over the next couple of days should provide a new trend to buy into.

Monday 24th May 2021

The AUDUSD is testing a very significant trendline and appears to be breaking down. Once a breakdown occurs, we can look to use 0.7600 and 0.7530 as target levels for our short position. From an Elliott wave perspective, the AUDUSD could be trading inside a large corrective structure before the next move higher. The head and shoulders formation highlighted last week also remains valid for further downside.

Tuesday 18th May 2021

The AUDUSD is moving higher based on a weaker USD. The RBA minutes didn’t provide the fuel the AUD needed to surge higher. Due to the USD approaching a major support zone and the AUDUSD approaching the resistance line of 0.7820, there is a possibility of the head and shoulders formation playing out. We will be looking to enter a short trade at 0.7820 later this evening.

Sunday 16th May 2021

The AUDUSD is setting up a couple of bearish structures whilst trading along a rising trend line support. We can also see a head and shoulders formation in play. The H&S formation will remain valid unless the upper trend line resistance is broken at roughly 0.7900. This also aligns with the AUDJPY which is trading inside a large rising wedge structure – see second chart. If the rising wedge structure is broken to the downside the market may see a larger risk off move.

Wednesday 5th May 2021

The AUDUSD is consolidating between a possible bull flag structure. Looking across the board the AUD looks ready to run higher. The RBA has increased their economic projections which should provide a bullish outlook for the AUD. Keep a close eye on any breakout play here.

Tuesday 27th April 2021

The AUDUSD has moved into our target range but didn’t quite reach the 0.7835 resistance. Ideally, I would like to see a large correction from this zone over the coming days, but it will depend on the DXY and the FED statement. I will keep you posted if we look to reenter any position.

Monday 26th April 2021

The AUDUSD has turned bullish with a breakout from a falling wedge structure, similar to the breakout back on the 15th April. Our target remains around the 0.7840 resistance. The longer-term head and shoulders formation could still be on the cards which was highlighted last week. We will need to see how the market reacts around 0.7840 before considering going short here. It will largely depend on how the DXY is behaving.

Friday 23rd April 2021

The AUDUSD has broken down from the smaller head and shoulders formation after rejecting the 0.7760 resistance. The market is at a cross roads with the DXY testing a negative trend line resistance. IF the DXY breaks out to the upside expect further downside on this currency pair, along with EURUSD and the NZDUSD.

Wednesday 21st April 2021

There has been a large technical rejection from 0.7800 on the AUDUSD. This looks like a very clean head and shoulders formation, however, this would suggest a large run higher on the DXY. The AUD has weakened across the board due to the run higher in the VIX (volatility index) which has created a risk-off sentiment.

AUDUSD 1 Hour Charts

There is a possible head and shoulders formation setting up on the shorter-term time frame. A correction towards the 0.7760 resistance could provide a nice entry for a short opportunity. I will keep you posted on any entries into the trade.

Thursday 15th April 2021

I am not one for checking the 5-minute charts however we are on track for a rise towards 0.7755 initially. The AUDUSD could face some resistance here. We can now move our SL to 0.7715 guaranteeing 80 pips profit. Nice work.

Monday 12th April 2021

The AUD is being very stubborn at the moment with the AUDUSD still trading inside the falling wedge structure. No real change here to our analysis, the long scenario is still in play. Once the market breaks out to the upside there is an opportunity to build into the long position further. Until then we will remain patient with our open trade.

Friday 9th April 2021

No real change here so far, we are waiting for a breakout from the falling wedge formation.

Thursday 8th April 2021

The AUDUSD failed to breakout from the negative trend line resistance. We are now waiting for a move towards the 0.7565 support, or a break above 0.7660 before looking to go long in the market again. The 0.7565 support could provide an inverted head and shoulders formation, which is a bullish signal.

Tuesday 6th April 2021

We are back in on the AUDUSD and the market appears to be moving higher off the back of a weaker USD and a risk-on sentiment. The AUD should benefit from risk assets moving higher. We need to be aware of a bull flag structure coming into play, however, there is also a possible bearish head and shoulders formation setting up at the 0.7815 resistance.

