Good afternoon team,
The AUDUSD and GOLD positions are tracking well so far, we will be looking to move the SL on the AUDUSD position to open soon. As we are in the green on this position and will have 0 risk, I am looking to enter a short trade on the EURUSD leading into the NFP and US unemployment data this evening. The FOMC minutes showed the FED is potentially ready to begin raising interest rates early-mid 2022 and will begin to reduce its balance sheet. This indicates a stronger DXY over the coming days/weeks. Additionally, any positive data during the NFP tomorrow morning should play further into the FED’s hands. Technically speaking the EURUSD is still in a bearish trend, so we are trading with the fundamentals and technicals.
EURUSD Daily Chart
Based on the Elliott wave count, we are expecting a final move to the downside to complete a final 5th wave of a C wave correction.
The RSI has already broken down from its rising trendline support indicating a decline is underway – This has been a leading indicator of a change in trend.
The 23% FIB retracement can provide possible targets for the short side.
EURUSD 4 Hour Chart
We are looking to position now, expecting a breakdown from the rising trendline support tonight. The C wave top is our bearish invalidation level at 1.1389. Targets can be found at 1.1185-1.1045.
Trade Setup: SELL market execution, current price 1.1300, stop loss 1.1392 and take profit target 1.1045
Stop loss: 92 pips
Take profit: 255 pips