Good evening trading floor,

A couple of positions are on the way out this evening. Firstly, we are looking for a continuation on the NZDJPY position.

NZDJPY – 4 Hour Charts

The trend line resistance worked well for our position last week. We are now seeing a rising channel / corrective structure higher, this can also be known as a bear flag. A bear flag pattern can occur prior to another drop in the market. We are no waiting for the next breakdown to enter a short position on the pair.

NZDJPY – 1 Hour Charts

Trade Setup: SELL STOP – Entry Point 74.80, stop loss 75.25 and take profit 74.00-73.80.

Stop loss: 45 pips

Take profit: 80-100 pips

If the market breaks to the upside of the flag formation that indicates a continuation to the upside may occur, so you can close down the order.

Good afternoon team!

We are looking to go short on the AUDUSD, please check today’s member’s video if you have not already. We breakdown the USD index, this will explain from a technical perspective why we are looking for USD long opportunities.

AUDUSD – Daily Charts

Daily Charts are showing a bearish divergence on the RSI signalling buyers are running out of momentum. We can also see a rising wedge formation which can indicate reversal opportunities as price action thins.

AUDUSD – 4 Hour Charts

Same here on the 4-hour charts, bearish divergence, the AUDUSD has also returned inside the rising wedge formation after tagging the 0.7800 resistance.

AUDUSD 1 Hour Charts

We can see a potential head and shoulders formation on the 1-hour time frame. We are looking to enter here on the right shoulder anticipating a move below the neckline.

Trade Setup: SELL Market execution, current price 0.7750, stop loss 0.7815 and take profit left open to run but targeting the 0.7630-0.7560 levels.

Stop loss: 65 pips

Take profit: 120-190 pips

Good evening guys,

USD strength coming into play at the moment. Joe Biden has been confirmed by Congress as the next President of the US. It appears as though its a classic buy the rumour sell the fact scenario. That means the USD has been hammered down relentlessly in anticipation of a Joe Biden victory, now he has been confirmed by Congress, we are seeing sellers take profit on the USD short positions (or EURUSD long positions). The EURUSD is setting up nicely for a possible sell position.

This is to keep you posted on a set up we are watching.

EURUSD – Daily Charts

Bearish divergence coming into play on the daily charts which has worked well previously at spotting reversal opportunities. There are a couple of trend lines to be aware of on the longer term charts.

EURUSD 1 Hour Charts

We can see a rising wedge, and a possible ending diagonal formation. We are waiting for a breakdown from the wedge to enter short positions. Ideally we would see a breakout and a retest, or a breakout and close on the 4 hour charts out side of the wedge.

We will keep you posted once a trade has been activated in telegram. If you are able to watch this yourself, jump in the live chat and let us know your thoughts on entry points. This isn’t a simple sell stop play. The 1.2150 support appears to be a reasonable initial target zone.

Good evening team,

Just a quick update on what has happened throughout the day.

Crazy scenes in the US this morning yet markets have maintained their peaks shrugging off the conflict. Congress confirmed Joe Biden’s election victory shortly after the riots. With the Democrats now looking to take control of all areas, we need to understand what policy changes will come into play in the new year.

Firstly, Joe Biden is set to be sworn in during the peak of the Covid-19 outbreak, therefore it is likely we will see further lockdowns across the US. This may result in a short term risk off scenario in the coming weeks. Secondly, Biden has suggested they will look to increase taxes for high earners and corporations, however not for smaller businesses with less than 50 employees. There is a possibility of a rotation out of major cap stocks that have dominated the market throughout 2020 and Covid-19 (Apple, Tesla, Netflix, Google etc) and into smaller companies. Biden is also planning for a clean energy revolution, therefore keep an eye on the renewable energy space, oil companies may take a hit. Tax hikes will impact the market at some stage, again this may result in a short term risk off scenario.

Thirdly, we can expect even further stimulus and money printing throughout 2021. The Republicans are no longer able to block any further stimulus packages. Fundamentally, the vast money printing paints a very bearish picture for the USD. Traders have anticipated a Joe Biden victory for a while, therefore the outcome may already be priced into the USD. This could be a buy the rumour sell the fact scenario.

Tonight we are turning our attention to the NZDJPY. We see a possible risk off playing coming this evening, meaning weaker commodity related currencies, and strength back into the USD and JPY.

NZDJPY – Monthly Charts

The monthly charts are painting a pretty bullish picture as there has been a bull flag breakout, however on the shorter term we see an opportunity for a retracement trade.

NZDJPY – 1 Hour Charts

The RSI is signalling a bearish divergence meaning buyers are running out of steam, we are also seeing a lot of congestion at the peak of 75.20.

Trade Setup: SELL Market Execution, current price 75.20, stop loss 75.60 and take profit 74.60-74.30.

Stop loss: 40 pips

Take profit: 60-90 pips

Move SL to open once we see a break below 74.90.

Happy new year trading floor!

Hopefully we start the NY with a bang.

This year we are looking to position with some more slightly longer term plays building into swing positions. This will be along side our day trading positions. This means we could be holding a trade for a couple of weeks, giving us the opportunity to build additional positions in along the way. Some positions may require a wider SL and lower leverage, but our targets will also be further away. Once a position comes into the green we can build another trade into the trend on any pull backs.

With this strategy in mind, we are taking a close look at the AUDNZD.

AUDNZD – Weekly Charts

The AUDNZD had a strong bounce on a key support zone at 1.0440. This support zone is a historic key support level. As you can see, the AUDNZD is still relatively low on its 20 year range, which suggests there is potential for further upside. The AUDNZD has been range trading between 1.13-1.04 for roughly 6 years.