Thursday 1st April 2021

The AUDUSD is currently running close to the SL. We will maintain the position for the time being. If there is a breakdown from here it would suggest the DXY will continue higher, we will then turn out attention to the USDCAD.

Tuesday 30th March 2021

The AUDUSD is trading higher from the support zone of 0.7580 which also appears to be a rising trend line. Global equities enjoyed a risk-on move overnight which is providing some strength into the AUD. We will be looking to position on the AUDUSD today as the risk V reward looks appealing.

Friday 26th March 2021

The AUDUSD is trading on a fairly important support level. Ideally, we would like to see the USD move lower to provide a buying opportunity, it is too early to commit to a long position on the AUDUSD just yet.

Wednesday 24th March 2021

The AUDUSD has broken down from the pennant formation as the risk-off sentiment continues. We are waiting to see how the market reacts around the 0.7560 and 0.7450 support zones. This pair are on our watch list for possible buying opportunities once the DXY has topped out.

Monday 22nd March 2021

The AUDUSD had a strong impulsive move higher post FOMC announcement last week but has since reversed those gains. We are now tracking a possible pennant formation. Key zones to be aware of is the 0.7690 support and the 0.7795 resistance. We will be looking for breakouts on either side before entering a position in the market. The AUDUSD tends to follow the US stock market in either a risk-on or risk-off sentiment. We will see how the US stock market performs tonight.

Thursday 18th March 2021

The AUDUSD has broken out of the bull flag structure as we anticipated. Unfortunately, our SL was taken in the process. Very frustrating. We may continue to see further upside as equities are moving in a risk-on sentiment.

Tuesday 16th March 2021

 

The AUDUSD has a potential bull flag formation. IF global equities continue to move higher we can expect the AUD to move with it. Initially, the 0.7830 resistance will act as a short term target. The bull flag structure looks corrective in nature suggesting we should be heading higher.

 

Monday 15th March 2021

 

The AUDUSD is trading in “no-mans-land” between 0.7723 and 0.7800. If the bearish level is taken out to the downside it will suggest the recent rally is just a corrective rally and we could be set for another decline. However, if the 0.7800 resistance is taken out then bulls will be back in control, and the market may push back towards the 0.8000 resistance.

Wednesday – March 10th 2021

The AUDUSD 1 hour charts are showing a potentially corrective structure lower. The reason we believe the structure is corrective is due to the overlapping wave formations. A corrective structure is followed by a continuation of the trend in the direction of the overall trend, in this case higher.

So we see this set back as a possible correction, rather than a top in the market.

AUDUSD BULLS may regain some control especially if the market breaks the 0.7725 resistance.

EURUSD

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Monday 27th June 2022

The EURUSD declined in 3 waves which can be labelled a-b-c and set up a higher low. These are both bullish signals in the short term. We have our eyes on the 1.0603 resistance as a potential second buy zone with our take profit targets set at the 1.0900 level. The bullish scenario aligns with other USD pairs like the USDCAD and AUDUSD.

Tuesday 21st June

The EURUSD has set up a higher low from the wave (v) low at 1.0350. The recent decline also appears to be in 3 waves which can be labelled as an a-b-c corrective decline. Therefore, we are expecting a reasonable rally into the 1.0900 resistance zone over the next week. There is a second buy zone at the 1.0603 resistance level – if the trade moves as expected we will be looking to add a position around that area.

Tuesday 30th May 2022

The EURUSD has moved into its first resistance zone at the 1.08 level. There are two trend line resistance levels in play, therefore if the DXY takes a technical bounce to the upside it is likely the EURUSD will face a corrective pullback. For us to consider going long for a long term position in the market there needs to be a higher low and a 3 wave corrective decline.

