Evening team,

We are focusing on the EURUSD which has revisited the inverted head and shoulder line. The initial BUY stop position is going to remain at the current level. However we are also going to add an additional position now at a lower entry point.

DXY 4 Hour Chart

As long as the DXY does not break above the 93.20 resistance we can assume the head and shoulders formation is still in play which indicates a bearish move.

EURUSD 4 Hour Chart

Trade Setup 1: BUY, market execution, current price 1.1782, stop loss 1.1712 and take profit target 1.2000

Stop loss: 70 pips

Take profit: 218 pips

15th September Analysis – Trade Setup 2

Good evening team,

Frustrating moves on the DXY overnight with a whipsaw price action. Fundamentally, the second miss on inflation last night should have provided a bullish sentiment for equities and a bearish sentiment for the USD. However, the DXY reversed unexpectedly. Next week the FED meets for a two-day meeting to discuss the economic outlook and we see the possibility of a weaker USD leading into the event. As we know, Jerome Powell generally tries to cool any concerns in the market by downplaying inflation concerns. He has spent the last 12 months pumping the stock market to record highs, therefore it is unlikely that he will be the reason it falls. Therefore, the USD could begin to see some downside leading into the event.

EURUSD – Daily Chart

The technicals are showing a declining channel formation, and there has been a strong impulsive bounce on the 1.1750 support. This support zone also sets up an inverted head and shoulders structure which would indicate a possible breakout above the declining channel trend line resistance. This also lines up with the DXY head and shoulders formation.

EURUSD 4 Hour Chart

Trade Setup: BUY STOP – Entry price 1.1845, stop loss 1.1770 and take profit 1.2000

Stop loss: 75 pips

Take profit: 160 pips

We are being careful with the positioning in this setup. I’d like to see some more upside before the trade is activated. On the bearish side, if the DXY continues rallying and the EURUSD breaks the 1.1750 support, there could be a large leg to the downside coming. So we will be prepared for both situations.

Good evening team,

The US inflation data showed another miss on the MoM report with a 0.3% increased compared to a 0.4% forecast. The stock market might not be ready for a breakdown from the rising wedge structure so we need to be prepared for another move to the upside despite all the negative economic conditions. A second miss on the inflation forecast is playing into the FED’s transitory theory meaning they could look to push back bond tapering. This is giving the stock market something to cheer about.

SP500 Daily Chart

The rising trend line has failed to break down, there has also been a doji candle close, which can indicate a reversal. So, we need to play what we see here and buy into the FED’s transitory theory.

SP500 4 Hour Chart

Trade Setup: BUY market execution, current price 4485 (Focus Markets), stop loss 4435 and take profit left open. 

Stop loss: 50 pips

We will have both a short and long trade running at the same time. Theoretically, one position should win and one should lose. Our sell trade is at breakeven, so I favour a move to the upside in the short term.

Good afternoon team,

We are taking a look at a short on the AUDUSD due to technicals and fundamentals aligning. The DXY looks set to break to the upside of an inverted head and shoulders formation which should result in a decline across USD pairs (in the favour of the USD). If you have not done so already, please read last weeks fundamental and technical report sent out on Friday via email. This outlines how fragile the global stock market is currently looking. Let me know if you have not received the report via email.

AUDUSD – Daily Chart

Technically this could be a large head and shoulders formation on the AUDUSD daily time frame. IF this plays out we could see the AUDUSD trading beneath the 0.7000 support over the coming weeks. There would need to be a significant RISK OFF move in the market for this to take place, which would indicate further downside on the SP500. This position is also supported by the setup on the DXY index.

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

Trade Setup: SELL Market execution, current price 0.7345, stop loss 0.7417 and take profit target 0.7105.

Stop loss: 72 pips

Take profit: 240 pips

Stop loss is positioned above the most recent swing high.

Good afternoon team,

As you know we have been waiting for a shorting opportunity across the equity market. Taking a look at the ASX and DAX, they appear to be leading the charge to the downside. They have both broken key rising wedge structures, and we feel the SP500 could follow suit. There are a number of fundamentals supporting a pullback in the market. Delta variant and vaccine efficiency concerns, global economic growth concerns, China increased regulation and the US debt ceiling are just a few. The rally in the USD could fuel a downswing here. The technical breakdown on the ASX and DAX may result in a risk-off decline across global equities leading into the EU and US session this evening.

ASX – Daily Chart

DAX – German Index – Daily Chart

SP500 – Daily Charts

Trade Setup: SELL Market execution, current price 4496, stop loss 4586 and take profit left open to run. 