AUDNZD – Daily Charts

Taking a look at the daily charts, we can see a nice 5 wave structure higher making a possible wave 1 on the larger degree. Elliott wave theory would suggest the market could be setting up for another 5 wave structure that will extend above the major wave 1 at 1.1100. However, first there is a possibility of a pull back into the 1.0600 region to form a wave 2 structure. This will be a possible buy zone for us. Wave 2’s can be deep, and eliminate the majority of wave 1. The AUDNZD must hold its price above 1.0430.

We are looking to position a small position now, and an additional position on a pull back or once the 1.0730 resistance is cleared.

AUDNZD – 4 Hour Charts

Trade Setup: BUY – Market execution, current price 1.0685, stop loss 1.0600, take profit left open to run. Long term targets can be found at 1.1000 (if the plan progresses).

Stop loss: 85 pips

Take profit: 300+

This first position is our “anchor” and we will not be using a full risked position, we will add further leverage at a later stage.

If our SL is hit, we will be looking to reload the position from the 1.0555 support zone with an even greater risk V reward. As always we will keep you posted on any updates.

Good afternoon team,

We are seeing continued selling pressure on the USD leading into the new year due to the continued money printing in the US, which is pushing global equities and commodities higher. Joe Biden is set to become the new President of the US on January the 6th (depending on the outcome of the Electoral College vote count). There is a possibility that a number of the Republican party will disagree with the Presidential vote outcome which may result in uncertainty in the market. However, markets are expecting further stimulus from Biden appointed Janet Yellen who is set to become the new Sec Treasury. Looking across the globe the covid-19 pandemic is escalating further with a record number of cases being seen across Europe and record hospitalizations in the US. Both the pandemic and endless money printing provides a bullish sentiment for metals. With that in mind, we are looking to take a long position on Silver which is still trading at a 50% discount from its record high compared to gold which has already reached its 2011-2012 peak.

Silver Daily Charts

The daily charts are showing a retest on the 24.90 support zone and another break above 25.90. 25.90 is now crucial support and our SL will position below this level. There is also a trendline support in play.

Silver 1 Hour Charts

Trade Setup: BUY Market execution, current price 26.55, stop loss set at 25.40 and take profit 28.40. 

Stop loss: 115 pips

Take profit: 185 pips.

Markets are very volatile at the moment, we will be looking to move our SL to open once we are in a profit of 40-50 pips. 

Good afternoon team,

Great start to the week with USDCAD and EURAUD hitting the TP targets. The markets reversed a number of the risk off moves over night as the US Government votes on the next stimulus package.

The US China tensions appear to be increasing with the US implementing further restrictions on Chinese officials. The visa restrictions affect officials that are believed to be responsible for the repression of religious practitioners and ethnic minority groups. Further actions are expected which include tighter visa restrictions on Chinese Communist Party members and a ban on goods made with forced labor. The trade war has negatively impacted the AUD previously.

The recent Covid-19 outbreak in Sydney and other parts of the world may also weigh down the risk on currency. The AUD is the main casualties of a negative market sentiment.

Technical Analysis

AUDCHF – Weekly Charts

The AUDCHF is trading at a historic weekly negative trend line. This has been used on a number of occasions as resistance and an area to sell down from.

AUDCHF – 1 Hour Charts

This setup appears to be a text book head and shoulders formation. Keep in mind the 0.6740 level is the invalidation point. A break above that zone will indicate a move to new highs.

We are looking to enter a short position, expecting a break below the neck line towards the 0.6600 level.

Trade setup: SELL Market execution, current price 0.6708, stop loss 0.6753 and take profit 0.6600.

Stop loss: 45 pips

Take profit: 108 pips

Good afternoon team,

Risk off flows are coming into play this morning as the market digests the $900 billion stimulus deal in the US and the second strand of corona-virus that has been detected across parts of Europe. Please read the full fundamental report posted in telegram.

EURAUD – Daily Charts

The EURAUD is trading on a key trend line support. That daily charts are also showing a number of rejection candles on the support zone.

EURAUD 1 Hour Charts

Falling wedge breakout followed by a retest and a potential inverted head and shoulders formation.

Trade Setup:

Buy – Market execution, current price 1.6095, stop loss 1.6030 and take profit 1.6230

Stop loss: 65 pips

Take profit: 135 pips

Good evening team,

A nice move on Silver and Gold overnight, well done those trading the breakouts. We will look to reposition on pull backs, as long as the technicals agree next week. I have highlighted a potential entry point on gold in telegram.

Today we are taking a look at the USDCAD. The pair is reaching a crucial support zone. Whilst it is difficult buying the USD due to the endless money printing, we see a possible short term reversal opportunity. We are yet to hear about the second stimulus check, furthermore we are yet to see the results from the Senate run off. The Republicans can still prevent a Democratic take over by maintaining their position in the Senate. If they manage to do so, markets will react negatively as they are less likely to approve a much larger stimulus package which is wanted by the Democrats.

Technical Analysis

Weekly Charts

The USDCAD is trading on a major support zone which has been used for areas to buy and sell from over the past 20 years. This could be classed as a historic support level.

Potentially a flag formation on the weekly charts, however this is very ambitious. However, we can see a spin top weekly candle formation from last week which can indicate reversal opportunities.

USDCAD – 4 Hour Charts

We can see a well structured falling wedge formation on the 4 hour charts which can indicate reversal opportunities. The key is to wait for a breakout above the wedge formation at 1.2790 to enter long positions on the pair.

Trade Setup : BUY STOP – Entry price 1.2792, stop loss 1.2710 and take profit 1.2922.

Stop loss: 82 pips

Take profit: 130 pips

It would be beneficial to watch for a breakout rather than enter buy stops incase there is a fake breakout to the upside. If the market breaks back down into the wedge after a fake breakout we will look to close the position.

If the order is not activated before the weekend close out and reposition on Monday.