SILVER (XAGUSD) - BUY - 19th May 2022

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Evening team!

We are taking another look at metals, however turning our attention to silver. There has been a number of technical patterns indicating a bullish phase to the upside should unfold over the next couple of days. The weaker DXY is also playing into higher metal prices.

SILVER Daily Chart

The MACD has crossed over the the upside after a pro-longed period of selling pressure. There is also a major support zone coming into play at the 20.60 area.

There is also an inverted head and shoulders structure in play indicating a bullish move to the upside.

BUY Market execution, current price 21.70, stop loss 20.70 and take profit zone 23.63

Stop loss: 100 pips

Take profit: 193 pips

 

EURUSD - BUY STOP- 19th May 2022

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Good afternoon team,

The S&P500 has moved back to breakeven overnight and we are still live on the AUDUSD, just! We have been waiting for a pullback in the market to buy into either the EURUSD or the GBPUSD. This appears to have taken place, so we are looking to go long against the DXY. The DXY (USD Index) has set up a bearish head and shoulders formation alongside a rising wedge breakdown on a bearish divergence. The technicals are suggesting a bearish reversal on the DXY.

DXY Technical Analysis

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

Trade Setup: BUY STOP, Entry Price 1.0506, stop loss 1.0393 and take profit 1.0726.

Stop loss: 113 pips

Take profit: 220 pips

AUDUSD - BUY - 16th May 2022

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Good morning team,

I am taking a look at a long trade setup on the AUDUSD this morning. Over the last couple of weeks, risk markets have taken a beating due to interest rate hikes, inflation, geopolitics and specific crypto-related issues. It would be hard to identify just one of them as a reason all assets have declined, it was most likely a combination of everything which has put investors in bearish sentiment. With that said, there has been a lot of pain in the markets, and due to the technical outlook, we see a corrective rally occurring at the minimum over the next couple of days/week. As the saying goes, when others are greedy be fearful, when others are fearful be greedy. At the moment the market is in extreme fear, and we will look to take the contrarian view. We are long the S&P500, and a long trade on the AUDUSD will also be a risk-on position.

AUDUSD 4 Hour Chart

5 waves down to complete a C leg decline, alongside a bullish divergence on the daily time frame.

Trade Setup: BUY market execution, current price 0.6949, stop loss 0.6844 and take profit target 0.7263.

Stop loss: 105 pips

Take profit: 314 pips

S&P500 (SPX500) - BUY - 13th May 2022

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Good afternoon team,

Frustrated that gold ruined a clean week, in theory, the decline in the USDJPY should have played into a higher gold price but that did not occur. I am going to revisit gold at a later stage once a more concrete bottom formation has formed.

This afternoon I am taking a contrarian trade, looking for a rebound in the US stock market for either a corrective rally or the start of a new move to the upside.

If you were watching the Technical Analysis (Indices) tab you would have seen the possible Elliott wave count I have been tracking. The S&P500 unfolded as expected, and the final wave c appears to have completed a 5 wave structure to the downside. Looking across the market there has been maximum pain, especially in the crypto market, therefore I believe a relief rally will occur as sellers take a break.

Previous Analysis

SP500 4 Hour Chart

The S&P500 has reached the 3900 support zone, which is 1 -1 parity of wave A. Wave C can be similar in length to wave A. Therefore sellers may use this level as a take-profit zone. We can also count a 5 wave structure in wave c. In theory, a corrective rally should occur in 3 waves or a new 5 wave bullish sequence. Bullish divergence on the RSI 4 hour chart.

S&P500 1 Hour Chart

Trade Setup: BUY market execution, current price 3967, stop loss, 3847 and take profit target 4298.

Stop loss: 120 pips

Take profit: 331 pips

We are trading against the market sentiment so we will look to move our SL to open fairly quickly.

GBPAUD - BUY STOP- 12th May 2022

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Morning team,

We are executing an Elliott wave trade, the risk-off market sentiment leans in favour of a bearish AUD. The Elliott wave count also aligns with the current fundamental environment. The AUD, NZD and CAD are generally faced with selling pressure during a risk-off market sentiment. We will enter on a BUY stop at the short term resistance level. There is a bullish invalidation level at the wave (i) top at 1.7425.