Friday 20th May

The triangle formation on the left-hand side indicates the final move lower was the 5th wave of a bearish move. Triangle formations can only occur in wave B or wave 4. SO, with that in mind I am assuming either a larger ABC corrective rally is going to unfold, or a new bullish trend to the upside. The EURUSD has possibly set up the first 5 wave bullish structure, we have closed our initial long trade as I am now waiting for a corrective decline to buy back into with a tighter SL.

Wednesday 18th May

The EURUSD has had a sharp turn to the upside as the DXY broke down from the rising wedge formation. To be honest, the majority of USD pairs look good for long trades against the DXY. There is a chance of a long term trend change taking place so we do not need to rush any long positions. Once there has been a clear 5 wave rally on the 1 hour chart we can buy on a corrective pull back.

Monday 9th May

Back to basics on the EURUSD. The historic low of 1.0350 appears to be acting as a magnet and I am expecting the price action to approach the lows over the next week. There will possibly be a technical bounce at that level, however, momentum is well and truly with the bears on this one. I will keep track on the EURUSD over the next couple of days and wait for the price action to unfold further before updating the Elliott wave count.

Saturday 9th April

In theory, the EURUSD should be approaching the end of a + year long declining trend. It can not go beneath the start of the bullish trend which began at 1.0627. We are actively watching for a long trade setup on this pair, if we can catch this right it will set up a huge opportunity over the coming weeks.

Wednesday 6th April 2022

After one more high, the EURUSD is on the decline to potentially finish a year + long bear market for the pair. We are not looking to trade on the SELL side, the bigger opportunity is to wait for a long trade setup which should take place over the next week. This will depend largely on the direction of the DXY.

Tuesday 22nd March

The EURUSD is trading on a rising trend line support. The move higher is in a clear 3 wave structure which indicates a counter trend rally rather than a bullish reversal. We are watching for a breakdown from the rising trend line support over the next 24 hours. The EURUSD is still in a bearish trend until the 1.1281 resistance is taken out to the upside.

Thursday 17th March

The EURUSD is potentially very close to a major market cycle bottom. Technically, this lines up very well on the triangle formation therefore a technical bounce higher should occur at least. With our current count on the EURUSD, we are expecting a sharp turn to the upside for a multi-week/month bull market. We do not need to rush a long trade, there will be plenty of opportunities if this set-up is correct. For us to consider going long we need to see a 5 wave rally on the shorter-term time frame, followed by an ABC corrective decline.

Friday 4th March 2022

The EURUSD is still edging lower but inside a falling wedge structure. Any breakout to the upside will indicate a bottom is possibly in on the pair. The US reports its next round of NFP and unemployment data later this evening which will result in volatility across all USD pairs. The EURUSD is still trading south, however we are waiting for a long trade setup.

Monday 28th February

We are still watching the EURUSD for a long trade setup, however the recent wick down is suggesting the bearish trend is not yet complete. We are watching for a breakout above the negative trend line resistance, similar to the AUDUSD. The fake breakout last week failed to hold the trend line resistance.

Tuesday 15th February

The EURUSD has finally completed a 5 wave bullish rally from the low of roughly 1.1100. This is going to provide us with an opportunity to go long for a large bullish wave to the upside, however we are first waiting for a corrective decline in 3 waves labelled a,b and c.

Tuesday 8th February

I have gone for a cheeky trade here on the EURUSD looking for a final push into the 1.1500 resistance zone before a large corrective decline. Triangles can only occur in certain waves, wave 4 or wave b, therefore the evidence suggests this triangle is wave 4 of a 5 wave rally. Lets see how this plays out over the next 24 hours. We will be looking to buy the DXY leading into the inflation data later in the week.

Wednesday 2nd February 2022

The strong rally on the EURUSD is suggesting a bottom on the EURUSD is possibly in. It is far too early to call, however a rally above the negative trend line resistance, and the wave 4 top will suggest a new bullish cycle is underway. This is going to be a BIG play for us going forward. I don’t want to get too excited just yet so we need to see how the DXY performs over the next few days. Initially, I was expecting one more low into the 1.1000 support level, I will let this play out for a day or two before making a trading decision.