Stop loss: 90 pips

We are looking to get in early and front-run the position, if you are a more cautious trader you may want to wait for a break of the wedge structure before shorting the market.

UPDATED POSITON

BUY Market execution, current price 1.6674, stop loss 1.6614 and take profit 1.6784-1.6834.

Stop loss: 60 pips

Take profit: 110-160 pips

Good afternoon team,

I have been watching the EURNZD today for a long trade opportunity, this is purely based on the risk-off market sentiment that occurred overnight during the crypto crash. The rally in the USD is suggesting we could see a follow-through tonight – this means weaker commodity-related currencies (AUD, NZD and CAD).

EURNZD 1 Hour Chart

BUY Market execution, current price 1.6682, stop loss 1.6622 and take profit 1.6782-1.6832.

Stop loss: 60 pips

Take profit: 100-150 pips

Good afternoon team,

We closed down the pending order on the AUDNZD for the time being, I am still of the opinion it will reverse over the next week so ill keep it on the back burner along with the NZDCAD.

I have also been watching the USDCHF for a long trade opportunity as technically this ticks all of the boxes.

DXY 4 Hour chart

The DXY has declined from its recent peak but appears to be picking up some momentum this afternoon. If the DXY breaks the negative trend line resistance we will be looking to take the USD towards the 93.20 resistance initially.

USDCHF 4 Hour chart

The 0.9118 support appears to be a key buy zone at the moment, there have been multiple touches over the past month. There is an inverted head and shoulders structure alongside a pennant formation. We are now expecting a move to the upside which aligns with the DXY. Targets can be found at 0.9290 and 0.9370.

Trade Setup: Buy market execution, current price 0.9144, stop loss 0.9080 and take profit 0.9370.

Stop loss: 64 pips

Take profit: 226 pips

Gold has recovered well from the flash crash a couple of weeks ago, and we are expecting a continuation into the 1830 resistance initially.

Gold has also set up an inverse head and shoulders structure suggesting a move to the upside will occur. The fundamentals support higher gold prices – The FED signalled they would continue asset purchases until year-end (money printing), depending on economic data.

GOLD 4 Hour chart

Gold has been consolidating between the 1820 resistance and 1810 support zones. The trend is clearly to the upside with strong impulsive waves.

GOLD 15 Min Chart

There is a fairly symmetrical inverted head and shoulders structure with the neckline at 1820.

Trade Setup: BUY market execution, current price 1815, stop loss 1803 and take profit 1830.

Stop loss: 120 pips

Take profit: 150 pips

Good evening team,

We are turning our attention to commodities rather than currencies tonight as we are still in the bullish camp. We will take a fresh look at the DXY tomorrow leading into the NFP and unemployment data.

Brent Oil has set up an inverted head and shoulders structure suggesting further upside should occur. However, I would like to see a larger move to the upside before entering.

Brent Oil – 1 Hour Chart

Trade Setup: BUY STOP, entry price 73.30, stop loss 71.80 and take profit target 76.30

Stop loss: 150 pips

Take profit: 300 pips

MT5 codes: XBRUSD or UKOUSD

Afternoon team,

Very frustrating on the EURNZD this morning, if anyone can find any info on why the NZD went crazy please let me know. The theory behind the trade was to do with commodity currencies looking like they will move lower today. This includes the AUD, NZD and CAD.

The CADJPY has broken down from a bear flag structure, and oil prices appear to be in a correction phase.

CADJPY 1 Hour chart

Trade Setup: SELL Market execution, current price 87.03, stop loss 87.43 and take profit 86.43.

Stop loss: 40 pips

Take profit: 60 pips

Good afternoon team,

Tonight, the all-important FED Chair speech from Jerome Powell will take place at midnight. Expectations are that bond tapering talk will be pushed back. Even if the bond tapering talk is not pushed back the market has already priced in a taper of some sort – which is why the DXY has rallied initially over the past month. Therefore we see the DXY weakening coming out of the announcement. One thing to note is the FED does everything in its power to support the financial markets. Any signs of the market taking a turn to the downside, they step in with supportive comments. Therefore, their own bias is for a weaker USD. On the CAD front recovering oil prices are also supportive of a short USDCAD trade.

DXY – Daily Chart

This is technically a very bearish setup. The DXY has broken down from the rising wedge structure and has retested the structure. Markets look ready for another leg to the downside.

USDCAD 4 Hour Charts

The key 61% FIB level has been tagged which can be used as a sell zone. We are anticipating a breakdown from the rising channel tonight.

Trade Setup: SELL Market execution, current price 1.2665, stop loss 1.2725 and take profit 1.2350.

Stop loss: 60

Take profit: 315