7th April – Position Update

Morning team,

We are looking to build multiple positions here on the EURCHF, our first entry point is going to be above the most recent swing high. We have removed the very first position on the 31st March, and have kept our position from the 5th of April.

First Position: BUY STOP – entry price 1.0204, stop loss 1.0082 and take profit target 1.0446.

Stop loss: 122 pips

Take profit: 242 pips

 

5th April Position Updated (second position)

The decline is still in 3 waves which indicates a corrective decline rather than impulsive. Whilst the price action remains above 0.9970 we will be looking for a bullish move to the upside.

NEW TRADE SETUP (second entry point)- BUY STOP – entry price 1.0243, stop loss 1.0081 and take profit target 1.0522.

Stop loss: 162 pips

Take profit: 279 pips

 

31st March : (cancel position)

Afternoon team,

The EUR has begun advancing against a number of major currencies due to a number of economic reasons. Firstly, Russia has promised during peace talks to reduce its attacks on Kyiv. The shift in tone in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks suggested “the conflict may be moving to a more localized phase with some of the more extreme tail risk scenarios reducing in probability,” analysts from JPMorgan said in a note to clients on Wednesday that recommended buying EUR/USD. Whilst there is some optimism over the Moscow-Kyiv talks, inflation reports fanned expectations that rising costs, which were accelerated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, would force Europe to rate hikes sooner rather than later, supporting the euro. Preliminary data shows that German annual inflation rose to its highest level in more than 40 years in March as prices of natural gas and oil products soared. Spain’s flash CPI data for March showed prices rising at their fastest since May 1985.

The EU is set to provide the next round of inflation data on Friday with the forecast set at 6.6% up from 5.9% YoY. Any result inline or above the forecast will put upside pressure on the EUR. The CHF may also see some downside pressure as the initial shock of the Ukraine and Russia conflict fades.

EURCHF – Technical Analysis

weekly bullish divergence on the RIS along with a MACD cross over.

The daily chart is showing a possible complete 5 wave decline, which indicates a 3 wave corrective rally should occur at the minimum.

The sharp rise on the 1-hour chart is in 5 waves, followed by an ABC corrective decline into the iv (4th) wave support zone.

Trade Setup: BUY STOP, entry price 1.0330, stop loss 1.0194 and take profit target set at 1.0611.

Stop loss: 136 pips

Take profit: 281 pips

Good morning team,

 

The GBPAUD has moved into a major double bottom zone at 1.74 and has set up a bullish divergence on the daily time frame suggesting a counter-trend rally may occur. There has also been a breakout from a falling wedge/channel structure, followed by a retest of the same structure. We are looking to ridge the GBPAUD higher. Looking at other similar cross pairs, EURAUD, EURNZD and the GBPNZD, they all appear to be setting up similar bullish reversal structures.

GBPAUD – Daily Chart

Trade Setup: BUY market execution, current price 1.7502, stop loss 1.7396 and take profit target 1.7729.

Stop loss: 106 pips

Take profit: 227 pips

 

12th April UPDATE (Position 2 BUY STOP)

Good evening team,

Tonight the US reports the next round of inflation data and the forecast is a large one. The markets are already moving in favour of the USD as fears of interest rate hikes are continuing to rise. Any result the comes out inline or above the market forecast could push the USDCHF further to the upside. We have 1 position in the green, and are looking to enter the market on the recent a-b-c corrective structure.