Monday 31st January

Although we had a cracking week last week this one got away from me, slightly frustrating. We picked up a small win here but could have been a lot larger. This appears to be playing out and we are expecting another final push to the downside over the next week.

Thursday 27th January

The EURUSD is moving aggressively lower, unfortunately, our short position did not activate. I am waiting for a technical bounce higher to get back into this position as we are expecting a move into the 1.1000 support zone.

Monday 24th January

Our second attempt at the short of the EURUSD is tracking well. We are looking to build another position once the bear flag structure breaks to the downside. There is a chance of a possible corrective structure/rise first, as we can count a 5 wave decline from the top of 1.1482. Sit tight on our position for the moment, ill keep you posted on any additional plays on this pair.

Friday 21st January

Finally getting the downside we were hoping for. This setup should continue to play out and the move should take out the 1.1185 support zone. We may trim some profits if we reach that target initially. Tensions in Europe are possibly putting pressure on the EUR at the moment.

Monday 17th January

The EURUSD rejected the negative trend line resistance at the same time the DXY bounced from the major support zone. There is still a strong possibility of a move to the downside, so we are waiting to go short later this evening. The recent move higher can still be classed as a corrective formation.

Friday 14th January

The EURUSD has reached a negative trend line resistance as the DXY declined across the board. There is a chance of a technical bounce from this level. Looking across a number of USD pairs, this appears to be a similar story. We will be watching for signs of a shorting opportunity as the fundamentals support a higher DXY.

Monday 10th January

There was a spike higher on the EURUSD post NFP data on Friday night, however until the 1.1386 resistance is taken out the bearish scenario still remains valid. We will stay short for the time being expecting an additional move to the downside. We may look to add a second position once the market begins to move south with a slightly better risk v reward.

Thursday 6th January

The overall picture on the EURUSD indicates a bottom is near, however, the decline is not yet complete. We are expecting at least another decline into the 23% FIB retracement level at roughly 1.11-1.10. The 1 hour chart shows a 5 wave decline and an ABC corrective rally, this tells us a bearish move to the downside is possibly underway after 2 weeks of consolidation. 1.1386 is our bearish invalidation level.

Wednesday 29th December

The EURUSD is moving in a very similar fashion to the DXY, we can see a pennant structure and compression which indicates a breakout is around the corner. The RSI is trading on the trend line support, a breakdown will indicate a final move lower before a larger reversal. Not much to report on this pair for the time being.

 

Monday 20th December

We are still in the bullish reversal camp for the EURUSD, however, there is a chance of one more low to come before that takes place. The EURUSD failed to break above the negative trend line resistance last week so we need to remain patient and wait for the next low. Ideally, the market will set up a bullish divergence on the daily time frame before reversing. This will stay on our watch list over the next week.

Thursday 18th December

The EURUSD has now set up a higher low which indicates a change in trend. We are already long on the AUDUSD and short on the USDCHF, however, this technical structure supports our bearish DXY bias. A break above the negative trend line resistance could open the doors for a move towards 1.146.

Monday 13th December

The GBPUSD is signalling a possible change in trend, we are playing with the idea that the EURUSD has one more low to make so we are monitoring the technicals closely. Looking across the board there are a number of pairs signalling dollar weakness. The GBPUSD has retraced to the key 61% FIB retracement and has now broken to the upside of a falling wedge structure, there is also a cross over on the MACD.

Before we can consider going long on the EURUSD there needs to be a breakout above the negative trend line resistance. The GBPUSD and AUDUSD appear to be leading the market to the upside for the time being.

 

Thursday 9th December

From an Elliott wave perspective, the EURSUD appears to be approaching a bottom after a year-long decline. There is a possibility of one more low so I do not want to enter too soon. However, this is going to be a big trade setup we are watching over the next couple of weeks. The corrective decline is in 3 waves labelled ABC and has moved into the crucial 38% FIB retracement. This structure is similar across all major pairs and the GBPUSD is also on our watch list. If you take a look at the rally on the DXY, it is also only in three waves which generally indicates a counter corrective trend rather than a long term bullish trend. What may cause the DXY to devalue? There are a number of stories floating around about deflation due to huge stockpiles of commodities and goods around the world. Although inflation is a major theme at the moment, I am watching for a deflation scenario.

