Good afternoon team,

The S&P500 has moved back to breakeven overnight and we are still live on the AUDUSD, just! We have been waiting for a pullback in the market to buy into either the EURUSD or the GBPUSD. This appears to have taken place, so we are looking to go long against the DXY. The DXY (USD Index) has set up a bearish head and shoulders formation alongside a rising wedge breakdown on a bearish divergence. The technicals are suggesting a bearish reversal on the DXY.

DXY Technical Analysis

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

Trade Setup: BUY STOP, Entry Price 1.0506, stop loss 1.0393 and take profit 1.0726.

Stop loss: 113 pips

Take profit: 220 pips

Good morning team,

I am taking a look at a long trade setup on the AUDUSD this morning. Over the last couple of weeks, risk markets have taken a beating due to interest rate hikes, inflation, geopolitics and specific crypto-related issues. It would be hard to identify just one of them as a reason all assets have declined, it was most likely a combination of everything which has put investors in bearish sentiment. With that said, there has been a lot of pain in the markets, and due to the technical outlook, we see a corrective rally occurring at the minimum over the next couple of days/week. As the saying goes, when others are greedy be fearful, when others are fearful be greedy. At the moment the market is in extreme fear, and we will look to take the contrarian view. We are long the S&P500, and a long trade on the AUDUSD will also be a risk-on position.

AUDUSD 4 Hour Chart

5 waves down to complete a C leg decline, alongside a bullish divergence on the daily time frame.

Trade Setup: BUY market execution, current price 0.6949, stop loss 0.6844 and take profit target 0.7263.

Stop loss: 105 pips

Take profit: 314 pips

Good afternoon team,

Frustrated that gold ruined a clean week, in theory, the decline in the USDJPY should have played into a higher gold price but that did not occur. I am going to revisit gold at a later stage once a more concrete bottom formation has formed.

This afternoon I am taking a contrarian trade, looking for a rebound in the US stock market for either a corrective rally or the start of a new move to the upside.

If you were watching the Technical Analysis (Indices) tab you would have seen the possible Elliott wave count I have been tracking. The S&P500 unfolded as expected, and the final wave c appears to have completed a 5 wave structure to the downside. Looking across the market there has been maximum pain, especially in the crypto market, therefore I believe a relief rally will occur as sellers take a break.

Previous Analysis

SP500 4 Hour Chart

The S&P500 has reached the 3900 support zone, which is 1 -1 parity of wave A. Wave C can be similar in length to wave A. Therefore sellers may use this level as a take-profit zone. We can also count a 5 wave structure in wave c. In theory, a corrective rally should occur in 3 waves or a new 5 wave bullish sequence. Bullish divergence on the RSI 4 hour chart.

S&P500 1 Hour Chart

Trade Setup: BUY market execution, current price 3967, stop loss, 3847 and take profit target 4298.

Stop loss: 120 pips

Take profit: 331 pips

We are trading against the market sentiment so we will look to move our SL to open fairly quickly.

Morning team,

We are executing an Elliott wave trade, the risk-off market sentiment leans in favour of a bearish AUD. The Elliott wave count also aligns with the current fundamental environment. The AUD, NZD and CAD are generally faced with selling pressure during a risk-off market sentiment. We will enter on a BUY stop at the short term resistance level. There is a bullish invalidation level at the wave (i) top at 1.7425.

GBPAUD – Daily Chart

A completed 5 wave decline on the GBPAUD daily chart has taken place. This will lead to a minimum 3 wave corrective rally.

GBPAUD – 4 Hour Chart

GBPAUD – 15 Minute Chart

The wave C corrective rally has only created 4 waves, leaving us to assume a final 5th wave bullish run to the upside is yet to unfold. We are waiting for a breakout above the negative trend line resistance on the 15 minute chart before going long.

Trade Setup: BUY STOP, entry price 1.7687, stop loss 1.7567 and take profit 1.7887

Stop loss: 120 pips

Take profit: 200 pips 

Good morning team,

All financial markets are bleeding out with huge selling pressure across cryptocurrencies and equities. Unfortunately, I missed the AUDJPY short trade setup earlier in the week, so I am turning my attention to the EURJPY which is yet to move lower. The JPY as a safe haven currency should strengthen across the board due to the risk-off market sentiment. There has been a doji daily candle formation indicating a potential reversal, as well as a bearish head and shoulders structure. MACD and RSI are both pointing lower.

EURJPY Daily Chart

EURJPY 1 Hour Chart

Trade Setup: SELL market execution, current price 137.21, stop loss 138.34 and take profit 133.04

Stop loss: 113 pips

Take profit: 417 pips

Good morning team,

We are taking a second look at the EURCHF after being taken out at breakeven on both of our positions.

The pullback in the market appears to be corrective and has set up a bullish structure to buy into.

There has been another higher low indicating a bullish change in trend, as well as an inverse head and shoulders structure. The EURCHF is potentially building to the upside and there is roughly 300 pips on the table for the lower target area.

Trade Setup: BUY market execution, current price 1.0269, stop loss 1.0153 and take profit target 1.0597.

Stop loss: 115 pips

Take profit: 328 pips

Good morning team,

Hard luck on the EURCHF position, we will keep a close eye on the set up and look to re-enter on the next move to the upside.

This morning we are taking a look at the AUDJPY, the pair has set up a 5 wave decline, which indicates a 3 wave counter trend rally will occur at the minimum. The AUDJPY has already setup the first and second leg, therefore we are expecting a final C leg push to the upside before the next move lower. This is a counter trend trade, therefore slightly higher risk.

AUDJPY 15 Minute Chart

Trade Setup: BUY market execution, current price 91.49, stop loss 90.62 and take profit target 93.40. 

Stop loss: 87 pips

Take profit: 191 pips