GBPAUD – Daily Chart

A completed 5 wave decline on the GBPAUD daily chart has taken place. This will lead to a minimum 3 wave corrective rally.

GBPAUD – 4 Hour Chart

GBPAUD – 15 Minute Chart

The wave C corrective rally has only created 4 waves, leaving us to assume a final 5th wave bullish run to the upside is yet to unfold. We are waiting for a breakout above the negative trend line resistance on the 15 minute chart before going long.

Trade Setup: BUY STOP, entry price 1.7687, stop loss 1.7567 and take profit 1.7887

Stop loss: 120 pips

Take profit: 200 pips 

GOLD - BUY - 12th May 2022

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Good morning team,

We are taking a second crack at gold based on the technical zone the metal is trading at. Overnight the US reported another increase in inflation, therefore the “real interest rate” is moving further into the negative territory, despite the recent rate hike from the FED.

During the last FED meeting, Jerome Powell stated they would not be looking at rate hikes larger than 0.50%, therefore this should provide some fuel for gold to move higher.

GOLD and the USDJPY generally have an inverse correlation. The USDJPY is breaking down from a rising trendline support with a bearish divergence. Therefore this supports higher gold prices in the short term at least.

USDJPY Daily Chart

GOLD Daily Chart

There are 2 key trend lines coming into play at the 1850 support level, and the RSI and MACD are reaching oversold conditions.

GOLD 1 Hour Chart

Trade Setup: BUY market execution, current price 1853, stop loss 1831 and take profit 1890. 

Stop loss: 220 pips

Take profit: 370 pips

If the trade moves as expected, there is a chance of running the take profit higher.

 

EURJPY - SELL - 11th May 2022

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Good morning team,

All financial markets are bleeding out with huge selling pressure across cryptocurrencies and equities. Unfortunately, I missed the AUDJPY short trade setup earlier in the week, so I am turning my attention to the EURJPY which is yet to move lower. The JPY as a safe haven currency should strengthen across the board due to the risk-off market sentiment. There has been a doji daily candle formation indicating a potential reversal, as well as a bearish head and shoulders structure. MACD and RSI are both pointing lower.

EURJPY Daily Chart

EURJPY 1 Hour Chart

Trade Setup: SELL market execution, current price 137.21, stop loss 138.34 and take profit 133.04

Stop loss: 113 pips

Take profit: 417 pips

GOLD - BUY - 5th May 2022

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Good morning team,

After the wick down on the GBPUSD, I wanted to wait until post-FED announcement before positioning in the market.

Whilst the FED raised interest rates by 0.50%, they also stated that they were not looking at more aggressive rate hikes in the coming meetings. This has put a cap on the year-end target for interest rate hikes.

With this in mind, and inflation remaining high, it has created a bullish environment for GOLD. Especially considering the recent sell-off across metals. We see the recent decline as corrective and has possibly reached a bottom.

GOLD – 4 Hour Chart

Trade Setup: BUY market execution, current price 1886, stop loss 1860, take profit 1944.

Stop loss: 260 pips

Take profit: 580 pips

EURCHF - BUY - 3rd May 2022

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Good morning team,

We are taking a second look at the EURCHF after being taken out at breakeven on both of our positions.

The pullback in the market appears to be corrective and has set up a bullish structure to buy into.

There has been another higher low indicating a bullish change in trend, as well as an inverse head and shoulders structure. The EURCHF is potentially building to the upside and there is roughly 300 pips on the table for the lower target area.

Trade Setup: BUY market execution, current price 1.0269, stop loss 1.0153 and take profit target 1.0597.

Stop loss: 115 pips

Take profit: 328 pips

AUDJPY - BUY - 28th April 2022

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Good morning team,

 

Hard luck on the EURCHF position, we will keep a close eye on the set up and look to re-enter on the next move to the upside.

This morning we are taking a look at the AUDJPY, the pair has set up a 5 wave decline, which indicates a 3 wave counter trend rally will occur at the minimum. The AUDJPY has already setup the first and second leg, therefore we are expecting a final C leg push to the upside before the next move lower. This is a counter trend trade, therefore slightly higher risk.

AUDJPY 15 Minute Chart

Trade Setup: BUY market execution, current price 91.49, stop loss 90.62 and take profit target 93.40. 

Stop loss: 87 pips

Take profit: 191 pips