Monday 6th December

There was no significant change on the EURUSD since Friday’s post despite the AUDUSD and NZDUSD taking a deep turn lower. There is still a possible inverted head and shoulders formation in play on the shorter-term time frame which aligns with the H&S structure on the DXY. We will be looking to go long if there is a break above the bull flag structure.

Friday 3rd December

There was a technical bounce on the declining trendline structure on the EURUSD and the MACD has crossed over to the upside. These are the early signs of a change in trend, of course, this would require a significant weakness in the DXY. This is on our watch list for a long trade over the coming days/weeks.

There is possibly an inverted head and shoulders formation in play on the shorter-term time frame. This is a play I am watching leading into tonights NFP release.

The GBPUSD also has a couple of bullish reversal signals, the falling wedge formation alongside the bullish divergence on the MACD.

Tuesday 23rd November

The EURUSD is working its way down a fairly historic trendline that was previously used as resistance on the weekly charts. The EURUSD is also coming back into the 32-23% FIB retracement zone. Bears are very much in control at the moment, we are watching for any reversal opportunity but it would depend largely on the DXY slowing down.

Monday 8th November

The EURSUD rejected the top of the channel structure and is trading beneath the 1.1600 resistance which is our bullish level. We will be looking to buy this pair once a breakout above the negative trendline occurs. This would require a breakdown from the rising trendline highlighted on the DXY.

Friday 29th October

The EURUSD is tracking well with a nice impulsive move higher. We are sitting tight on this position for the time being along with the GBPUSD. I’ll keep you posted if there are any changes to our positions.

Monday 25th October

No significant change on the EURUSD, we will be looking to enter a long trade on this pair at some stage as the correction looks complete. This is a similar setup to silver as it would require a decline on the DXY. I will keep you posted on any setup over the next day or two.

Thursday 21st October

Just playing with the idea the EURUSD could be setting up a move to the upside, which aligns with the DXY bearish bias and the NZDUSD analysis. We will be looking to get back into the EURUSD at some stage over the coming days. Ideally on a corrective pullback. Most pairs are indicating a bearish move on the DXY but it will depend on the FED’s next move.

Tuesday 14th September

The EURUSD has had a strong bounce from the 1.1760 support zone. This ticks the box for an inverted head and shoulders structure, so theoretically it can now move higher. This scenario suggests a weaker USD coming into play. Therefore we may need to use this as our bearish DXY position later this evening. We are positioned in the favour of the USD on most trades, so having this set up as a backup will help offset our current positions.

Monday 13th September

The EURUSD has broken down from the rising channel structure as expected and appears to be making its way towards the 1.1750 support. From a technical perspective, this could be an inverted head and shoulders structure setup, however, it is too early to call. We will need to see how the DXY reacts once the 1.1750 support is reached.

Wednesday 8th September

The EURUSD is trading on the inclining trendline support. A breakdown from here will open the doors for a move towards the 1.1750 support zone. Again, this setup is very similar to gold – there could be an inverted head and shoulders formation setting up. This chart also indicates a stronger USD over the next couple of days.

The GBPUSD appears to be leading the EURUSD to the downside. The GBPUSD has already broken the trendline support. The GBPUSD is slightly different as there is possibly a triangle formation in play. Just one to keep an eye on, however, we will favour the EURUSD for a long trade once it reaches the 1.1750 support.

Friday 3rd September

The EURUSD has continued to the upside and is making its way into the 1.1900-1.1950 resistance zone. Similar to the AUDUSD we will be looking for pullbacks from the level to possibly buy into. A break above the negative trend line resistance will open the doors for a move towards the 1.22 resistance zone.