Good afternoon team,
Tonight, the all-important FED Chair speech from Jerome Powell will take place at midnight. Expectations are that bond tapering talk will be pushed back. Even if the bond tapering talk is not pushed back the market has already priced in a taper of some sort – which is why the DXY has rallied initially over the past month. Therefore we see the DXY weakening coming out of the announcement. One thing to note is the FED does everything in its power to support the financial markets. Any signs of the market taking a turn to the downside, they step in with supportive comments. Therefore, their own bias is for a weaker USD. On the CAD front recovering oil prices are also supportive of a short USDCAD trade.
DXY – Daily Chart
This is technically a very bearish setup. The DXY has broken down from the rising wedge structure and has retested the structure. Markets look ready for another leg to the downside.
USDCAD 4 Hour Charts
The key 61% FIB level has been tagged which can be used as a sell zone. We are anticipating a breakdown from the rising channel tonight.
Trade Setup: SELL Market execution, current price 1.2665, stop loss 1.2725 and take profit 1.2350.
Stop loss: 60
Take profit: 315